Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[DC Al Fine]

Oh, there's a few rumours going around that Stephen McNeil is going to call a snap election this spring. Nova Scotia loves to speculate on this topic with every premier because John Buchanan won back to back re-elections off of snap elections in the 1980's. I personally doubt McNeil calls an election.

[DC Al Fine]

PKP is retiring from politics for family reasons, namely his ugly separation. First permanent oppo leader never to contest a GE.

Too bad. He would have made for an interesting election.

Leadership candidates?

[DC Al Fine]

If the Liberals were truly Machiavellian, they should go with true PR and not AV/IRV. PR would encourage the other two national parties to fragment into niche parties, leaving the Liberals as the only national, big-tent brokerage party. AV/IRV OTOH, still strongly discourages the creation of new parties.

If we get PR, I'd very much like the threshold to be low, say 1-2%. It'd be interesting to see some of the more active fringe parties (Socons, Commies, Libertarians) win seats.

[DC Al Fine]

There's no reason why Alberta shouldn't have two right wing parties. No need to go back to decades of one party rule.

AB-Insights West: 35/27/22.

Well, yeah this isn't 1990's Ontario, so it's not like a divided right can't win, especially if the consolidated progressive vote is stuck below 30%.

I'm kind of surprised the feds are getting involved in this TBH. Given the weakness of PC vote distribution and lack of raison d'etre outside government, a modest swing against them could reduce them to a handful of seats next time.

[DC Al Fine]

So things got spicy on the House floor today.

Well it's good to know Trudeau is still prone to saying and doing silly things. This incident won't move many votes but the pattern hopefully might in four years.

Also, what is Trudeau doing that for? He has backbenchers for these tasks

[DC Al Fine]

Since the general election I haven't payed much attention to Canadian politics, but I understand the Liberals are riding high in the polls. Are they really so popular, or is it just that there is no alternative because the PC and the NDP don't know what they want and who they are? And could anyone update me on what has happened policy-wise since Trudeau took office?

Trudeau is quite popular. Obviously there are factions that don't like him (conservatives, socialists, separatists), but he has managed to own the 'promiscuous progressive' demographic. The NDP have struggled to differentiate themselves from the Liberals and are languishing at 1990's levels of support and Thomas Mulcair lost a non-confidence motion at NDP's convention this spring. The Tories still have their ~30% base.  I suspect the polls will stay this way until the Tories and NDP pick new leaders.

Policy wise, some of the more salient points are:
1) Cutting taxes for the $45,000-$90,000 tax bracket and adding a new bracket for incomes over $200,000
2) Expanding child benefits, and removing the universal component to make the program 100% income based
3) Legalizing marijuana
4) An assisted suicide bill which legalizes the practice but is still relatively restrictive.
5) Running a $30 billion deficit instead of the promised $10 billion.
6) Early, early stages of electoral reform (still probably not going to happen)

[DC Al Fine]

Thanks! But many of these things have not been implemented yet, right?

The taxes, deficit, and child benefits have all been implemented. Assisted suicide is working its way through parliament. Marijuana legalization and electoral reform have yet to be introduced as bills in parliament.

[DC Al Fine]

Defeated MLA Keith Bain has won the Tory nomination in Victoria-The Lakes. Bain served two terms before being defeated by Pam Eyking, wife of Liberal MP Mark Eyking

[DC Al Fine]

The several municipalities in Pictou County (Peter MacKay's home county), with a combined population of 45k have rejected amalgamation in a referendum.

Hatman is likely pleased. I am not

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau considering a NATO request to deploy up to 1000 troops to Eastern Europe. Believe if seen.

Forum: 49/32/10. Justin's approval steady at 57%.

Holy crap, those NDP numbers are devastating. How many seats do you think the NDP would win with 10% of the nationwide vote?

If they centralize their votes in the right places and focus on maintaining rather than gaining, they shouldn't lose more than 10 or so.

That's a big if though. The NDP vote is spread pretty thin. They didn't win many seats by a large margin. If you apply a proportional swing to Forum's regional numbers the NDP win maybe half a dozen seats.

Of course, the NDP will get a new leader, the economy might change, or the Liberals might anger the left, so it's far from hopeless, but the NDP are danger of very, very serious losses next election.

[DC Al Fine]

The Trudeau government is expected to introduce changes to the taxation of medical practices with the view of avoiding physicians 'abuse' of small business taxation. So now, every accountant I know, including myself is rearranging their physician clients' affairs. This will cost money but will more or less mitigate the tax increase that the changes will bring about...

I'm starting to think Trudeau is in the pocket of the Chartered Accountants

[DC Al Fine]

CPP expansion plan has been released. Relevant points:

1) CPP premium will go from 4.95% to 5.95%. Coverage will expand from 25% of pre retirement income to 33%

2) CPP coverage will expand from the first $55k of earnings to over $80k.

3) WITB will expand to compensate for premium increase and CPP premiums over $55k will be tax deductible. ORPP will be scrapped.

I like the plan personally. After the OAS debacle I was skeptical that the Liberals would produce a reasonable CPP refirm, so I'll give Trudeau credit where it's due.

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau Jr. is like the dream liberal, he would have taken the democratic primaries in a walk

He is a Conservative. A real Liberal would have booted Deepak Chopra, CEO of Canada Post, as soon he entered office. It's an union-busting, anti-equal pay, anti-customer state corporation which should have been reined in long ago (and Chopra banned from any position in government for mismanagement).

You sound like a lot of GOP rhetoric circa 2010

[DC Al Fine]

No surprises in Abacus social issue polling.

Well that confirms my guess that ~20-25% of Tories are socons. Also, I wish they had thrown in a few economic morality questions. Those might have shown a bit more of a divide between the Liberals and NDP.

