I'm a bit too fond of these cycle theories.
When 2020 looked like 1980, I would have said 2032, but now 2020 seems to be looking a lot more like 1896 than 1980. So...2036?
You think the GOP is going to lose one fewer election in a row than it did after literally being blamed for the Great Depression?
When you take into account the fact that Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 elections, and that Texas is likely to flip during this decade and make the EC map extremely favorable to Democrats, yes.
Maybe if there's a D EV win/PV loss, there will finally be bipartisan support for abolishing the Electoral College. And the Democrats can unilaterally disarm themselves. Again.
The fastest growing demographic in the nation and in Texas is trending Republican. Are Democrats likely to win statewide in Texas once this decade? Sure, I'll make that bet given the sheer number of statewide races taking place within the next 10 years. It is likely to remain a Republican-leaning state for some time, though, and I don't think it'll flip in a presidential election until Democrats get a significantly better national environment than 2020's (which itself is unlikely until the next GOP administration).
We don't know if the Hispanic R vote this year is a trend or a one-time event.
Even if it is a trend, they're still a D-leaning demographic, just less so, and Texas suburbs are still growing and Demifying at an extreme rate.
We don't, but if it looks like a trend, shouldn't we assume it's more likely than not to be one? It could continue to the point where they became an R-leaning demographic (although I'm not saying this is likely) and it would certainly make Texas' leftwards shift much slower.
And the thing is, Hispanics (and Blacks for that matter), don't even have to become R leaning groups in order to throw off "Emerging Democratic Majority" predictions. Democratic coalitions in most states are still dependent on running up the score with non-whites, so the GOP just needs to ensure those groups are less overwhelmingly Democratic. Hispanics being a 60/40 group instead of 70/30 or Blacks being an 80/20 group instead of 95-5 would make a huge impact.
Poll
