Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[jaymichaud]

I don't understand why they pick the most ridiculous hills to die on. First the camera thing and now this. The harder they fight the stupider they look when they inevitably lose.

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/likud-says-right-wing-bloc-will-boycott-stolen-undemocratic-knesset/

Free real estate, everything finna pass 61-0 😂👌🏽

[jaymichaud]

The irony is that the Joint List is given arguably more power now than if they were merely supporting a Gantz government from the outside. They are basically now part of the "government" faction of the Knesset.

Handel and Hauser don't seem bothered by this. Why not just let them vote once so the head of their list can become PM?

Apparently Touma-Suleman is rumored to lead a committee, would she agree to that?

And that’ll probably be the end result

[jaymichaud]

When is the vote scheduled?

Wednesday. Apparently the right-wing bloc are 'boycotting' the knesset though

[jaymichaud]

Speaker is resigning now. Coming into effect in 48 hours. I need to go through the house code to see what happens erstwhile

Bye Felicia.

[jaymichaud]

Rivlin sucks!

[jaymichaud]

Lmaoooo fúcking hell please tell me these reports aren’t true

It’s like being offered a promotion to being the CEO of a company and declining it and accepting a job as a secretary

[jaymichaud]

The worst thing is that Hosen MKs KNOW this option isn’t the best for the country, so who are they working for? Not the Israeli people.

Career politicians are the scum of the earth.

[jaymichaud]

Happy a unity government with a large majority and broad Knesset support across the aisle - from Labour to the National Union - is being formed in these trying times.

Sad that Lieberman, Lapid and Meretz think shopping on shabbat is preferable to having a broad unity government in times of a pandemic and with a recession on its way. Happy Gantz made the right call and Israel can move on.

The entirety of the right-wing bloc with 1 centrist party thrown in willy nilly is not a unity government. A unity government would have been B&W, Likud and maybe YB.

[jaymichaud]

Inside Hosen, according to Tal Schneider:
Nissankorn didn't like the move, supported Meir Cohen to the end
MKs Yizhar Shai, Shuster and Mreeh don't like joining Netanyahu
Trooper, Farkash-HaCohen, Biton and Zamir pushed for unity

Any way they can defect?

[jaymichaud]

Would Labor running alone actually break threshold?

With the tactical pressure to vote Gantz gone, they presumably would without much difficulty.

Labour’s dead as disco

There's still a gap in the market for a center-left party, though. I can't see many left wingers trusting milquetoast centrists again anytime soon.

[jaymichaud]

Would Labor running alone actually break threshold?

With the tactical pressure to vote Gantz gone, they presumably would without much difficulty.

Labour’s dead as disco

Yeah, it's not even acting as a party at this point- Merav Michaeli is forcefully opposing the government while Peretz and Shmuli might join. I can see something like a new center-left party lead by Yair Golan with Meretz's corpse and a bunch of people who are still loyal like Michaeli and Shaffir.

Don't you lot say this every week though? Is it for real this time?

[jaymichaud]

However unlike Zionist Union, I don't see this as B&W crashing and burning. Yesh Atid will continue to be decently successful and Lapid/Ya'alon will come out of this as a respected figures whereas almost no one will support or trust Gantz in any future elections. He really burned all of his bridges with this mess.

[jaymichaud]

I can't imagine this government lasting more than a year, so we'll be back at this soon. I expect Liberman to run with Yesh Telem, Meretz to join the Joint List (and get 20 seats, and Labor to run alone. I actually don't think the odds are bad at all for the left+Gantz to get a majority. But that's a ways off and who really knows what is left of the country at that point.

Tbh I can't see this for Meretz. I can see them doing it on their own and trying to capitalize off this ("We're the true Zionist left" "We're the only one that won't cave to Likud" etc.)

[jaymichaud]

Seems like Lieberman and YB really got screwed here? They finally got off the fence and explicitly sided with Gantz and then the next moment he leaves them in opposition and joins the government without securing a place for them (although I guess they can't sit with the Haredim after all this?). Am I missing something?

Pretty much. Same with the Joint List. I can't see them ever putting their trust in a centrist party ever again.

I feel sorry for Lapid above anyone else though.

[jaymichaud]

So does Gantz have a future when Bibi inevitably betrays him and another election occurs? What voter base would he be able to retain?

Lol no. His faction is gonna go the way of Kadima, just a lot quicker.

It'd be like if Sinn Féin just said "Lol nah f that United Ireland nonsense where those Westminster seats at?"

[jaymichaud]

Gadeer Mreeh isn’t going with Gantz.

[jaymichaud]

Shlomo Filber is out with a new poll that I find...interesting.

