2017 Nova Scotia election (May 30)

[DC Al Fine]

Green single seat target, didn't work. Leader has 7% in Clayton Park West.

[DC Al Fine]

Disgraced PC candidate Brad Johns wins Sackville-Beaver Bank away from the Grits.

Must elaborate: while a councilor he used discretionary funds to buy a giant animatronic Christmas tree.

[DC Al Fine]

Tory vote efficiency is buggering them.

Burrill elected.

[DC Al Fine]

Liberals have one pickup, Chester-St. Margaret's, not declared yet.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP hold in Truro-Something-Something Else-Again

It's interesting to see the NDP carve out rural fiefdoms like the Tories and Liberals.

[DC Al Fine]

Tories up 19%, Liberals down 17% in Cape Breton, largely over doctor shortages.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP hold in Truro-Something-Something Else-Again

It's interesting to see the NDP carve out rural fiefdoms like the Tories and Liberals.

Does Truro count as rural??

Eh, small town I guess. Point still stands though.

[DC Al Fine]

Jagmeet Singh is in the NDP ballroom.

[DC Al Fine]

So I was reading up on Nova Scotia Black Canadians last night. Any Black Canadian MLA's getting elected? Maybe from the the Preston area?

1.Tony Ince, Liberal, who defeated Darrell Dexter in Cole Harbour-Portland Valley in 2013 was reelected.

2.Claudia Chender, NDP, won in Dartmouth South that Miriam Mancini took for the NDP from the Liberals in the 2015 byelection. (Miriam Mancini decided she didn't like electoral politics.)

To follow up on that, Preston is notorious for being a seat designed to elect black MLA's... which almost always elects a white MLA

[DC Al Fine]

Obligatory map

[DC Al Fine]

Seeing Cape Breton so blue is really throwing me off. Looks like the Tories did better there (49%) then they even did in 2006 (43%) when their leader was from there.

Agreed, especially when you consider how well the Liberals did there federally in 2015.

[DC Al Fine]

Tory vote needs to get more efficient. Pictou East isn't any more won at 70% of the vote as it is at 50%

[DC Al Fine]

Here's the NDP trend (individual swings relative to provincial swing)


Nothing too unusual. The NDP collapsed in areas that they lost in 2013 and had no NDP tradition, and did well in the urban and inner suburban areas of Halifax. The only thing that's throwing me is how well they did in Digby and Annapolis counties, although that could just be a fluke (going from 10 to 15% of the vote might not be anything meaningful).

The NDP need to do well in Halifax's outer suburbs to be competitive, and those were a mixed bag.

[DC Al Fine]

And here is the Tory trend map



Main things to note: Very positive results in the northern mainland and Cape Breton. There was notable underperformance on the South Shore. In Halifax, it was largely what you would expect, with the Tories doing well in the outer suburbs and poorly in urban areas and inner suburbs.