Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[DC Al Fine]

Patrick Brown's being wooed to run for Peel Region mayor but is noncommittal so far. Could be a comeback perch if he ran and won.

Will believe it when I see it.

[DC Al Fine]

Angus Reid has released a detailed poll about the Trudeau government's summer job abortion attestation.

The results are decidedly mixed. Opinion of the policy is divided exactly 50/50. When polled further, Canadians generally oppose the attestation when applied to things like churches running a soup kitchen, but support it when applied to political activism (which is fair IMO, so long as it's applied to all political activism).

I was surprised at the relative lack of partisanship on this issue. A large minority of Tory voters support the attestation and large minorities of Liberals and NDP supporters oppose it. I guess there are more pro-choicers absolutists on the right and more civil liberties absolutists on the left than I thought.

There is also a very significant part of Tory voters which are pro-choice.

Oh I'm aware of that. I just figured that if they were that attached to abortion rights, they wouldn't vote Tory and therefore would be more partisan on this attestation issue. The same goes for why I'm surprised at how many Liberals and NDPers opposed the attestation.

[DC Al Fine]

Why do they even name ridings after people in Quebec? Anything newer than Sir John A is bound to be controversial.

[DC Al Fine]

Another name change for federal riding.. Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot will become Saint-Hyacinthe-Acton so the MRC d'Acton feels included and represented.

https://www.lavoixdelest.ca/actualites/nouveau-nom-meme-identite-40d819ad72b947ec0d620530d9ce48b7

The article says it's part of riding name changes wanted by MPs in bill C-402 that looks to be in Senate now and take effect in next election.
http://www.parl.ca/LegisInfo/BillDetails.aspx?Language=E&billId=9831496

Nova Scotia:
Cape Breton—Canso becomes Cape Breton—North Nova
South Shore—St. Margarets becomes South Nova
Sydney—Victoria becomes Cape Breton by the Sea

Quebec:
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis becomes Lévis—Bellechasse—Etchemins
Jonquière becomes Jonquière—Haut-Saguenay
Manicouagan becomes Côte-Nord
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot becomes Saint-Hyacinthe—Acton

Ontario:
Mississauga—Streetsville becomes Streetsville—Meadowvale—Lisgar
Nickel Belt becomes Greater Sudbury—Nickel Belt

Manitoba:
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley becomes Winnipeg West—Headingley

Saskatchewan:
Regina—Lewvan becomes Regina West

Alberta:
Calgary Signal Hill becomes Calgary West
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake becomes Fort McMurray—Lac La Biche—Cold Lake

British Columbia:
Burnaby South becomes Burnaby—Douglas
Langley—Aldergrove becomes Langley—West Abbotsford
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon becomes Abbotsford—Mission—Fraser Canyon


While looking for C-402 I came across another riding name change but it's not at the same legislative stage.  C-377 would change Châteauguay—Lacolle to Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville.

http://www.parl.ca/LegisInfo/BillDetails.aspx?Language=E&billId=9096762

Most of these are terrible, but I'm glad to see the undoing of the dumb idea of listing the names within a riding name alphabetically in Quebec.

Those Nova Scotia names are AWFUL!

What is it with our government and calling every non-Halifax mainland riding _____ Nova?! Cape Breton-Canso, Sydney-Victoria and South Shore-St.Margaret's are all all accurate names for the places that people actually use in real life. Also, Cape Breton By The Sea sounds like a lame tourist slogan. Next redistribution I'm making a submission protesting these stupid, godawful names.

[DC Al Fine]

Me thinks the damage is done. Even if the Bloc gets a semi credible, non-absolutist leader, most of the places they could salvage a caucus from are held by Quebec Debout MP's.

[DC Al Fine]

Or put another way:

If we do a quick and dirty adjustment by comparing the 2015 result to Grenier's average, the only Bloc won seats that have a hope of staying in non-federalist hands are Gill's and Plamondon's. Plamondon's is fine if he doesn't run (and he's 74 ) and he may not even retain it if the Bloc runs someone. That would leave Gill in Manicougan as an independent in all but name.

[DC Al Fine]

Paul Dewar has terminal brain cancer.

[DC Al Fine]

Andrew Scheer removes Maxime Bernier from Tory front bench
'I have removed Maxime Bernier from the Official Opposition Shadow Cabinet, effective immediately'

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/maxime-bernier-removed-front-bench-1.4703609

Probably a good idea. Twitter spats aren't accomplishing anything for the party.

[DC Al Fine]

Delacourt is speculating that Trudeau will call a snap election this summer to get a new mandate to deal with the Trump/Trade issue.

Really doubt he does it, but it's an interesting hypothetical.

[DC Al Fine]

Elmer MacKay (Peter's father and Mulroney era cabinet minister) has endorsed Cecil Clarke for ND Tory leader.

[DC Al Fine]

Dippers pantsh**tting about this province again, renewed talk about deposing Singh and potential mass retirements. What's new is so far failed attempts by Grits to snatch some floor crossers.

