Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[DC Al Fine]

But settlers and the Haredim are some of the most disliked groups in Israeli society and especially politics. The majority of Israelis share almost none of Haredi political priorities (huge majorities support civil marriage, separation of religion and state, breaking up the chief rabbinate, public transit on Saturday, drafting Haredim, gay rights, etc). At some point people are going to get tired of their Likud votes empowering Haredim.

Is that point before or after the Haredim become the majority of Israeli Jews? The Haredi population is exploding, and current official projections are for them to be >20% of Israeli Jews by 2028 and half  by 2060. This excludes settlers and others who may be Haredim-friendly.

Assuming Netanyahu succeeds in annexing the West Bank, this makes for interesting demographics down the line with a Palestinian underclass that may or may not have any rights, an economic drain of Haredim, and the remainder having to support the economy. Of course if Haredi growth levels off (as is starting to happen for Palestinians), things ease up a bit.

Well, a couple things...

Bibi's annexation idea included only the actual settlements, probably includeming area c. This would add all of the Jews in the West Bank but only a fraction of the Palestinians. It's a profoundly dumb idea, but it's not nearly as radical and demographically meaningful as annexing the whole West Bank.

Also, the Haredi demographic bomb is one of the most overrated in Israeli social and political discourse. Haredi birthrates are dropping, and the modernization and secularization of the community is happening pretty rapidly, often due to basic economic necessity that goodies from the Haredim in government don't help with. The joke is that Haredi women give birth to a greater number of secular babies than secular women, because the rate of people leaving Orthodox Judaism is so rapid.

I think more likely is that we reach some kind of equilibrium where the population is basically a third Arab, third secular Jewish, and a third Orthodox. As somebody not particularly invested in the idea of Zionism I don't really mind that outcome. But most Jewish Israelis probably would.

All the English sources I can find are either agnostic about or indicate the opposite of what you are asserting in the text I've bolded.



The Haredim appaear to have an excellent retention rate. The trend instead seems to be towards polarization, with  non-Haredi religious Jews trending secular with a minority going Haredi.



Even at a lesser retention rate, the Haredi seem to be gaining on the non-Haredi Jewish population.



Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.



Unfortunately, I couldn't find any sources on the change in Haredi birth rates or how many babies younger Jewish women are having by sect, but it seems like Haredi birth rates have quite a ways to fall before its comparable to secular Jews.

Do you have any other sources, perhaps something in Hebrew that I could run through Google Translate? I suspect you might be taking an overly opimistic view of Israeli secularism, perhaps due to the pillarization of Israeli society.

[DC Al Fine]

All the English sources I can find are either agnostic about or indicate the opposite of what you are asserting in the text I've bolded.

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The Haredim appaear to have an excellent retention rate. The trend instead seems to be towards polarization, with  non-Haredi religious Jews trending secular with a minority going Haredi.

Image

Even at a lesser retention rate, the Haredi seem to be gaining on the non-Haredi Jewish population.

Image

Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.

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Unfortunately, I couldn't find any sources on the change in Haredi birth rates or how many babies younger Jewish women are having by sect, but it seems like Haredi birth rates have quite a ways to fall before its comparable to secular Jews.

Do you have any other sources, perhaps something in Hebrew that I could run through Google Translate? I suspect you might be taking an overly opimistic view of Israeli secularism, perhaps due to the pillarization of Israeli society.

Your numbers seem to forget the Negev Bedouin. By 2045, there will likely be as many as 840,000 Negev Bedouin, as their population doubles every 14-15 years.

Probably, I was mainly concerned with Jews.

[DC Al Fine]

Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.

Huh? 50% of secular Jews in Israel are having 3-6 children?

Someone pointed out a while back, that Israeli secular Jews have the highest birth rate of any secular group. Israel has a birth rate of about 3.1 kids/woman, but there aren't enough Muslims/religious Jews for the birth rate to be that high, unless secular Jews have kids at a higher rate than than Western 'nones' do.

I agree that the number sounds too high, but it isn't that much of a stretch to think that a much larger portion of secular Jews are having three kids than their secular counterparts in Canada or the UK.