European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Diouf]

PD also ahead of M5S in EP poll. Lega at 28 seats, which I guess on current polls is not fully enough to beat CDU/CSU as the biggest delegation. Fratelli D'Italia only of the minor parties to cross the threshold.

Lega 33.0% 28 seats
PD 21.2% 18 seats
M5S 21.1% 18 seats
FI 9.7% 8 seats
FdI 4.1% 4 seats
Lista sinistra 3.0%
+E 2.7%
Onda Verde e Civica 1.8%


http://sondaggibidimedia.com/sondaggio-bidimedia-elezioni-europee-24-3/

[Diouf]

Vestager seems like the spitzenkandidat in all but name. She will represent ALDE in the main TV debate at EBU, which it seems Guy Verhofstadt was not all that happy about. The EBU debate will be on 15 May at 21:00, from the Brussels plenary chamber.

http://newsmonkey.be/article/93407

[Diouf]

Angelika Mlinar, who was elected a MEP in Austria in 2014 for NEOS, is running in Slovenia for Stranka Alenke Bratušek in 2019. Mlinar has Carinthian Slovene heritage. I'm not sure I have seen other incumbent MEPs run in another country this year?

[Diouf]

The Vestager effect is seemingly becoming evident in Danish EU polls.
In the below Norstat poll for Altinget & Jyllands-Posten, the party is at 11.7% and 2 seats.
Also worth noting that the People's Movement against the EU is also in a very tight place here. They just win the 14th and last seat ahead of Social Democrats here.

Social Democrats 23.4% 3 seats
SPP 6.1% 1 seat

Liberals 19.2% 3 seats
Conservatives 4,8% 1 seat
Liberal Alliance 2,7% 0 seats

DPP 15,3% 2 seats

Social Liberals 11,7% 2 seats
Alternative 3,3% 0 seats

Red-Green Alliance 6,4% 1 seat
People's Movement against the EU 5,5% 1 seat

[Diouf]

Phoenix poll in CZ. Surprisingly, Pirates at top with ANO only in 2nd place. The latter still leads national polls clearly. But in these ultra-turnout elections (18% in 2014, 24% expected in this poll in 2019), who knows? There are still a lot of undecideds, and many votes for the mini-parties. The threshold is 5%.

[Diouf]

https://www.politico.eu/article/slovenian-pm-we-need-a-commission-that-obeys-rule-of-law/

Marjan Šarec endorses Vestager as Commission President:

"He will be one of the 28 EU leaders (or 27, if Britain has managed to leave by then) charged with nominating the next president of the European Commission later this year. And he already has one prominent candidate in mind — Margrethe Vestager, the competition commissioner, who hails from Šarec's ALDE political family and is also from a relatively small country, Denmark.

Officially, Vestager is one of a slate of ALDE candidates for top EU jobs but she is widely regarded as the liberals' best shot at the Commission presidency.

Vestager is “one of the best commissioners. We talked several times and I see her view on the future of the European Union ... is common sense," Šarec said."

[Diouf]

PNL now topping EP poll in Romania. Former PM and EU commissioner Dacian Cioloș is the lead candidate for the 2020 Alliance (but is not expected to take up a seat) between his party PLUS and Save Romania Union. I think it's still an open question what group, they will join. EPP perhaps most likely. Former PM Victor Ponta is leading the list for his new PRO Romania party (but won't take up his seat) with a very strong list; also including current EU commissioner Corina Crețu, former PM Mihai Tudose and former Moldovan PM Iurie Leanca. PRO have joined European Democratic Party, which normally sits in the ALDE group. The Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania and Basescu's People's Movement Party are both just around the 5% threshold.

[Diouf]

PRO have joined European Democratic Party

Can you share any link with that information confirmed?

http://www.democrats.eu/en/member/pro-romania

[Diouf]

In Denmark, the deadline for parties to run have also passed. 10 parties are running. Nine of them are running in four different electoral alliances while DPP run on their own.
Social Democrats + SPP run together
Liberals, Conservatives + Liberal Alliance run together
Red-Green Alliance + People's Movement against EU run together
Social Liberals + Alternative run together.

