Beginning of the End of Northern Ireland?

[jaymichaud]

No because near 100% of Ulster Protestants (who are the majority) support the union and some surveys have shown even a fair amount of Irish Catholics wouldn’t vote in favour of a UI in a Border poll.

I’ll be very shocked if Northern Ireland is still existing in 2050. But with the current demographics and political climate it’s not realistic.

[jaymichaud]

I think that demographic changes point more toward the "neither here nor there" camp growing than toward the Nationalist camp growing.

Even then a poll earlier this year stated the majority of Alliance voters would support remaining in the UK in the event of a border poll.

[jaymichaud]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

I’m pretty sure the Catholic majority border areas (Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry City, South Armagh, South Down) would just jump ship to the RoI in that event leaving NI a rump state.