Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[jaymichaud]

Lol Ben Gvir Chad

Must have denied Yamina a couple seats and got in the way of their 61

[jaymichaud]

Anyway, Channel 11 is just repeating what we are all waiting on right now via interviews. If Bibi+ or Gantz+ gets an extra mandate, then the situation becomes what we had after round 2 where Lieberman decides the king. If it stays at 60-60, Leib either chooses to return to Bibi or someone gets bribed to the other side. 60-60 is the worst situation right now.

Not with UTJ and Shas in the coalition. .

[jaymichaud]

Anyway, Channel 11 is just repeating what we are all waiting on right now via interviews. If Bibi+ or Gantz+ gets an extra mandate, then the situation becomes what we had after round 2 where Lieberman decides the king. If it stays at 60-60, Leib either chooses to return to Bibi or someone gets bribed to the other side. 60-60 is the worst situation right now.

I actually don't understand why everyone is acting like Bibi and the right won. He needs 61 seats to truly win. Anything less is more chaos, deadlock, elections, etc. Obviously KL lost, but without a majority snd without Liberman Bibi still hasn't won. Right now he doesn't seem to have either, although that could change.

Oh, I agree. Even in September the headlines were “Deadlock continues” as opposed to “Gantz wins”.

[jaymichaud]

Is there anything to suggest the usual suspects have been tampering with the Exit Polls? Sh*t, everything about their campaign has been fraudulent.

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/liberman-vows-not-to-join-likud-led-coalition-of-right-wing-religious-parties/

Well he’s sticking to his guns.

[jaymichaud]

Israel needs to being back Kadima and run as a ‘center to center-left’ US Democrats style party.

[jaymichaud]

Is there anything to suggest the usual suspects have been tampering with the Exit Polls? Sh*t, everything about their campaign has been fraudulent.

What would that even accomplish? The vote counters/poll workers are beyond their preview and once the votes come in such a conspiracy would be revealed. It was the last two times they seriously tried to influence this part of the election with the video cameras in arab stations, and that failed.

Eh idk

I’ve had a few drinks this afternoon and I’m kinda pissed off so yeah lol

[jaymichaud]

To illustrate the problem here is something I just pulled off of Times of Israel:

“The supreme court is known to be anti-Israel, anti-Jewish and anti-religious, I think it’s almost certain that they would disqualify Netanyahu” he says.

What would happen then?

“Then we’d have to overturn the country,” he responds coolly. “We’ll have to take to the streets and turn everything on its head. We voted for Netanyahu. We didn’t vote for the Supreme Court.”

Chaya Shimoni, a woman in her 70s from Bat Yam, agrees with this sentiment. “My mother taught me that a man is innocent until he is sentenced and sent to prison,” she says as she wraps herself in an Israeli flag. “If the Supreme Court can do whatever it wants, we might as well close everything, the Knesset, the government, everything. That’s not democracy anymore.”

“We’ve had enough of this leftist mafia,” she adds.

Like, what on earth are you even supposed to do with that? What do you do with settlers who actually believe that you purify the land and ripen it for the coming of the messiah by kicking Arabs out of their homes? What do you do with Haredim who believe that not just the Knesset but actually all of creation exists to foster their observance of archaic talmudic law?

You can't argue, reason, sympathize, or otherwise work with that. All you can do is hope that living together in this little country forces them and all of us to seek new ways of living together, to seek the human things that bind us.

Old bat yells at cloud.

[jaymichaud]

With 2/3 of the vote in it's Likud 35 to KL 32. The Joint List has 18 seats. And it's 58-55 for the religious right.

There is literally no way Bibi gets a government out of that. If it actually is that close between the blocs a Gantz-led minority becomes somewhat less unrealistic.

But, alas, I suapect new elections would be most likely out of all of the possibilities.

If The Joint List gets 18 then that would be revolutionary.

[jaymichaud]

Whew my anger/frustration has just turned into second hand embarrassment this morning... you giys need to press the left, center and Lieberman to block him forming a coalition NOW

[jaymichaud]

There is an emerging consensus that it is easier for Bibi to pick off Peretz and Labor (they have three seats) than anyone from Blue and White. I think that is probably naive. Amir Peretz is not a good leader, but he's not a charlatan. I really feel like if the Bibi bloc is held to 59 seats there likely will not he a government. Apparently the right bloc is kind of swinging between 59 and 60 seats in final (unpublished) counts. Tomorrow should help clarify things quite a bit. If Bibi is stuck with only 59 seats the "miracle victory" nonsense will probably be replaced by an appropriate realism.