So this means that neither New Right, Christian Democrats nor Klaus Riskær Pedersen managed to become eligible to run by being elected to parliament or collecting 70 000 signatures. New Right are slightly above 3% in the polling average for the national parliament, where they have mostly drawn DPP voters, so you would expect DPP to benefit from New Right's absence. Christian Democrats and Riskær have around 1% each currently, and these votes would probably mostly flow towards the government parties, although Riskær did seem to have attracted a fair bit of former DPPers, at least initially.

[Diouf]

Sunder Katwala list on % needed to get a seat in each of the UK regions. The Droop quota is the share that ensures a seat, while the left column shows how big a share was needed to win the last seat in 2014. The actual share can be different in 2019 depending on how many and how big parties are in contention for the seats. The polls so far has had several parties in this twilight zone, where it could just miss out on seats in most regions. I guess its more likely that there's consolidation on the hard Brexit side with Brexit Party eating UKIP, while I'm less sure that the hard Remain side fall in line between one of Greens, Lib Dem and CUK. That would probably require party coordination, where only one of them runs in each region, which I'm not sure is super likely? Also Labour can probably better make enough Remain noises to attract/keep some hard remainers, while it's probably more difficult for Conservatives to attract/keep hard brexiters.

[Diouf]

In the YouGov poll, Conservatives with a bigger share among 2016 Remain (16%) voters than 2016 Leave (14%) voters. The poll doesn't ask current referendum vote, but if it follows the general trend of a slight move towards Remain, it is likely to in absolute terms be more current remainers than leavers among conservative EP voters.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vdqicng3bz/PeoplesVote_190416_EUElections_w.pdf

[Diouf]

David Borrelli has joined Europa+ and ALDE. Borrelli was the lead M5S MEP, and co-President of EFDD until early January 2017. I guess he must have been the primary negotiator in the botched attempt for M5S to join ALDE. He left M5S in early 2018, and joined the non-inscrits. He will candidate in next month's election for his new party in Italy's North-East region, where he was elected in 2014.

[Diouf]

Factum poll in Latvia. The filled stars indicate seats. Note Latvia uses the Sainte-Laguë method, not D'Hondt method. 2 seats for Social Democratic Harmony, whose list is led by party leader and Riga mayor Nils Usakovs. It sounds likely that he will take up the seat. EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis led Unity to 4 seats and almost half the seats in 2014. Since then the party largely melted down, but somehow ended up with the Premiership anyway as the smallest party in parliament. They look set to finish in 2nd place here, but narrowly missing out on an additional seat, so Dombrovskis could be elected alone this time. For the National Alliance, Roberts Zīle has been an MEP since Latvian entry in 2004 and looks set to continue. New Conservative Party, Development/For! and Union of Greens and Farmers all look fairly certain to win a seat. The newish left wing party, The Progressives, founded in 2017, only won 2.6% in the 2018 general election, but in this poll, they just manage to cross the 5% threshold and win a seat. The Latvian Russian Union won 3.2% in 2018, but is very close to winning a seat here. Who owns the state?, who won an impressive 14.2% in 2018, seems to have imploded after their chaotic government formation proces, and is only at 3% here.

[Diouf]

A new Danish EP poll by Greens for Børsen. A poll much closer to national polls than most of the other EP polls. A much stronger Social Democrat showing, and a government meltdown. Bizarrely, they included an option "Other parties" in the poll despite no other parties running. Since the 3, perhaps soon 4 parties, running in the general election but not in the EP election are all centre-right to right wing, this of course hurts the right wing parties somewhat.

Social Democrats 27.2% 4 seats
SPP 7.5% 1 seat

Liberals 16.2% 3 seats
Conservatives 3.8% 0 seats
Liberal Alliance 1.6% 0 seats

DPP 16.8% 2 seats

Red-Green Alliance 6.9% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 5.8% 1 seat

Social Liberals 9.4% 1 seats (2 seats if UK leave)
Alternative 2.5% 0 seats.

