R.I.P. social conservatism: Why it’s dying — and the coming realignment

[DC Al Fine]

I see no reason to think abortion will decline as an issue for social conservatives.  Furthermore, while same-sex marriage, pornography, and intoxicants are likely to decline as issues I think social issues such as prostitution, gambling, and more could easily take their place.  The specific issues that social conservatives fight on will change, but I see nothing to indicate that the mindset that leads to their being a political fight on social issues is changing. (I mention gambling because it is one of those issues that historically waxed and waned in importance, and I think society is at a point where we could start to see yet another backlash against legalized gambling.)

I think abortion is going to decline in importance for both sides, simply because fewer women will need abortions.  Whether Roe will still be law in the next fifty years, I can't say, but social conservatives will lose their momentum on this issue as abortion becomes less and less of a factor.  Even if the birth control mandates are repealed, the pill is going to become more accessible, though that will take much longer absent those mandates.

As Aruca said, the teen pregnancy rate has already plummeted without a corresponding decrease in abortion.

Also, I think you are misunderstanding how the activists on both side view the abortion debate. The pro-choice activists view abortion restrictions as putting women back in the kitchen. The pro life activists view legal abortion as genocide. Neither of these views will be mitigated by fewer women having unplanned pregnancies. On top of that, the pro-life view hasn't declined like other socially conservative views, so there won't be a structural decline in abortion's importance like there has been in gay marriage.

[DC Al Fine]

Conservatism will never die.
Social progressivism and social conservatism are always evolving.

This is the key point. No one was talking about gay marriage when divorce was deregulated. Who knows what social issue will appall today's social liberals in 2040.

[DC Al Fine]

It's literally impossible for social conservatism to die. As others have said, it just changes form.

Also, I think Starwatcher raises a good point. OP, what makes you think that fewer women needing abortions will make people less anti-abortion?

I see no reason to think abortion will decline as an issue for social conservatives.  Furthermore, while same-sex marriage, pornography, and intoxicants are likely to decline as issues I think social issues such as prostitution, gambling, and more could easily take their place.  The specific issues that social conservatives fight on will change, but I see nothing to indicate that the mindset that leads to their being a political fight on social issues is changing. (I mention gambling because it is one of those issues that historically waxed and waned in importance, and I think society is at a point where we could start to see yet another backlash against legalized gambling.)

I think abortion is going to decline in importance for both sides, simply because fewer women will need abortions.  Whether Roe will still be law in the next fifty years, I can't say, but social conservatives will lose their momentum on this issue as abortion becomes less and less of a factor.  Even if the birth control mandates are repealed, the pill is going to become more accessible, though that will take much longer absent those mandates.

As Aruca said, the teen pregnancy rate has already plummeted without a corresponding decrease in abortion.

Also, I think you are misunderstanding how the activists on both side view the abortion debate. The pro-choice activists view abortion restrictions as putting women back in the kitchen. The pro life activists view legal abortion as genocide. Neither of these views will be mitigated by fewer women having unplanned pregnancies. On top of that, the pro-life view hasn't declined like other socially conservative views, so there won't be a structural decline in abortion's importance like there has been in gay marriage.

Actually, the abortion rate has decreased.

Whoops made a typo. I meant that teen pregnancy has decreased without a corresponding decrease in abortion's importance as an issue

The number of abortions performed per year peaked at about 1.4 million in 1990 and was as low as 765k in 2010. So if current trends continue with abortions halving every 20-25 years, at what point is this less amplified debate start happening?