UK General Discussion

[DC Al Fine]

The only party getting a majority in 2015 is Labour. The electoral arithmetic is against the tories, they would need to increase their vote share, which no party in power has done since 1974, to stand a chance. If the tories get rid of Osborne, they might deprive Milliband of a majority. As things stand now however, they will be swept aside.

If UKIP suddenly disappeared they'd have a fighting chance. Of course that's not going to happen.

[DC Al Fine]

The main reason why the Tories failed to win a majority in 2010 despite a large popular vote lead is the fact that a lot of constituencies that once formed part of their automatic total have been voting LibDem since 1997 or so.

Won't that change once the LibDems get destroyed in 2015? If they stay around 10% in the polls, there's like 25-40 guaranteed seats for the Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

Rotherham council's taken away three children from their foster parents because they were members of UKIP and that signals "racism".

hmm....

Link?

[DC Al Fine]

Rotherham council's taken away three children from their foster parents because they were members of UKIP and that signals "racism".

hmm....

Link?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9700001/Foster-parents-stigmatised-and-slandered-for-being-members-of-Ukip.html

Thanks. This is chilling albeit minor incident. More and more of these incidents seem to be cropping up in the UK lately.

[DC Al Fine]

Canada 1993 2.0 here we come?

IIRC the Reform party was polling around 8-10% until the election campaign began. Then a horrendous Progressive Conservative campaign* allowed them to shoot up to 19%. I could see this happening in Britain if UKIP avoids gaffes and the Cameron campaign stinks up the joint.

* Here's two examples of how bad the PC campaign was:
1) The PC leader said "An election is no time to discuss important issues"
2) The PC's ran ads with closeups of the Liberal leader's deformed face with voice overs saying "This doesn't look like a Prime Minister" and "I would be ashamed if this man was my Prime Minister"

[DC Al Fine]

comments sections on british any political articles are almost always worth avoiding, due to the sheer misanthropy any reasonable person will develop from reading them.

Fixed

[DC Al Fine]

this country has pretty much become america with a monarchy.

No, not at all.

[DC Al Fine]

The politics of this are at least mildly interesting; do the LibDems really think that there are that many votes to be found by swinging to the right of the Tories?

I find the idea of the Lib Dems trying to pick up current UKIP supporters hilarious.

[DC Al Fine]

The politics of this are at least mildly interesting; do the LibDems really think that there are that many votes to be found by swinging to the right of the Tories?

I find the idea of the Lib Dems trying to pick up current UKIP supporters hilarious.

Well, they're surely dead to the left.

I know, but to switch to going after right wing Tories & UKIPers?... they aren't the brightest bunch.

[DC Al Fine]

The politics of this are at least mildly interesting; do the LibDems really think that there are that many votes to be found by swinging to the right of the Tories?

I find the idea of the Lib Dems trying to pick up current UKIP supporters hilarious.

Well, they're surely dead to the left.

I know, but to switch to going after right wing Tories & UKIPers?... they aren't the brightest bunch.

As their conduct since the moment the polls closed in 2010 proves...

[DC Al Fine]

Just came across this from last month. Don't understand why Scottish Labour is so crap.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-20755329

Do you think that's crap because you disagree with her view that free university leads to lower standards or do you think they are crap because they are embracing more right wing views?

[DC Al Fine]

It's amazing that half of the right-wing party voted for gay marriage.

The UK is quite socially liberal and I imagine a lot of the religious right types have jumped to UKIP already.

[DC Al Fine]

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I'm not sure Stalinist is an epithet I'd use for Farage.

[DC Al Fine]

Just seen a random tweet saying that UKIP are in the same position Labour was in 100 years ago. They're a hilarious bunch.

100 years ago, Labour had over 40 MPs.

To be fair, UKIP is polling better than Labour did in the PV in the Dec 1910 election.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah, if the AV referendum was held now, the Tories wouldn't be so harsh about it...

True. There will be a great many seats in 2015 where (Tory+UKIP)>>Labour

[DC Al Fine]

Dodged a bullet as far as I'm concerned. If and when the Right ever do become converts to the cause of electoral reform*, I'll be glad that AV's dead and buried as an option, so they'll have to offer something which doesn't just allow them to use other parties voters as ammunition (meanwhile rewarding those parties with no extra seats).  

*which I'm reasonably optimistic might happen if we're entering 4 party politics for a sustained period, and one which overwhelmingly hinders the Right's chance of governing.

MMP

[DC Al Fine]

Sort of on that topic, who do people think will win Bradford West in the next General Election?

Galloway marginally.

[DC Al Fine]

Even Maggie couldn't win this Tory party a majority.

Just goes to show UKIP is going to have to die/merge for the Tories to win a majority.

[DC Al Fine]

EdM announces tax breaks for companies who'll pay the living wage.

What is "the living wage"?

[DC Al Fine]

EdM announces tax breaks for companies who'll pay the living wage.

What is "the living wage"?

It's defined as the wage for a person working 40 hours/week, which allows it to meet all its basic needs.

One can suppose it's like the Canadian proposal of eqailising the minimum wage to the poverty threshold.

I know. I was asking for the $ figure.

[DC Al Fine]

It's only just struck me, but why is the UKIP logo still just the £ sign?

I thought the € vs. £ debate was put to bed here like 10 years ago...

It's a good anti-EU symbol.

[DC Al Fine]

"Insist that the Nazi salute you were performing..."

Me thinks this is fake.

[DC Al Fine]

Sun YouGov poll: Lab 39%, Tory 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 10%.

Labour lead at 6 points in the age of 'evil Tory cuts'. Brilliant.

And you need to be like 8 points clear to win a majority. Good luck.

Sun YouGov poll: Lab 39%, Tory 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 10%.

Labour lead at 6 points in the age of 'evil Tory cuts'. Brilliant.

And you need to be like 8 points clear to win a majority. Good luck.

Electoral Calculus with those figures gives a Labour majority of 74 and UK Polling Report a majority of 78; neither of these have an explicit option for UKIP, but the Tories will lose more to UKIP than Labour.

Remember Labour got a majority of 66 on a 3 point victory in 2005.

Oh, of course. I'm one of them losers who puts poll numbers into Polling Report every other day. Still, for a government that is destroying the NHS, cutting the welfare state and killing the working class, Labour's 39% is rather paltry for mid-term!

Immigration and the EU. Nuff said.

[DC Al Fine]

And a week before the 1979 election.... http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemID=37&view=wide

Thatcher on 40% is a bit different from Ed Miliband on 31%.

On another note, Michael Foote was polling in the teens in '83.

[DC Al Fine]

The YouGov polls carried out since the local election results:

Yesterday's: Lab 39 Con 29 UKIP 16 LD 9
Today's: Lab 38 Con 27 UKIP 17 LD 11

These are the highest UKIP scores in YouGov polls.  I suspect we may see a 20% for them in Opinium or Survation's next effort.

Is YouGov biased against them?

If the UKIP aren't spent by 2015, they may have the same fate as the Alliance did.

If UKIP's support is evenly spread out. How much support would they need to start winning seats?