Well at least they're doing better than the post-Charest Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

Can Singh at least hold the ROC seats and make some gains with an appeal to urban progressives, environmentalists and Sikhs?

Based on these polls I'd say it would have to be that way: if they're down in Quebec, they have to be up elsewhere.  I'm contrary to what others say about B.C though.  Keep in mind that, although the NDP knocked out several Conservatives, they kept their percentage of seats here the exact same: from 12/36 to 14/42.  The only seats I could really see the NDP gain here are Surrey Center and the Burnaby riding held by Liberal Terry Beech. If Jonathan Wilkinson in Burnaby-North Vancouver loses, I think it's more likely it would go to the Conservatives than to the NDP.

I don't know the electoral situation in any other parts of the country but If the NDP remains at 20% but declines in Quebec, I'd expect the NDP to gain in Toronto, South Western Ontario, Northern Ontario and Halifax.

The NDP ought to win Halifax next time as that seat is a fantastic fit for them. It's like a microcosm of the NDP coalition and I was really surprised the Liberals won it last time. Outside of that seat any success they have in Atlantic Canada will be heavily candidate based IMO.

[DC Al Fine]

Scheer rejected requests from certain MPs to expel Bernier from caucus, and the MP who started it whined to CP.

Thoughts on who it was?

[DC Al Fine]

Bev Shipley is retiring.

Should be a boring by-election.

[DC Al Fine]

Why isn't some back bench party hack giving up his seat to the seat less party leader? Having no seat in parliament is pretty embarrassing.

Because it's risky and the NDP needs all the talent they have in the house and it's not really that embarassing. Jack Layton didn't have a seat when he became leader.

I'm not sure how.many people care outside of the media and political junkies. Also, for better or worse, the NDP is going to get less crap for this than a Tory or Liberal would. It's a very high risk, low reward proposition for the NDP.

[DC Al Fine]

The fringe Atlantica Party in Nova Scotia is in trouble for violating election spending laws

[DC Al Fine]

The fringe Atlantica Party in Nova Scotia is in trouble for violating election spending laws

How did they get enough money to violate election spending laws?

I phrased that poorly. Their leader donated way more than limits allow under the guise of "loans"

[DC Al Fine]

Wouldn't 25 seats literally mean a city council member has a larger average constituency than an MPP does? That sounds absurd.

Hmm, that is technically true. We have some ridings covering just 20k people up north, brining the average down.

Bizarrely this wouldn't be as bad as some cities in western Canada that have more provincial ridings than wards.

Halifax is like that too. 16 councilors, 21 MLA's.

[DC Al Fine]

The NDP is still polling 15-20%, so it's just a reversion to the mean really. We're not in Audrey McLaughlin territory, and not even Alexa McDonough territory either.

Hell, they're in Jack Layton (04-10) territory, which wasn't exactly considered terrible at the time.

[DC Al Fine]

Notley trashes Singh on the record as a thoughtless elitist who doesn't care about working people.

Why don't the Liberals ever infight like this anymore?

[DC Al Fine]

Don't think Bernier would've been a disaster. Sure he wouldn't have won but you could say the same for any other major contender, since JT's name isn't Joe Clark and there won't be a depression next year.

Eh, Bernier doesn't seem to play well with others and is a little too attached to his libertarianism.

[DC Al Fine]

I still don't see how that means less than 90-odd seats, since all those hard nationalist votes have to go somewhere here next year in a 2-party race. Maybe some close ON suburban seats from last time, taking only Fundy Royal and NB Southwest out East.

Maxime Bernier last night goes on twitter tirade on diversity that I think many would say is bigoted.  While tough to say the exact impact as no election coming up, probably a good thing for the party he was not chosen as leader.  Kick him out and that could divide the party, but let him stay on and he might say or tweet something stupid during the election campaign which sinks the party.

See this is what I mean. Dude has repeatedly shown he has no discipline. He'd have a much, much higher downside risk in a campaign than Scheer.

[DC Al Fine]

With the Liberals clearly leaning in the progressive direction and conservatives pandering more to their base, does anyone think there are enough Blue Liberals/Red Tories out there that a party that appealed to them could gain traction or are we in a more polarized era where such demographic is not as big as it once was.  Also will be interesting to see which party or how they split next election.  I tend to assume around 50-60% of Canadians sit left of centre, 30% are part of the conservative base while 10-15% make up those Blue Liberals/Red Tories, but what are others thoughts?

There's no group more coddled, more overrepresented in our institutions than the fiscally conservative socially liberal crowd. They don't need a new party. Besides, they aren't concentrated enough to win seats. It's be like the Chretien era Tories without the Atlantic regionalism.

[DC Al Fine]

If Maxime Bernier were removed from the Conservative caucus how likely would he be to be reelected as an independent in Beauce?

Worked for his father.

Not sure if it would for Maxime though. The farmers in the riding hate him.

People that go that route and win usually have something special going for them. Casey had the equalization issue,  Arthur had his radio show and the Tories giving him a pass etc etc. I think Bernier would do better than the average Indy running for re-election, but I doubt he has anything to put him over the top.

[DC Al Fine]

Wonder what that will be about?