MS, and LA are more likely to flip than Arkansas, surprisingly.
Very true.
This is because Arkansas has the lowest black population of any Southern state and it's white population is mostly Scots-Irish folks, even now.
I can't emphasize enough how the Democrats' slide amongst white voters is not uniform. It is the white Scot-Irish folks, many of whom live in the South and Border states, that have produced a disproportionate number of defections from the Democratic ranks at all levels. These voters have certain qualities that drive this. One is that they are, disproportionately, living in places where coal is a big deal. But that's only part of it. Another is that these folks disproportionately are churchgoers, own guns, and have a socially conservative outlook on all issues, even when they are economically liberal. An additional factor is that these folks are intensely patriotic; they produce a huge percentage of America's soldiers and sailors.
Underscoring all of this is that these folks have a minimal sense of ethnic identity. They view themselves as "Americans", pure and simply. They don't really view themselves as Scottish or Irish; they identify themselves as Americans, and their roots in this country go back to Colonial days. They have never looked with favor on appeals to folks as hyphenated Americans, and, as such, are not likely to look with favor on the kind of racial, ethnic, and gender politics the Democratic Party has used to boost its majorities.
These are the folks that are driving the GOP trends in WV, TN, KY, MO, AR, and in the mountain regions of VA and NC. Virginia's "Fighting 9th" CD was once a liberal district that elected a liberal Democrat; now, it's all the way with the GOP and not likely to switch back. If this hadn't happened, VA would be out of reach for the GOP today to the point where it would be at the level of MI in the Democratic column. These are the folks that have made MO and AR solid GOP at all levels. Of all these areas, only MO shows any sort of possible pathway back for the Democrats.
Poll
