Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[DC Al Fine]

The Libertarian Party is considering merging with Bernier's new outfit.

[DC Al Fine]

Adam van Koeverden will be the Grit candidate against Lisa Raitt in Milton.

Neat. I paddled and met him the one year I went to nationals. Very nice and approachable guy. You'd think someone like him would be able to get a safer seat instead of trying to pick off a Tory notable.

[DC Al Fine]

It's his hometown and there aren't any safer ones open. I'd have given Bennett an ambassadorship, maybe WHO rep, and given him St. Paul's.

Haha. If I ever got a safe seat, I'd be angling for a cushy ambassadorship as soon as I could. Hon. DC Al Fine, Ambassador to the Bahamas has a nice ring to it

[DC Al Fine]

Nanos is prompting for the People's Party. Only has them at 1.3%

[DC Al Fine]

It's not official yet, but Tim Houston nearly won on the first ballot and the runner up Cecil Clarke has conceded. Houston will be the next leader of the NS Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

NS PC leadership results

Tim Houston (MLA Pictou East): 49%
Cecil Clarke (Mayor of Cape Breton, former cabinet minister): 27%
John Lohr (MLA Kings North): 14%
Elizabeth Smith McCrossin (MLA Cumberland North): 8%
Julie Chiassion (some rando): 2%

The party used the same system as federally. No detailed results by riding are out as far as I know.

[DC Al Fine]

So no second ballot, because Clarke dropped out? Makes sense, 49% is a guaranteed win.

Correct

Do you think Houston will take the party back to the right?

Fiscally yes, socially he's as red as Baillie was.

[DC Al Fine]

The Clement scandal gets worse.

Oh boy

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories just picked a new leader in NS, so that likely explains the Liberals drop.

[DC Al Fine]

Ah yikes, that's huge

[DC Al Fine]

FPTP wins with 61% in BC.

The absolute worst thing is my BC Liberal acquaintances pretending to be progressive. They celebrate the defeat of proportional representation but two years ago lamented the way Trudeau abandoned it.

That was a weird case. I was annoyed at Trudeau abandoning democratic reform but at the same time, I would take FPTP over Trudeau's proposed IRV system and I'm a huge fan of proportional representation.

IRV is irritating since how much a party is disliked can have a substanstial effect on its result, regardless of it's vote share. FPTP has this, but the effect is much more muted.

[DC Al Fine]

Kings-Hants might be a dark horse candidate for most surprising Tory pickup this fall.

[DC Al Fine]

Cabinet shuffle, probably the last one before the election: David Lametti joins cabinet as Justice Minister. Wilson-Raybould to Veterans Affairs. Seamus O'Regan to Indigenous Services, Jane Philpott to Treasury replacing Scott Brison.

The government also made a new Minstry of Economic Development for Bernadette Jordan, who will be the NS cabinet minister now that Brison is gone.

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau under fire over claim he pressured justice minister to intervene in SNC-Lavalin fraud case

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau under fire over claim he pressured justice minister to intervene in SNC-Lavalin fraud case

He was pretty vehement in his denial so either it's true or he thinks they covered up enough of their tracks. If someone has a smoking gun, he's probably finished.

Yes, that is the $1,000,000 question.

Also, the scandal broke a week ago, and we still don't have any polls. Very irritating.

[DC Al Fine]

First post scandal poll is out from Campaign Research

Conservative: 37%
Liberal: 32%
NDP: 14%
Green: 7%
Bloc: 5%
People's: 3%

Large change from pre-scandal polling but not a major shift from the last Campaign Research poll, which had the Liberals and Tories statistically tied.

[DC Al Fine]

It seems the minister who resigned dropped the bomb: Trudeau refuses to resign over claims officials interfered in bribery prosecution.

Asking out of ignorance, can Trudeau survive without his government being crippled or could the pressure lead to his actual resignation/implosion?

We're only eight months from a scheduled election, so I suspect he stays on. He has a majority in parliament and Canada doesn't have as much of a history parties of knifing their own leaders like say Australia.

[DC Al Fine]

To add to my previous comment, the PM is in deep, deep trouble, and could still resign if things get bad enough. I still think he stays on until at least E-day. Time to wait and see.

[DC Al Fine]

That summary has a lot of errors and issues. E.g. Putting Quebec politics on a left-right spectrum alone doesn't make sense.