Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[DC Al Fine]

Lib majority on 36.5% right now... ugh

[DC Al Fine]

Greens @ 20% in Parry Sound-Muskoka with > 1/2 the polls in.

[DC Al Fine]

Toronto suburbs are a disaster for PC. They are losing seats they held since Harris era in that area. Barrie, Burlington, Newmarket-Aurora... PC is trailing in Thornhill, Durham and Northumberland-Quinte West, too.

Goodbye Hudak.

[DC Al Fine]

Pretty good for the NDP, but they really need to remember that it is possible to appeal to both Windsor and inner Toronto: the results there are a disaster.

Indeed. Their populism seems to be a direct trade. Southwestern ON for downtown TO.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, lesson for the Tories: announce major cuts after the election. More seriously, I don't know why people still announce big policy initiatives during campaigns. I mean it worked so well for John Tory & Stephane Dion

[DC Al Fine]

Hudak announces a leadership race, but stay as a MPP.

Liberals are leading by 46 votes in Thornhill, with 7 boxes left. If PC loses there, Whitby-Oshawa is the only PC seat left in the Toronto suburbs. The next riding is Wellington-Halton Hills, but, at this point, it's not really suburbs anymore.

Halton Hills, which is the majority of the riding is suburban.

Christine Elliott probably won due to sympathy vote.

She won in '07, which was presumably worse for the Tories than tonight.

[DC Al Fine]

Where's RB? He's usually all over these threads on election night.

Hudak announces a leadership race, but stay as a MPP.

Liberals are leading by 46 votes in Thornhill, with 7 boxes left. If PC loses there, Whitby-Oshawa is the only PC seat left in the Toronto suburbs. The next riding is Wellington-Halton Hills, but, at this point, it's not really suburbs anymore.

Halton Hills, which is the majority of the riding is suburban.

Christine Elliott probably won due to sympathy vote.

She won in '07, which was presumably worse for the Tories than tonight.

In Toronto suburbs, this election is worse than 2007. It's the worse electio since 1990, seats held since 1995 were lost.

Ok fair enough

[DC Al Fine]

Pretty good for the NDP, but they really need to remember that it is possible to appeal to both Windsor and inner Toronto: the results there are a disaster.

Indeed. Their populism seems to be a direct trade. Southwestern ON for downtown TO.

And Oshawa. The PC incumbent lost 47-31 against NDP, which is very shocking (I ws of the opinion than Oshawa was lost forever for NDP).

Sid Ryan's been a pretty disastrous candidate, imo.

Why did the NDP let him run four times?

[DC Al Fine]

I can't believe how anti-NDP the CBC is. This is their best showing since 1990, but they're basically openly calling on her to resign.

Radio-Canada is calling PC far right.

The CBC are such Liberal hacks

Mike Harris (not that Mike Harris) is seen as a leadership hopeful.

Nothing against the guy, but surely the PC party knows it wouldn't be a good idea to nominate someone with that name.

[DC Al Fine]

Are there any federal Tories interested in Hudak's job? Tony Clement perhaps?

[DC Al Fine]

Well at least turnout is back over 50%

[DC Al Fine]

True, let's not overstate this.  The only ethno-cultural group the PCs likely received a plurality of votes from was white Protestants.  

Maybe white male Protestants, if you count women they may not have even carried WASPs

Here's the 2011 results.



Granted, the Tories did much worse in Ontario in 2014 than they did in 2011, but they won Protestants so overwhelmingly that I think it's pretty safe to say that they still won white Protestant women.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm surprised the NDP did that well with Catholics, must be the Quebec vote? seeing that the NDP dominated with the Non-Religious, seems a weird juxtaposition

Yeah it's the Quebec vote. Most secular Quebecois still self-identify as Catholic. RB & I estimated a while back that the Tories won a decent sized plurality of English speaking Catholics