Likud 38
Lapid 16
Gantz 15
Labor/Meretz 8
Shas 8
Yamina 7
UTJ 7
Lieberman 6

Right wing: 60
Left wing: 60

Here is why it is interesting:

1. Filber had a poll just a few days with Likud leadibg KL 40-30 and the right wing with 63 seats. Now they're only at 60, and from a very right-leaning pollstwr, too.

2. There are virtually no Corona rally-to-the-flag coattails for Netanyahu. In France Macron has rocketed from the grave to a 50% approval. In the US Trump, despite absolutely mangling the American crisis reaponse, has his best numbers ever right now. Boris Johnson fumbled the UK response at first and got historic apprroval numbers (and apparently Corona) as a reward. But Netanyahu? At least half the country still can't stand him.

3. Lieberman's voters agree with him. They simply care more about separating religion and state than the discomfort of using the Joint List to do it. He went way out on a limb this time, and it didn't affect him much. In opposition I can only imagine him gaining strength.

4. Lapid already starts ahead of Gantz. That's wonderful. Ofer Shelach is also a star and if Lapid gives him a more prominent role that could really benefit the party in opposition.

No Joint List?

[jaymichaud]

Put Lucy Aharish at #2 in Yesh Atid and you'll get at least five seats from Gantz.

YA and Labor could get all of those seats if they play their cards right (granted the latter doesn’t sit with Netanyahu, if they do then they’re history).

Anyone who thinks Resilience will get 4 seats in the next election is living in upside down world.

[jaymichaud]

Democracy doesn't equal liberal democracy, it can also mean the right of an (ethnically or culturally defined) people to govern itself. The core of Zionism is the right of the Jewish people to have a national homeland, and if there is a conflict between that and liberal principles (as enshrined in the constitution) then you can't just assume that the latter takes precedence for every Zionist. If one were to follow your logic you can't be a Zionist unless you believe in liberal principles incl. minority rights, and that's a meaningless definition.

Are you implying there exist alternative forms of democracy based on ethnicity, such as ''Jewish democracy'', ''Arab democracy'', or ''Chinese democracy''? I don't think so

I concur that Zionism and liberal democracy are not indivisible. Far from that, the mainstream rightwing revisionist Zionism is blatantly racist and illiberal. But there's a brand of liberal Zionism that tries to reconcile the notion of ethnic state with the principles of liberal democracy, as it's enshrined in the constitution. In case of conflict (unavoidable), it seems clear many Zionists give precedence to ethnicity

Lol you have an avatar of f***ing Japan. Sit this one out, miss thing.

[jaymichaud]

Little known bit of gossip, Lucy Aharish was neatly placed at Gabay’s Labour when suddenly Gantz surfaced and it looked like Labour aren’t going anywhere near 15 seats. I personally don’t like her that much but it’s an improvement to have her on the panel (especially compared to the demented hag Mazlih)

Interesting! I can easily see her on some left list lead by Yair Golan or on the Yesh Atid list, depending on which direction she wants to go.

Is there a chance of Labor (on their own) surging, even if it’s to 9-10 seats as they were predicted before the April 2019 elections? A lot of their voter base voted for Gantz instead of them in order to make B&W the largest party

[jaymichaud]

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-gantz-to-push-law-allowing-netanyahu-to-serve-in-government-despite-trial-1.8719083

Utterly despicable, cowardly and infuriating. His career is 100% over.

[jaymichaud]

Democracy doesn't equal liberal democracy, it can also mean the right of an (ethnically or culturally defined) people to govern itself. The core of Zionism is the right of the Jewish people to have a national homeland, and if there is a conflict between that and liberal principles (as enshrined in the constitution) then you can't just assume that the latter takes precedence for every Zionist. If one were to follow your logic you can't be a Zionist unless you believe in liberal principles incl. minority rights, and that's a meaningless definition.

Are you implying there exist alternative forms of democracy based on ethnicity, such as ''Jewish democracy'', ''Arab democracy'', or ''Chinese democracy''? I don't think so

I concur that Zionism and liberal democracy are not indivisible. Far from that, the mainstream rightwing revisionist Zionism is blatantly racist and illiberal. But there's a brand of liberal Zionism that tries to reconcile the notion of ethnic state with the principles of liberal democracy, as it's enshrined in the constitution. In case of conflict (unavoidable), it seems clear many Zionists give precedence to ethnicity

Descriptively of course there is, there exists democracies which satisfy the majoritarian principle and have an ethnic constitutional basis. You might not think that it’s *desirable*, or that any democracy should always contingently come with an absolute equality before the law (still reconcilable with ethnic democracy), or even a stronger case where no there should be no ethnic trait to the state (and the problem lies here).

I am not a big fan of democracy, nation states, or any popular based institution. But your claim is too rigid if you also want to maintain a group right of self determination. Or as a matter of fact enable non liberal societies to move towards a liberal path an ethnic democracy might be a necessary pre condition.

