Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[DC Al Fine]

She pulled the trigger. WOOT.

F[inks] yeah, one more election before the summer drought.

[DC Al Fine]

Prediction: Tories win the PV but lose in seat count. Another Liberal minority.

[DC Al Fine]

I assume the election will take place under the old boundaries?

[DC Al Fine]

I assume the election will take place under the old boundaries?

Why wouldn't they? There's been no redistribution at the provincial level.

I had no idea where they were in that process

[DC Al Fine]

Pension FAQ.

I like the idea behind the Liberals's plan, but the numbers are sketchy. Take the $45k example. How do they think they can fund 60% of a CPP payout on 40% of the CPP contribution rate?

[DC Al Fine]

From the LG's Twitter feed: what a writ looks like. 214 of them.

Why 214 of them?

2 copies for each seat?

[DC Al Fine]

Straight from the CBC Ontario Votes website, the Ontario Riding Finder:



Anyone else recognize the map?

I noticed this already, it's... quite amusing. Guess you can blame the cutbacks?

It shouldn't be that expensive to copy paste stuff from their 2011 Ontario map

[DC Al Fine]

Today's roundup.

Star says Horwath's bumbling, compares her to Ford on populism and gravy train.

Boy the Toronto Star is really in "campaign mode" now - Regg Cohn in particular doesnt even make the slightest pretence to being fair - his columns literally read like they were ghost written by the Liberal war room. This is such a total hatchet job on Andrea Horwath - big deal if she didn't have a bus for the first two of the unofficial campaign. Ontario election writs are dropped on Wednesday's and I'm sure the NDP was caught slightly off-guard by Wynne announcing the election last Friday - 5 days before it could legally start - in the overall scheme of things - so what? Then he goes on to accuse Horwath of not saying how she would pay for her promises - well fair enough but his beloved Kathleen Wynne just brought in a budget with BILLIONS of dollars worth of expensive commitments and no way to pay for any of them other than jacking up the deficit - that doesn't seem to bother him at all.

The only thing worth reading in the Star is Chantal Hebert.

[DC Al Fine]

+1000, the Star's being itself as usual. More examples: Harper allegedly "smirking" in their private meeting on pensions... with Wynne herself as the source.

And people think Sun is bad

[DC Al Fine]

From Paikin: Wynne mentioned Harper 562 (!) times in her Ottawa stump speech today. Mentioned her real opponents once.

Reminds me of Paulina Marois during the debates

[DC Al Fine]

The Star has now become a self parody: http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/05/08/andrea_horwaths_rightwing_populism_salutin.html

Rick Salutin's column appears Friday is almost certainly on the OLP payroll.

[DC Al Fine]

So to clarify - Ryan is leaking HIS internal polls - not Ekos's internal polls - i assume the OFL must have commissioned some polling and so the results are their property. Hopefully we will hear about other ridings...

FWIW, it seems very odd that the latest wave of province-wide polls show the PCs in the lead and running ahead of their 2011 province-wide vote share - and yet apparently in Oshawa - a seat they have held since 1995 - they are supposedly running third!

Polls are just a clusterf[inks] right now. The pollsters are all over the place.

[DC Al Fine]

Yet another poll "shocker" in Ontario - this time from Ipsos - they have the PCs losing ground to the NDP - I guess the NDP "wrap around the Toronto Sun" worked like a charm

PC - 35% (-4)
OLP - 31% (+1)
NDP - 28% (+4)

They also now have Andrea Horwath in first place as best premier!

Game changer ? Outlier ?

The might be on to something. Abacus had the NDP @ 26% earlier this week.

[DC Al Fine]

New EKOS out: OLP 36 (-1), PC 30 (-), NDP 20 (-1), Green 12 (+5).

Interesting take from Bruce Anderson: unpredictability's the word.

Man EKOS & their Green #'s

[DC Al Fine]

What a fycking joke: Regg-Cohn hits Peak Hackery by calling Horwath's NDP "obstructionist" and "reactionary."

I kind of wish there was an NDP paper in Toronto to counter this horse sh**t. Would make for some interesting columns.

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus LV: OLP 36, PC 33, NDP 24. Looks like my pessimism was justified.

I assume Hudak is gone if he doesn't make a decent gain. Any contenders for a new leader in 2015-2016?

[DC Al Fine]

Eddie Francis eh? I wonder if he could even win one of the Windsor ridings. When was the last time a Windosr riding went Tory? the 60s?

Federally it was during the Diefenbaker landslide.

[DC Al Fine]

BC with the exception of Christy Clark, every BC Premier has been a former mayor since Bill Bennett stepped down, and Christy Clark ran for mayor of Vancouver but lost the NPA nomination to Sam Sullivan in odd happenstance. 

Huh?  Harcourt + Campbell, but I don't know of any of the rest having been a former mayor...

Bill Vander Zalm was mayor of Surrey... That still leaves Johnson, Clark & Dosanjh.

[DC Al Fine]

How does Collingwood vote?

Tory, but not as much as the riding at large.

[DC Al Fine]

I still maintain my day one prediction: Tories win PV but lose on seats.

[DC Al Fine]

On the lighter side, the Greens are within 5pts of the Tories in Dufferin-Caledon under Grenier's model. (And only 2pts in Earl's model).

[DC Al Fine]

Sun endorses Hudak. So Globe, Post, Sun for Hudak, Star for Wynne. Did I miss anyone?

Has the Ottawa Citizen endorsed yet?

[DC Al Fine]

So.... seat predictions?

[DC Al Fine]

48/40/19

Also, PC's barely win the PV.

[DC Al Fine]

When I (as a foreigner) saw those neck-to-neck-polls on the 9th, I expected a final LIB-surge, which has happened, according to the latest polls. Reason: Hudak is not Red enough for Toronto and NDP haven't managed a clear breakthrough. Remains only the hated goverment-party...Is that right?

Yup. Better the devil you know.

Ugh, I just don't get the appeal of the Liberals . If we had AV, I'd preference the NDP over the Liberals unless the Liberal was someone like Szabo.