LOL no

It was suggested the last two times as well

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/lahavharkov/status/1205010955110879232?s=21

Lol, they did it. Madmen.

[jaymichaud]

At this rate can't wait for a Joint List majority government some time around 2045 after the 35th Israeli election in a row

Ghost of Azmi Bishara for PM.

[jaymichaud]

What are double envelopes?

All votes that aren't done in a normal polling place. The largest group of these is soldiers voting on their base, but it also includes prisoners (Israel doesn't disenfranchise anyone), hospital patients, embassy workers (but not just anyone travelling abroad), and new group this time which is people in quarantine because of potentially being exposed to Corona virus.

Who wins the prisoner votes, usually? Likud?

[jaymichaud]

Labor want Peretz out, apparently.

[jaymichaud]

Sure enough, KL is now advancing a bill that would effectively force Netanyahu to resign. The Joint List signalled that they would be happy to be a part of a majority supporting the bill.

Let me introduce you

To my party people

In the cluuuub

[jaymichaud]

Why is no one talking about the fact The Jewish Home went from 12 seats to 1 in just five years?

[jaymichaud]

So which Labor/Meretz MKs lost their seats?

[jaymichaud]

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/BJdpmYCEL

Oof, so it’s confirmed?

[jaymichaud]

This is...interesting. Bogie Yalon, leader of the right wing Telem faction that is part of the three parties comprising Blue and White, says he supports forming a minority government backed by the Joint List. Yalon and Telem have long been seen as the biggest obstacle within Blue and White to a leftist minority government

Wow wow wow, as they say.

Apparently he doesn’t want Balad so we’ll see how that goes down

[jaymichaud]

Even then they were literally on 60 seats following the April elections, so they’re worse off than they were a mere 7 months ago.

[jaymichaud]

https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2020_q1/Article-c60ef7a0d3ca071027.htm?sCh=3d385dd2dd5d4110&pId=1898243326

[jaymichaud]

Wait, Netanyahu announces, you're looking at this all wrong. I did win, and I won big. My bloc got 58 seats and Gantz only got 47. That's a solid majority of the Knesset. What about the Joint List, you ask. "The terror supporters aren't in the picture." They don't count.  

He said the same thing in September, of course. Which only helped create the historic result for the Joint List two nights ago. And it is clear that in the hate-filled little world of the Israeli far right it really would be a better, more pristine country if Arab votes didn't count. But Arab Israelis know better than that. They know that, at least for now, an Arab vote is as good as a Jewish one, and that only by staying homr on election day can that core democratic reality be done away with. So they voted. They voted, in many places, at a 70 to 80 percent turnout. They earned their chosen party three extra mandates--the exact number Bibi's phantom majority is missing. Of course Bibi is trying to delegitimize their achievement, then. After all, if Gantz and his allies have the courage to honor the mandate given by voters, that achievement will be Netanyahu's political death. That those most responsible for his fall will he those he spent a career anathemizing will be one of the sweetest and most hopeful moments in this country's short history.

The future in Israel is too often marked by the shadowy gloom of conflict and injustice. This, though, is an unmistakeable bright spot. A very small one, but it gives just enough light to see a more cooperative, hopeful future based on building bridges rather than walls.

I mean, if Netanyahu's bloc got an actual majority is it that big of a stretch to imagine them drafting a bill to outlaw the Joint List? (or at least parts of it)

Especially considering Israel's current law already outlaws non-Zionist parties if I remember correctly, even if that part is not exactly enforced.

Lol no. They didn’t even ban Haneen Zoabi for one election, banning The Joint List is out of the question.

[jaymichaud]

Are there any statements from any JL MKs?

[jaymichaud]

Lieberman's terms for entering a coalition:
Conscription law as agreed upon last year, minimum income of 70% from the minimum wage for seniors who live from benefits, moving all authority on public transportation and businesses in Saturday to the municipal authorities, civil marriage, and conversion by any city Rabbies (would make it easier). Gantz's response: "Agreed".

If somehow they make it happen... we might just get same sex marriage soon. KL needs to start passing these laws immediately when a government is formed to distract from any right-wing provocations regarding the Joint List.

I wouldn't count on the JL with SSMs...Balad and parts of Hadash might be the only supporters. don't forget Ra'am and Ta'al have a lot of people making a living from the 9 (thirteen!) Islamic courts operating in Israel

Some MKs on the right will make up for those votes. Ohana (of course), Regev, Kahlon, Haskel etc.

What’s YBs stance on SSM? I haven’t seen anything but we all know the Russian community can be quite homophobic