2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[CellarDoor]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

That margin is a likely Biden win, right, given the Indy split and crossovers? How much do Rs need to be ahead to feel good?

I saw some analysis this morning that estimated Biden had a 600K early vote lead (that was when Dems had a 118K Registration advantage). Who knows what the truth is, but we should expect R's to be ahead by registration. They were ahead in 2016 81% to 74%.  Also Dems do tend to vote later in the day and we haven't heard from Miami yet, I believe.

[CellarDoor]

The Miami-Dade county website says that early votes is completely reported, ED is not reported and mail vote is partially reported.

https://enr.electionsfl.org/DAD/2779/Summary/

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/djquinlan/status/1324190172993318913

Not sure who this is, but FWIW.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1324324886257508353

A reminder to Republicans that Black people aren't stupid.  I've been consistent in arguing that Black voters are one of the most pragmatic groups in the country.  They tend to be more conservative on social issues, but see wedge issues for what they are, and continue to vote for their economic interests.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1324382660232388608

[CellarDoor]

If Biden wins Georgia. Stacy Abrams needs to be the chair of the DNC cause whatever she doing she's doing it right.

Lol

She lost her own election and hasnt done anything of note since. Biden won Georgia because Trump is a lemming. They're going to lose both senate seats in a moth or so anyways.

That is not true.  She has led an effort to increase voter engagement and register new voters.  You can't deny those efforts is part of the reason why Georgia is so close, and might end up a Biden win.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324473707121778688?s=20

I agree with this.  Voting Trump out was the first step.

[CellarDoor]

It is not controversial to point out that Joe Biden is not a popular or charismatic politician. Either is Kamala Harris - hence the Democrat primaries.

So there needs to be some careful analysis of the vote count. IMHO a significant number of the votes are down to the 'get rid of Trump' sentiment, and likely very little to do with any enthusiasm for Biden.

I don't know whether "controversial" is the right term but this is certainly not true.  Biden/Harris are two of the most popular national figures in this country.  Their favorability ratings remained high throughout the election.

[CellarDoor]

Why was I unaware the PA Lt. Governor is a literal giant? Dude looks like he could end all of this by just eating Trump

He lost a ton of weight recently. I wish he got the nod for senator in 2016. he would have crushed Toomey.

Think he'll throw his hat in the ring for 2022?

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1324505323508584449

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/AGrumpyKoala/status/1324657587917221889

Would any of these legal shenanigans work?

No.  The MI lead is 150K.  I don't see any scenario where that could flip back.  WI has a lead of ~20K.  I'm sure they'll try to recount it but I don't believe a statewide recount in WI has ever yielded a change of more than ~300 votes.  PA is likely to not be very close in the end.

[CellarDoor]

WhY iS hE CaMpAiGNinG iN GeOrGiA???

Pretty amazing, isn't it?  His last trip to the state appears to have been very important, both for taking the state on the Presidential race and making sure both Senate races go to a runoff.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1324856779969355780

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/breaking_et/status/1324861371314532354

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1325021880022147079?s=19

This is hilarious.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/delrayser/status/1325128599725355010?s=19