Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[jaymichaud]

Is Amir Peretz really going to do in the Israeli Labor Party so he can spend a year as Agriculture Minister? Really?

There's no way Israeli Labor hits the threshold again if people think it's likely to coalesce with Likud. What's the point?

He becomes president. No one cares about the Labour franchise anymore outside of Beit Berl.

Jeez, what percentage of the Knesset actually gives a sh*t about anyone but themselves? Have they forgotten who they work for?

[jaymichaud]

Sa’ar has came out against appointing so many ministers- says the government shouldn’t be spending so much money during a crisis.

[jaymichaud]

Meretz are calling for Litzman to be given the boot for abuse of power and ignoring social distancing rules. The entireity of UTJ is poison.

[jaymichaud]

Some recent rumours\news: sources from both sides are saying that the sides are very close to an agreement. Edlestein will remain Speaker, Regev will be Internal Security Minister, Nissenkorn will be Justice Minister. It's also looking like KL might exchange the Foreign Ministry for Education, which would mean Yamina in the opposition.

Yes, it looks like Netanyahu is sending the settlers to the opposition and giving Education to KL, which is wonderful for my teacher-wife, kids, and everyone else who thinks that Israeli schools should cram actual learning and not Judaism down stdents' throats. Niesenkorn will be excellent in Justice, but apparently the right and KL will each be given a veto on appointments (like state prosecutor and AG), so perhaps not as much room to reverse Shaked's reforms as I'd hope. Health was staying with Litzman, but a major report just caught him doing Haredi things in violation of his own regulations for the last week (gathering to pray, etc). So I expect KL to demand his resignation. Not sure where Health would go. Edelstein will go to Foreign, which is fine. No clue what is happening with annexation. I assume culture, defense and communications will go to the left, as planned.

So for the left I'd give it a solid B. Really want health, to send Bibi home, and hate to have Regev in internal security. But it's clear that Bibi is giving the government to the left to stay in power and Gantz is giving up a demand to send Bibi home for control over major ministries, the justice system prosecuting Bibi, and the PM seat in two years.

Shaked is throwing a fit about it.

[jaymichaud]

Well I guess the unity government will be presented tomorrow. Peretz asked the house to split Labour and Meretz officially which means they are in with Gantz and their ministerial posts set

Not a Labor supporter, but kinda sad to see a party with such history and legacy fading into history because of the selfishness of a couple. At least their voters will probably go to YA or Meretz next election so there won't be many votes wasted.

Also Tamar is pissed off and she's calling Michaeli to join Meretz.

[jaymichaud]

Well I guess the unity government will be presented tomorrow. Peretz asked the house to split Labour and Meretz officially which means they are in with Gantz and their ministerial posts set

Not a Labor supporter, but kinda sad to see a party with such history and legacy fading into history because of the selfishness of a couple. At least their voters will probably go to YA or Meretz next election so there won't be many votes wasted.

Also Tamar is pissed off and she's calling Michaeli to join Meretz.

I’m probably the oldest Israeli poster here after Danny, for the entire duration of my life Labour was a massive pile of dung. The demise of the Israeli left is credited mainly to their failing leaders Peres and Barak. There was a second Herzog and Livni had both a good vision and good list (Mitzna had a poor list to back him). But bar for that Labour had been a dying patient refusing to go and just hurting his family.

Anyhow it seems Golan is trying to gather support for a new body with an open primaries hoping he will head the new remains of the Israeli left. Highly doubt Michaeli would join Meretz

The fact Labor went from 19 seats to 3 in a single year... whew.

It's far too late to revive the party but ZU definitely had the right idea, a center left catch-all Democratic Party style list would probably still do pretty well today.

[jaymichaud]

B&W and Labour announce the union of factions in the house and possibly parties towards the next election. which basically means the death of Labour, though B&W acts classically like the old Labour so in a sense it lives on

And who in their right mind would vote for that mess?

[jaymichaud]

Apparently coalition talks have gone tits up, again (Maybe for good this time?) Yamina are threatening to jump ship too.

[jaymichaud]

So it was an "emergency government" yet negotiations broke down over.... the Jordan Valley and judges. Lmfao. Okay.

Hendel, Hauser and Levy’s careers are pretty much over too.

