2021 Canadian general election prediction thread

[DC Al Fine]

Liberal > Tory
Liberal + NDP < 170

[DC Al Fine]

Hot take: The PPC will win a second seat.

[DC Al Fine]

I'd go with Liberal minority again. Possibly small gains for the CPC in places like Quebec, Nova etc. 

Hot take: The PPC will win a second seat.

Second? They need a first, first.  It seems the CPC may have improved in Quebec, unsurprisingly, so I imagine even if the PPC do relatively well Bernier will still find it hard to win.

Yes that's why it's a hot take

[DC Al Fine]

Reupping my prediction along with some takes. Some takes are hotter than others.

1) The Liberals will win more seats than the Tories, but Liberal + NDP will fall short of a majority.

2) The Liberals will win the popular vote.

3) The Tories will do much better than expected in Atlantic Canada but not elsewhere, leading to hot takes galore from all sides early in the night that don't come to fruition.

4) Maxime Bernier wins Beauce fairly comfortably

5) The PPC makes a breakthrough somewhere and wins 2-3 seats (my bet is on rural southwestern Ontario)

6) The Greens will be reduced to one seat

7) The NDP will breakthrough in Toronto and win 2-3 seats

8 ) The NDP will come out of nowhere to win a seat most people weren't expecting

9) The Tories will save at least one seat thanks to vote splitting on the right. (Most likely Banff-Airdrie, but possibly somewhere else)

10a) One or both of the Liberal candidates fired for sexual impropriety will win

10b) And they will make the difference between a working majority and a minority for the Liberals/NDP

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/BenWoodfinden/status/1439740687017291783

I resemble that remark

[DC Al Fine]

Reupping my prediction along with some takes. Some takes are hotter than others.

1) The Liberals will win more seats than the Tories, but Liberal + NDP will fall short of a majority.

2) The Liberals will win the popular vote.

3) The Tories will do much better than expected in Atlantic Canada but not elsewhere, leading to hot takes galore from all sides early in the night that don't come to fruition.

4) Maxime Bernier wins Beauce fairly comfortably

5) The PPC makes a breakthrough somewhere and wins 2-3 seats (my bet is on rural southwestern Ontario)

6) The Greens will be reduced to one seat

7) The NDP will breakthrough in Toronto and win 2-3 seats

8 ) The NDP will come out of nowhere to win a seat most people weren't expecting

9) The Tories will save at least one seat thanks to vote splitting on the right. (Most likely Banff-Airdrie, but possibly somewhere else)

10a) One or both of the Liberal candidates fired for sexual impropriety will win

10b) And they will make the difference between a working majority and a minority for the Liberals/NDP

In keeping with tradition I got most of my predictions wrong.