Other parties 2.3%

[Diouf]

Tonight was the first TV debate between the ten lead candidates for the parties running in the EP elections. And the state broadcaster DR published an Epinion poll alongside it.


Left to right: Jeppe Kofod (Social Democrats), Mette Bock (Liberal Alliance), Peter Kofod (DPP), Margrethe Auken (SPP), Nikolaj Villumsen (Red-Green Alliance), Rasmus Nordqvist (Alternative), Rina Ronja Kari (People's Movement against EU), Pernille Weiss (Conservatives), Morten Helveg Petersen (Social Liberals), Morten Løkkegaard (Liberals).

Social Democrats 25.7% 4 seats
SPP 7.2% 1 seat

Liberals 18.4% 3 seats
Conservatives 4.7% 0 seats (1 seat if UK leave)
Liberal Alliance 2.8% 0 seats

DPP 15.9% 2 seats

Red-Green Alliance 7.1% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 6.5% 1 seat

Social Liberals 8.9% 1 seat
Alternative 2.7% 0 seats

[Diouf]

ALDE making way for a new Romanian member, it seems. Ponta's new PRO party has joined EDP, but this could make it easier for them to join the ALDE group. The 2020 Alliance (USR + PLUS) might also have a clearer path to join that group now.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1121397943351644160

[Diouf]

One of the great political dynasties of Europe could provide another MEP:

A third descendant of Italy’s long-time fascist dictator Benito Mussolini is entering the political arena.

Caio Giulio Cesare Mussolini — Mussolini’s great-grandson, whose name is taken from one of ancient Rome’s most famous rulers — is running as a candidate in European elections for the far-right Brothers of Italy Party.

Party leader Giorgia Meloni announced Mussolini’s candidacy over the weekend. His political ambitions follow those of his second cousins, Alessandra Mussolini, an EU parliamentarian for Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, and Rachele Mussolini, a Rome city council member associated with Brothers of Italy.

Caio Mussolini, 51, was a naval officer for 15 years, then an executive in Italy’s largest defense contractor Finmeccanica before turning to politics.

“He is a professional, a serviceman, a patriot,” Meloni said against the backdrop of the multi-arched facade of the Palace of Italian Civilization that was built by Benito Mussolini and known to modern-day Romans as the “Squared Colosseum.”

https://www.timesofisrael.com/third-mussolini-descendant-enters-italian-political-arena/?fbclid=IwAR3v80BiPmDuySl3YxLFO1KeOC2M2KgcO0MyatKBM4ac2A3-gvAQPRH-nns

[Diouf]

Inizio for Aftonbladet. The Swedish threshold is 4%

Social Democrats 24.9% 5 seats
Sweden Democrats 17.4% 4 seats
Moderates 15.9% 3 seats (4 seats if UK leave)
Centre Party 9.4% 2 seats
Christian Democrats 9.0% 2 seats
Green Party 8.7% 2 seats
Left Party 7.6% 2 seats
Liberals 3.7% 0 seats
Feminist Initiative 1.4% 0 seats
Others 1.9% 0 seats

[Diouf]

YouGov poll of Scotland

SNP 40% 3/4 seats
Labour 14% 1 seat
Brexit Party 13% 1 seat
Conservatives 10% 0/1 seat
Greens 7% 0 seats
Lib Dem 6% 0 seats
Change UK 6% 0 seats
UKIP 3% 0 seats

[Diouf]

Based on voting patterns, M5S was apparently closest to the Green group in this term, but I guess it is unlikely to happen. If they can find other "free souls", they would prefer their own group, but not sure that's superlikely either.

https://twitter.com/mvanhulten/status/1120645535197741057

[Diouf]

YouGov newest has voters splitting towards the poles. 3 Hard Remain parties on 27%, 2 Hard Brexit parties on 33%. Conservative down on 13%, so nearing the territory, where they could miss out on seats in several constituencies.