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/unity-talks-remain-frozen-today-blame-game-ensues/

Thank God the parties in my country aren’t behaving like this. Genuine crisis calls for working together, not politicians childishly making it about themselves and putting their personal agendas first.

How do Likud voters justify this?

[jaymichaud]

Poll from this morning had Likud on 42, the right bloc on 64 and Meretz on 7 with Labour below the threshold. Seems like a junk pollster to me

Highly doubt this is true, but whatever.

[jaymichaud]

Petition filed at High Court against tasking Netanyahu with forming government.

[jaymichaud]

If a fourth election does happen and the left has the seats to form a government, would Gantz still be PM, or would he be forced out in favour of somebody like Lapid?

That's a lot of ifs. I am not sure Gantz will even be able to stay in politics unless he somehow finds a way to get Hauser and Hendal to support a minority government.

His career is definitely over after this (I don’t buy those polls) and Labor is probably history too. They really dug themselves in a deep one with this mess.

At least Levy is finished and Hendel and Hauser are probably too unless another party takes them.

[jaymichaud]

This next election is going to be the craziest of them all, especially in the shadow of Corona and the Haredi role in pandemic politics.

Especially with unemployment rates skyrocketing, and people not knowing how they’re gonna pay their rent or get food.

Jeez, what percentage of the Knesset is actually working for the people?

[jaymichaud]

I'm going to guess this makes any annexation before the U.S. election unlikely, unless maybe Trump feels the need to shore up his evangelical support by then.

Is it f*** gonna happen, let’s be real. It was a cheap gimmick to try and steal New Right/Yamina voters.

[jaymichaud]

Yamina are out? Messy!

[jaymichaud]

Lol are Yamina now gonna wage a “War on corruption” like they said? Meme party if so

[jaymichaud]

I still expect the Supreme Court to disqualify Netanyahu as PM, and the main parties seem to tqke that very seriously as well, so we may be going to a fourth election no matter what happens with the blocs.

I don’t see a reason for any party that’s not Likud, Shas and UTJ to be against this. If any politician isn’t then they deserve to go too tbh.

[jaymichaud]

I still expect the Supreme Court to disqualify Netanyahu as PM, and the main parties seem to tqke that very seriously as well, so we may be going to a fourth election no matter what happens with the blocs.

I don’t see a reason for any party that’s not Likud, Shas and UTJ to be against this. If any politician isn’t then they deserve to go too tbh.

Apparently the whole unity bid has been on ice over Netanyahu's concern that the Court will indeed disqualify him. They wanted Gantz to change the basic law to prevent that, Gantz said no, but they did get him to promise an automatic new election if Bagatz does go the way I think they will.

I am not actually entirely opposed to a unity deal if KL can squeeze Likud for key ministries (like Education) and especially if Yamina is kept out of the government. I suppose it comes down to whether you beleve that Netanyahu or the Israeli right is a graver threat to our political future. Bibi is bad, but the apocalyptic ideology of the religious right, driven by an insane ethno-supremacist religious movement, has always made my skin crawl more than anything. Bennet and Shaked are just upper class Ashkenazi Likudniks, so they aren't really all that bad. Like the Rubios of the American right. But the Smotrichs and religious settler leaders are absolutely terrifying. So stealing the government out of their hands and jolting it back to the left is really tempting, especially if Netanyahu will be ensured to face a judge for his alleged crimes.

Likud as a center-right/right wing conservative party? No. Likud as a corrupt, divisive, mafia-esque Fidesz lite? 100%.

[jaymichaud]

I still expect the Supreme Court to disqualify Netanyahu as PM, and the main parties seem to tqke that very seriously as well, so we may be going to a fourth election no matter what happens with the blocs.

I don’t see a reason for any party that’s not Likud, Shas and UTJ to be against this. If any politician isn’t then they deserve to go too tbh.

Apparently the whole unity bid has been on ice over Netanyahu's concern that the Court will indeed disqualify him. They wanted Gantz to change the basic law to prevent that, Gantz said no, but they did get him to promise an automatic new election if Bagatz does go the way I think they will.