(Also, looking at the poll on pornography, Canadians are probably fairly more honest overall than Americans.)

It's dishonest to believe that something you do is immoral?

Agreed

[DC Al Fine]

RB, Obviously it's really early days, and if the Chretien era is any guide to the future, Trudeau's margins will narrow closer to the election. However it's still possible the Liberals could cruise at these levels right through the 2019 election, particularly if the NDP doesn't get their act together. At what point would you start worrying if the Liberals continue to get 45-52% in the polls?

[DC Al Fine]

Predicting the outcome of an election 4 years before is always a terrible idea.

Especially in Canada, what with our habit of 25% swings.

[DC Al Fine]

NS NDP leader Gary Burrill will not run the Halifax Needham by-election and instead will run in Halifax Chebucto at the next GE. Kind of a surprise move since Halifax Needham is basically a microcosm of the NDP, there's working class bits, minorities, students, and artsy activist types all in one riding.

[DC Al Fine]

Mel Hurtig has died

[DC Al Fine]

So, I volunteered at the Liberal tent at a Korean heritage festival in Burnaby South yesterday. I had a decent time, but I have to say that I completely underestimated a certain phenomenon at play in federal election politics today. An old lady—a frequent volunteer for the party—pointed it out and I scoffed because I thought it was kind of an insulting way to think of female voters, but through the day it proved to be surprisingly insightful: Women really, legitimately swoon over Justin Trudeau. And the Liberal Party knows it, so virtually all of their branding goes heavy on using his name and picture.

We gave out gigantic posters of his face, little post cards of his face, buttons with his face on them... and women would come and get so giddy and take everything. They took photos with the large sign panel of Trudeau. It's astounding to me. And sadly, I highly doubt they could have told me much of anything about his policies.

Is it a big factor? I don't know. But Trudeau has an image that will be very, very difficult to tarnish, especially now that he has the incumbency on his side. The whole thing put a very sour taste in my mouth. And although I will probably vote Liberal in the next election, I continue to be, uh... not the biggest fan of the Prime Minister. It was great to see him and his perfect family at Pride last weekend, but I can't get over some things about the guy and how his image has been constructed and received.

But I remain convinced that he could literally be the prime minister for decades.

However, that is a bit of a stretch. The stuff you describe tends to wear of fairly quickly as incumbency and your record begins to weigh down on you.

This is true. Dynasties and Interludes has a great account of Trudeaumania 1.0. Trudeau Sr. cruised to victory in 1968, but by 1972 surveys had begun to describe him as arrogant and he nearly lost re-election. By the late 1970's that reputation had been firmly cemented.

Although the fundamentals are extremely sound for the Liberal Party right now, and they will probably win re-election next time, it is conceivable that Justin Trudeau could screw up and have a shorter term in office than Stephen Harper. Suppose we have nasty recession in 2018-2019 and Trudeau makes some off the cuff remarks that come off as uncaring and arrogant. It's not that difficult to imagine especially in Canadian politics.

[DC Al Fine]

Do the Greens have anybody even remotely notable besides Elizabeth May?

They've elected a couple MLA's who are semi-prominent.

[DC Al Fine]

Seems odd that Trudeau/The Liberals has included so many South Asians and no East Asians in his Government. Just something I've noticed.

She worked for Trudeau's 2013 leadership campaign, so the two probably have some sort of personal camaraderie.

IIRC, heavily East Asian ridings stayed relatively Tory while South Asian ridings swung hard Liberal last time. That has to play a part.

[DC Al Fine]

No, that's just a strategic move to keep the NDP down. Grits have been doing this with social democratic third parties for nearly a century, it ain't new. Most recently, Paul Martin campaigned with then CAW-chief Buzz Hargrove in 2004/6.

It's not just the union speech, it's Trudeau capitalizing "Labour" throughout his speech, as well as making Liberal party membership free and stating he wants to transform the party into a "movement".

It can only be a movement if it becomes the "Labour" party (ie: the Labour movement).

At least that's what has happened in Britain, Australia and New Zealand.

That would make no sense.  They're riding high right now, why rock the boat?  Canada already has a Social Democratic Party, and they've already poached most of the votes from them that they can.  It would be a dumb move.

This. If they tried to take the NDP's remaining 10-15% support, they'd lose just as much, if not more to the Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

Hugh Segal has issued his guaranteed minimum income report.

[DC Al Fine]

The PBO confirms the effects of inflation on the new Canada Child Benefit. The Liberals won't index until 2020, largely because its f[inks]ing expensive.

[DC Al Fine]

Can somebody give a quick-and-simple rundown of Wynne's sex ed curriculum and why it's so disliked?

Before I answer, I'd like to note how hard it is to find a synopsis of the curriculum online free of over the top rhetoric. The socons are hysterical, and socially liberal writers/publications seem to think no one could ever have a rational reason to oppose it. It took a surprisingly long amount of time to look this up and get a sense of the issues

Anyway, here is a quick list of some of the more controversial parts of the curriculum:

1) The curriculum introduces the concept of gender fluidity in the third grade and makes lots of references to 'birth-assigned sex' as opposed to 'sex. Homosexuality and gay marriage are also talked about in third grade.
2) Masturbation is discussed in sixth grade. Oral and anal sex are discussed in seventh grade.
3) It advocates 'making a personal plan' about your sexual activity in middle school, with no references to love or marriage.*

There's also been some controversy because the deputy minister of education (i.e. highest ranking non-politician in the department) when the curriculum was written is currently in prison for possession of child pornography and 'counselling to commit sexual assault'.

*Admittedly this seems like it's awkward tightrope walking by the writers, who realize they can't just tell kids about all this sexual activity without some sort of guidance around sexual decisions, but at the same time don't want to be seen as promoting a particular moral view either.