BREX 28%
LAB 22%
CON 13%
CHUK 10%
GRN 10%
LD 7%
UKIP 5%
Others 6%

[Diouf]

It's worth noting that CHUK is up a couple of points in all recent polls, despite their launch having been universally agreed to be deeply unimpressive. Which suggests that a) there's still a good chance of vote-splitting amongst the pro-remain parties leading to them missing out on seats and b) most of the country still isn't paying much attention.

Welcome to the forum.

Is there a risk of Remain parties blocking each other from a lot of seats? I know this is already the case in places like Northern Ireland

Since Northern Ireland uses STV, that should basically be the only part of the UK where parties are not really blocking each other in the European elections. In many other constituencies, it is likely that none of the 3 smaller Remain parties end up without seats. Their vote is probably concentrated a bit in London and the South, which can help somewhat. The question is of course whether they should have allied? Change UK does not seem to agree on a whole lot apart from opposition to Brexit, so they were perhaps the keenest on a apolitical anti-Brexit alliance (a Brexit Party opposite). But Lib Dems and Greens are real parties with real policies (who differ quite a lot), so I think it makes sense for them to continue with their own identities.
If, as looks very likely, the Brexit Party wins the most votes and most seats, but a majority of those voting prefers Remain, then you would of course think that most English media would focus on the former. It might be an almost impossible job, but the three parties should probably do what they can to lead attention on the latter now they have decided not to ally.

[Diouf]

The Danish candidate lists are now official. Most of it was known already, but the Social Liberals made an interesting late addition. Former MP Nadeem Farooq has been added to the list. He was an MP from 2011-2015, when he was Financial Spokesperson for the party. He vigorously articulated and defended the Social Liberals' economic policies, which caused a lot of ire with their coalition partnerns. He didn't run in 2015, and has been a deputy director in the Employers’ Association for the Financial Sector since. The Social Liberals are close to or on two seats in several recent polls, and he should be in play for that second seat. The biggest competitor is likely to be Karen Melchior, a radical Copenhagen City councillor, who finished 2nd for the Social Liberals in 2014 with 10 412 votes. Farooq also seems like the only candidate with an immigrant background, who really stands a chance.



Full candidate list:
https://valg.oim.dk/media/22468/fortegnelse-over-opstillede-kandidatlister-partier-og-opstillede-kandidater-til-europa-parlamentsvalget-2019.pdf

[Diouf]

The Danish "Who do you agree with the most?" is here: https://www.altinget.dk/kandidater/ep19/

My top5 candidates were from Liberals and Conservatives, ranging from 76-71%. Jens Møller Jensen from the Liberals was no 1, while the PM's son, Bergur Løkke Rasmussen, was 5th. I agreed the least with a Red-Green candidate.

In the Dutch one, I had a tight top3 with CDA first at 53%, VVD second at 50% and FvD at 50%

In the Austrian one, there seemed to be a lot of questions about Europeanizing some things, that might be good ideas, but is not EU competence nor likely to be, and probably shouldn't be. So ended up with FPÖ on top with 93, ÖVP on 26 and all others in minus.

[Diouf]

Two new Danish polls

Epinion for DR

Social Democrats 27.4% 4 seats
SPP 8.5% 1 seat

Liberals 19.8% 4 seats
Conservatives 4.1% 0 seats
Liberal Alliance 2.9% 0 seats

People's Movement against the EU 6.9% 1 seats
Red-Green Alliance 6.4% 1 seat

Social Liberals 8.3% 1 seats (2 if UK leaves)
Alternative 3.8% 0 seats

DPP 11.9% 1 seat

Norstat for Jyllands-Posten & Altinget

Social Democrats 27.7% 4 seats
SPP 7.2% 1 seat

Liberals 18.1% 3 seats (4 seats if UK leave)
Conservatives 3.9% 0 seats
Liberal Alliance 3.5% 0 seats

Red-Green Alliance 7.3% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 6.8% 1 seat

DPP 13.4% 2 seats

Social Liberals 8.6% 1 seat
Alternative 3.4% 0 seats