absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[dspNY]

Alachua (Florida Gators/Gainesville): Dems add +1200 to their margin, it's almost 2:1 now. That means the Gators on campus are voting

Leon (Florida State/Tallahassee): Dems add 1661 to their margin, approaching a 2:1 lead in party ID there as well

[dspNY]

A couple of big Republican counties now:

Lee County: Republicans add about +2100 to their margin
Collier County: Republicans add about +1800 to their margin

[dspNY]

A couple of big Republican counties now:

Lee County: Republicans add about +2100 to their margin
Collier County: Republicans add about +1800 to their margin

Where can you find these info?

On their county elections websites. You just have to do the math and cross reference with the state elections website here

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[dspNY]

So, how are FL, NC, and CO looking?

Orange just came in:

20804 early votes, about 1200 more than yesterday

Dems add 3400 to their EV margin and 600 to their VBM margin so we are +4000 there today, not including NPAs. NPAs almost outvoted Republicans there today (fell short by 500)

[dspNY]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  3m3 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Nevada we found Hillary leading 54/44 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In North Carolina we found Hillary leading 59/40 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Wisconsin we found Hillary leading 60/34 among early voters

With 60% of the electorate already voting in NV and 50% already voting in NC. The 59/40 was a wider margin than Obama 4 years ago where they found him up 9 with early voters at the end of the EV window

[dspNY]

Trump would have to win the ED vote by 20% to win the state (NC). Think about that for a moment.

Here's the reference from PPP 4 years ago on the early vote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/florida-and-north-carolina-going-down-to-the-wire.html#more

[dspNY]

"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

Steve Schale

Thru Thurs, Dems took lead in FL

Dem: 2,099,906 (+2,670)
GOP: 2,097,236
NPA: 1,087,063

Woohoo!

[dspNY]

Broward County:

12.5K VBM ballots. Dems 6499, GOP 2818, NPA with the rest
36,123 voted early-in person. Dems 18,739, GOP 7,568, NPA around 11K

Dems add around 14K in Broward

[dspNY]

Duval County (leans GOP):

Dems win by 800 votes. They trail by approximately 1600 in party ID out of over 250K votes cast, or 0.6%

[dspNY]

Hillsborough County:

Dems win VBM by 270, win in-person early vote by 1506 for a total win of 1,776 votes. Lead is almost 22K

[dspNY]

Democrats win Pinellas County (St. Petersburg) by 250. GOP lead narrowed to 1,249 votes. If there's one major swing county I'm worried about in FL, this is it

[dspNY]

Democrats win Pinellas County (St. Petersburg) by 250. GOP lead narrowed to 1,249 votes. If there's one major swing county I'm worried about in FL, this is it

How did Pinellas vote in 2008 and 2012?

Obama +5.6 in 2012
Obama +8.2 in 2008
Bush won it by 226 votes in 2004 when he won the state by 5
Gore won it by 4% in 2000

[dspNY]

Clark turnout is crazy. expected to be over 50K now

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794708214264668160

[dspNY]

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

If Clinton is winning 41.5% of whites in Florida she wins FL going away. Obama only won 39% of Florida whites and Clinton's margin among a burgeoning Latino electorate will be larger than Obama's margin over Romney

Correction: Obama won only 37% of Florida whites, Romney won 61. So that's even WORSE for Trump if he is underperforming Romney by 6-7 points among whites. That would equal a Clinton +5 or Clinton +6 margin

[dspNY]

Orange County FL just came in.

24609 early votes. Dems with a +3100 margin. GOP outvotes indies by about 700. Dems win VBM by about 700 to make a +3800 margin today

[dspNY]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

With 5.25 million votes cast out of approximately 9 million (or 58.3% of the total vote) already in the can, Trump leads by 17 among 68% of that. Assuming 3% go to third parties, Trump leads Clinton 57-40-3 among this group. That means his lead in raw votes among white voters is about 607K. There are approximately 3.75 million Floridians left to vote. We'll be charitable and keep the percentage of white voters left in the pool at 68%. For Trump to hit Romney's 61% with white voters, he has to win about 2/3 of the remaining white vote. And this projection also assumes that Latino and African-American percentages do not rise or trend toward Clinton. If they do, Trump needs even more. The white vote on E-Day would have to be something like 65-32-3 for him

[dspNY]

Assuming Latino percentages stay the same (they are 14.4% of the vote now), they make up 756K. Clinton would net about 160K. Assuming African-Americans go 90/10 instead of 94/5 like 2012, (they are 12.2% of the vote now), Clinton nets 512K. That gives Clinton a 668K margin, which beats Trump's 610K margin with white voters.

Now push that Latino margin to 2-1 Clinton. She nets another 80K votes on top of that. And that still assumes the electorate does not become more diverse over the last 3-4 days

[dspNY]

Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf

Huge spike. Up 7K from yesterday. Trump's goose is starting to get cooked

[dspNY]

They just extended voting hours at a Mexican supermarket to 10 pm.  Close to 1000 people in line.  If you have a panic button GOP, find it.

Raston just now.

Don't think it really is that many, however it does illustrate a point.

The firewall just gets taller and taller. Can't wait to hear about the net gains in NV tomorrow.

[dspNY]

This is why Clinton is still in Ohio: Franklin County expected to beat 2012 EV turnout

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/04/early-voting-long-lines.html

[dspNY]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Angry Puerto Ricans!

[dspNY]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Angry Puerto Ricans!

oh waow

And they could vote like their New York brothers and sisters...then Targetsmart guy might be on to something...

[dspNY]

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

What does this mean?

Hillary Clinton is one big step closer to being President. Dems have turned out 141K more low propensity voters in FL

[dspNY]

Additionally, Catherine-Cortez Masto is likely to be the next senator from Nevada the way things are going there

[dspNY]

Washoe:

Dems 6,058
GOP 5,820

If that's a simulation of E-Day turnout in swing or even Lean GOP counties, Trump is gonna get smoked. Dems go into E-Day with a larger advantage in Washoe than 2012