Could you provide examples of ''ethnic democracies''? The subject would be fascinating to be discussed in another board, as well the right to self determination (its true meaning, in which cases it's enforceable, which people has precedence in case of territorial conflict...). I'd say that Israel is a particular case and most western democracies have constitutions based on liberal principles, but...

In any case, I think democracy is both defined by the majority rule and by the scrupulous respect for minorities. When the Israeli government tries to disenfranchise (even partially) its official Arab minority with the Nation State Law, it's undermining one of the pillars of democracy. Let alone the existence of a consolidated 'status quo', in fact a one-state reality. Israel extends beyond the pre-1967 border to incorporate the West Bank and the Golan Heights. Given that it's unlikely that Israel resigns territorial gains, the Jewish state or the 'ethnic democracy' seem only possible by the disenfranchisement of nearly 1/2 of the population between the Jordan and the Sea

Most of the European state are ethnic democracies to a degree, even liberal Germany has a law of return for German ethnics. France is really the only state with a clear ethnic/nation separation de jure, the rest are on a spectrum. Israel is a bit closer to Central Europe conception of the nation state where the nationality is also strongly linked with ethnicity.

I don’t think your conceptualization excludes ethnic democracies as long as they provide minorities with ample protection either through human rights or through collective autonomy rights (e.g. the danish minority in SH state of Germany).

The Nation State Law night sound bad on paper but I think it has minimal actual effect. SC ruling in Kaadan already established that the Jewish element trumps equality only in regards of immigrations, “once inside the house we are all equal, it’s only the key to the house where lies the difference”.

The problem here is not of definitions but of ambitions, as both (well large parts of) both national movement demand self determination across the entire territory the conflict arise and then escalated to aggressive steps to solidify power like the disenfranchisement or the discrimination in land laws against Arabs.

But that is a debate about concrete facts, not of conflicting conceptual schemata

The right of return in Germany may well be related to the post-war context, with millions of Germans fleeing former eastern territories and Central European countries. The question to determine whether Germany is an 'ethnic democracy' (I tell you that concept sounds horrible, due to its historical impications) is not the right of return. Does German Basic Law define Germany as ''The Nation of German People'', in the same fashion as Israel with the Jewish people?

With regard to the ethnic character of Central European nations ,-that is more accentuated with regard to Western democracies- and the protection of minorities, Hungary is an imlustrative example of illiberal government mistreating the non-Hungarians. Orban's regime might be, in a sense, a mirror for the 'ethnic democracy' envisioned by the Israeli right (and more centrist emements as well)

The Nation State Law enshrines the notion that Israel is not a state for all its citizens, but only the state for its Jewish majority (excluding disrnfranchised Palestinians, of course). The second-class condition of the official Arab minority is consecrated. Such legiation inspired by 'ethnic democratic' principles is radically illiberal and undemocratic. There is a difference between the majority rule and the tyranny of the majority that you are missing. Ethno-nationalism and liberal democracy are not really compatible

Okay, resident of ethno-nationalist homogenous country. You been to any 'Japanese Only' restaurants lately?

[jaymichaud]

It doesn't seem that Netanyahu is getting actual immunity though. So what exactly is happening with his trial-and could he be convicted?

I haven't seen anything about immunity, though maybe Gantz secretly folded. I think the takeaway from this whole ordeal is that Bibi learned he couldn't get a majority to support active authoritarian-style reforms to the basic law. He cannot change the law, but he almost certainly can twist it and stretch the definitions of legality. One option for instance to ascend to the presidency where he will be beyond persecution. Another option to take a plea deal where he agrees to leave all govt positions permanently in exchange for no/limited prison time. This sort of deal would allow Bibi to become an Israeli 'godfather,' (think Harry Reid) governing from the shadows through interest groups and his loyalists in the Knesset. Bibi certainly has enough loyalists inside Likud to transfer control of the PM slot to someone else but still retain control. This is why Bibi may be looking to co-opt Gantz personally now and potentially allows the govt to last near its full term. Gantz getting the PM slot via rotation at under these circumstances is fine, since he is almost an ideal prisoner for this Gilded Cage. Handing over the PM slot to a unprepared Bibi sycophant could endanger Likud's brand and said person could try to transform the Bibi cult into their cult. Gantz though has few allies, is politically weak, and has some interesting proposals that could improve Likud's appearance. Especially if the Haredim politicos end up in court next year (as theorized) without immunity, making this govt a whole lot more "secular-rightist" than it appears presently.

Or we get another election next year.

Fair enough, but if Gantz genuinely believes he's getting that PM slot he's living in upside down world.

[jaymichaud]

B&W is officially dissolved, Gantz gets to keep the name.

If Labor joins this government and the party becomes history, what’s the odds of Lapid moving left on some issues and Yesh Atid becoming the party of the center-left? Just to fill the gap in the market?