I am not actually entirely opposed to a unity deal if KL can squeeze Likud for key ministries (like Education) and especially if Yamina is kept out of the government. I suppose it comes down to whether you beleve that Netanyahu or the Israeli right is a graver threat to our political future. Bibi is bad, but the apocalyptic ideology of the religious right, driven by an insane ethno-supremacist religious movement, has always made my skin crawl more than anything. Bennet and Shaked are just upper class Ashkenazi Likudniks, so they aren't really all that bad. Like the Rubios of the American right. But the Smotrichs and religious settler leaders are absolutely terrifying. So stealing the government out of their hands and jolting it back to the left is really tempting, especially if Netanyahu will be ensured to face a judge for his alleged crimes.

Likud as a center-right/right wing conservative party? No. Likud as a corrupt, divisive, mafia-esque Fidesz lite? 100%.

Fair point.

And it's not as though Isreali politics in general is that dissimilar from Eastern Europe's either.

I wouldn’t say that. Fidesz is pretty much a lost cause whereas Likud CAN be saved, I think. There’d just need to be a lot of purging and bit of punishment for their abuse of power 🤷🏽‍♂️

[jaymichaud]

Is Shas running, hopefully they will return to their leftist roots but that's a pipedream.

They’re still pretty populist on economics, it’s just that it’s only the right that’s selling anything they want to buy and on the other hand the left bloc are actively trying to scale back influence of the community they represent

[jaymichaud]

Sefy Handler thinks that Bibi is leaning against a unity agreement. Perhaps he is tempted by polling show the immunity bloc with a majority. Rumors are swirling that Lapid and Liberman may try to form a new secularist center-right party, perhaps with Hauser and Hendal, which would definitely shake things up. If we do indeed go to a fourth election it is going to be crazier than anything we've seen before, and I suspect the polls today will look laughably inadequate four months from now.

Pretty idiotic move if true, we all know how fickle politics can be. Likud were topping the polls immediately after the April election but crashed and burned to the point they were barely getting 30 seats before September, and the same happened to B&W the following election cycle.

Don’t see Lapid and Lieberman joining forces, though. They have pretty much nothing in common on paper except like... Zionism and secularism. I can see Yesh-Telem staying together otoh.

[jaymichaud]

Sefy Handler thinks that Bibi is leaning against a unity agreement. Perhaps he is tempted by polling show the immunity bloc with a majority. Rumors are swirling that Lapid and Liberman may try to form a new secularist center-right party, perhaps with Hauser and Hendal, which would definitely shake things up. If we do indeed go to a fourth election it is going to be crazier than anything we've seen before, and I suspect the polls today will look laughably inadequate four months from now.

Literally what

Who in the f***ing world would think that siding with Hendal and Hauser is a good idea.

This too. Much like Orly Levy, their careers are done if no one takes them but they really aren’t worth saving.

[jaymichaud]

I still expect the Supreme Court to disqualify Netanyahu as PM, and the main parties seem to tqke that very seriously as well, so we may be going to a fourth election no matter what happens with the blocs.

I don’t see a reason for any party that’s not Likud, Shas and UTJ to be against this. If any politician isn’t then they deserve to go too tbh.

Apparently the whole unity bid has been on ice over Netanyahu's concern that the Court will indeed disqualify him. They wanted Gantz to change the basic law to prevent that, Gantz said no, but they did get him to promise an automatic new election if Bagatz does go the way I think they will.

I am not actually entirely opposed to a unity deal if KL can squeeze Likud for key ministries (like Education) and especially if Yamina is kept out of the government. I suppose it comes down to whether you beleve that Netanyahu or the Israeli right is a graver threat to our political future. Bibi is bad, but the apocalyptic ideology of the religious right, driven by an insane ethno-supremacist religious movement, has always made my skin crawl more than anything. Bennet and Shaked are just upper class Ashkenazi Likudniks, so they aren't really all that bad. Like the Rubios of the American right. But the Smotrichs and religious settler leaders are absolutely terrifying. So stealing the government out of their hands and jolting it back to the left is really tempting, especially if Netanyahu will be ensured to face a judge for his alleged crimes.

Likud as a center-right/right wing conservative party? No. Likud as a corrupt, divisive, mafia-esque Fidesz lite? 100%.

Fair point.

And it's not as though Isreali politics in general is that dissimilar from Eastern Europe's either.

They are pretty dissimilar.

I thought they were fairly similar due to large numbers of Eastern European migration and, later, Russians? Enlighten me.

Lol we wanted to get out of the hellhole that is the former USSR to get away from political instability, not import it.

[jaymichaud]

Likud/B&W talks are resuming- mandate ends shortly.