2017 Nova Scotia election (May 30)

[DC Al Fine]

So, NDP support has collapsed in Halifax, but not in the rest of the province? Not sure if buy that.

Exactly. Halifax has that core progressive base that the NDP can rely on, so it should be the place NDP support holds up in during a decline. Plus, I still don't buy the Tories doing so well in Halifax, when we aren't forming government.

[DC Al Fine]

Went to the advance poll. Voted Liberal. Feels weird man.

[DC Al Fine]

One of us ... one of us ... one of us ...

He's supporting them because they're the most right wing party in the election.

Yes. Was still undecided until last night. I know McNeil is more right wing than Baillie, but I was still worried about electing a very left-liberal candidate. My wife swung me over in the end. Her brother has a disability and wasn't being given the help he was supposed to at school a few years ago. Our incumbent Liberal MLA went to bat for him and made sure he received the help he needed.

So I'll give credit where credit due. That was some solid constituency work, and should be rewarded. There are other seats where I would vote Tory, but I'm happy to cast a Liberal vote in Bedford.

(Actually, that might explain why the PCs are doing better than expected in Halifax?)

Precisely. Baillie has been attacking McNeil on three points:
1) Cutting the Film Tax Credit
2) Imposing a contract on Nova Scotia Teacher's Union
3) Closing rural hospitals

The first two are very Halifax friendly. Plus he's quite socially liberal, so other parties can't really portray him as a socon boogeyman.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP up slightly in CRA poll

Liberal: 40%
Tory: 32%
NDP: 25%

Also, there was a roundtable debate last night. Not particularly eventful, although Baillie made an "Anyone But McNeil" appeal to NDP voters.

[DC Al Fine]

New CRA poll

Liberal: 41%
Tory: 31%
NDP: 24%

[DC Al Fine]

Burrill is canvassing in his own seat two days before the election. Make if that what you will.

[DC Al Fine]

Burrill is canvassing in his own seat two days before the election. Make if that what you will.

Isn't there an incumbent Liberal in the riding?

Yes, but he's had a scandal and the riding is a very, very good match for Burrill's style of Dipper. It should have been an easy pickup in my opinion.

[DC Al Fine]

The leaders are in the following ridings today, the final day of the campaign.
McNeil
Inverness
Antigonish
Colchester North
Cumberland North
Cumberland South
Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank

Baillie
Dartmouth North
Cole Harbour-Portland Valley
Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage
Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank
Sackville-Beaverbank
Sackville-Cobequid
Truro-Bible Hill etc.

Burrill
Sydney-Whitney Pier
Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank
Halifax Chebucto x 2
Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage
Cole Harbour-Portland​ Valley
Halifax Citadel-Sable Island

From this we can surmise:
1) Liberals are performing as expected
2) Burrill is in trouble in his own riding
3) The Tories think their Halifax surge is real.
4) Waverley Fall River-Beaverbank is a three way race

[DC Al Fine]

Election day bump

[DC Al Fine]

Polls close in 10 minutes.

[DC Al Fine]

Burrill is canvassing in his own seat two days before the election. Make if that what you will.

Isn't there an incumbent Liberal in the riding?

Yes, but he's had a scandal and the riding is a very, very good match for Burrill's style of Dipper. It should have been an easy pickup in my opinion.

I was a bit confused because the only MLA with a major scandal I knew about was Andrew Younger.  Stroink's scandal sounds like the sort of thing to me that the media and a few 'social justice warriors' play up but the vast majority of the public couldn't care less about.

Yes, it wasn't a scandal scandal. But the point remains, it's a relatively favourable seat for the NDP to put a leader in.

[DC Al Fine]

Polls have been closed going on 10 min. Still no results yet.

[DC Al Fine]

Burrill down in Chebucto

[DC Al Fine]

Tories up in Dartmouth East

[DC Al Fine]

How the hell are the Tories up in Glace Bay.

[DC Al Fine]

Tory surge in Halifax appears real. Got that wrong.

[DC Al Fine]

How the hell are the Tories up in Glace Bay.

Cape Breton seems to be a bloodbath for Liberals in general.

PC 4
NDP 2
LIB 1

right now.

Yeah they sure don't like cuts up there.

[DC Al Fine]

dude you don't need to make a post whenever a safe seat is held by a party

Honestly, there is is very little safe seats in NS.

Precisely. A guy who won 80% in 2013 is down right now.

[DC Al Fine]

Disgraced former councillor Brad Johns is up in Sackville-Beaverbank, and the Tories are up in Cape Breton-Richmond. Both VERY surprising.

[DC Al Fine]

Any reason why the Tories have the most called seats so far?

Some of their incumbents are racking enormous majorities. Hence their popular vote lead, too.

Hopefully the Liberal incumbent vote comes in. It's weird to see a borderline majority while the Tories are up in the popular vote.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP seems to be outperforming expectations. Also, popular vote is tied.

[DC Al Fine]

Tories really overperforming in Cape Breton, underperforming in the rural mainland.

[DC Al Fine]

Turnout is garbage, around 43%

[DC Al Fine]

Tories really overperforming in Cape Breton, underperforming in the rural mainland.

Underperforming mainly in Anapolis Valley I think.

It's down everywhere. CTV estimates 39% in Metro Halifax.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP doing very well for only having 21-22% of the vote.

Tories really overperforming in Cape Breton, underperforming in the rural mainland.

Underperforming mainly in Anapolis Valley I think.

It's down everywhere. CTV estimates 39% in Metro Halifax.

Tory support or vote turnout?

Turnout