Canadian provincial leadership elections 2015

[DC Al Fine]

I kind of want to see Selinger go down in flames on election night so Selinger.

[DC Al Fine]

How big of a new leader bonus can we expect for the NDP? Will they start competing with the Tories and draw votes back from the Liberals?

[DC Al Fine]

Wow, maybe Elliot won't win after all.  I guess the Tories never want to ever form government. Let the playboy win, then.

Might work for the Liberals federally. Why not the Tories provincially?

[DC Al Fine]

So PCPO isn't a coronation anymore? I can't believe Brown has a shot, and I'm saying that as someone who has lived in his riding. A random backbencher with no accomplishments I can think of and is a blue Tory when PC's should be looking to moderate. At least if he wins the PC's will have less of a chance in 2018.

The Blues have no reason to vote for a Red and were bound to coalesce around somebody.

Also, I dispute the notion that moderation is necessary to win for either left or right. Mike Harris is managed to win. Mark Warner isn't president of the USA. What matters is presenting a clear alternative vision that can pry enough people away from the other parties.

[DC Al Fine]

The political junkie in me prefers the old delegate system because they make for better conventions.

[DC Al Fine]

PKP apes Parizeau, but avoids blaming money. Wished he'd save this for the campaign.

Would love to see the PQ vanquished, if only to see Anglos occasionally vote for someone besides the PLQ

[DC Al Fine]

They did before the '30s. Rural Anglos voted Unionist in the Duplessis era, but they were 20% of the total.

I was looking at old elections to see when the change occurred and noticed something odd. Jack Layton's grandfather was a Union Nationale MNA

[DC Al Fine]

Two thoughts.

1) There ought to be a law that campaign charts and maps have useful legends. A 30-60 category is useless to me

2) I'm kind of surprised that most of Elliot's crap seats are in the GTA

[DC Al Fine]

Can a blue tell me how Brown is winning? This doesn't make any sense. I know he's got key endorsements, but how did it all happen? He's a backbencher with no name recognition. Elliott is the widow of a beloved Finance Minister. Do the Tories want to lose another election? I don't think another slick middle aged white guy (a playboy no less) is going to woo over centrist voters.

a) Flaherty/Elliott were/are socially liberal red Tories, so Elliott was going to be a non-starter with a large minority of the party.

b)From what I'm hearing from my Ontario relatives, Elliott took a coronation for granted and Brown just out organized her. It's about selling memberships, not convincing the members as of when Hudak resigned.

Finally, I have to point out that "move to the middle to win" is just as much a fallacy as "only true _____'s win"

[DC Al Fine]

a) Flaherty/Elliott were/are socially liberal red Tories, so Elliott was going to be a non-starter with a large minority of the party.

Actually, Flaherty was more the right-populist standard-bearer in his runs for the leadership vs Eves and Tory--it's only Elliott that's positioned herself as a "mainstream" Davis heir.

I never heard that before. Interesting. Mea culpa.

[DC Al Fine]

I'll have to say, it's an impressive come from behind win. Albeit one that will hurt more than help the PC's.

I echo what DL said. Jeffery Simpson is not good at picking winners.

[DC Al Fine]

So who will surrender their seat? Hudak? Someone a bit closer to Barrie?

How many Tory MPP's have safe seats and have been around long enough to get a decent pension?There's your list. Hudak fits the bill. Ted Arnott is another.

Personally, I think he should just take Hudak's seat and run in Barrie in 2018.

[DC Al Fine]

The Nova Scotia NDP leadership field is all but set.

Running are:

Dave Wilson: MLA for Sackville-Cobequid and Health Minister in the Dexter government.
Lenore Zann: MLA for Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River
Gary Burrill: Ex-MLA for Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley

An quirk of this race is the divide within the NDP has been reversed. Typically the NDP has divided on Halifax-Rural lines, with the rural wing being mostly blue collar, union types, and the Halifax wing representing the "cultural left". This time it is reversed, with Wilson representing an Halifax riding and the old left, and Zann representing a small town and running for the new left.

Gary Burrill is a non-entity, so this race is effectively between Wilson and Zann. Right now I'd give Wilson a slight edge.