European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Diouf]

No fluent French speaker, but this interview with Verhofstadt seems quite interesting.

From translated versions, it seems that ALDE has reached agreement with EnMarche, and that it will be announced in October. Perhaps with the name 'Génération Europe'. Verhofstadt seems to have accepted Macron's opposition to the "Spitzenkandidat" system after the transnational lists were rejected. He seems to say that this system means that it is Merkel picking the Commission leader. Interesting which influence this will get on the whole process. Verhofstadt also talks about setting a precondition for parties in this movement, that they run candidates from other countries as a way to create the transnational democracy, that wasn't created with the lists. And of course he talks a lot about the battle between Nationalists and Globalists etc, against Orban and Salvini etc.

Will be interesting to see whether the rightwing liberal parties (VVD, Venstre, ANO etc.) will take part in this endavour

https://www.ouest-france.fr/politique/elections/elections-europeennes/entretien-exclusif-le-liberal-verhofstadt-s-allie-avec-macron-aux-europeennes-5959435

[Diouf]

Petra de Sutter has been nominated as spitzenkandidat by Groen. The 55-year old transgender professor of gynaecology currently sits in the Belgian Senate.

[Diouf]

Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič announced officially on Monday (17 September) his candidacy to be the leading candidate of his social-democrat political group in the campaign for the 2019 European elections.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/sefcovic-officially-enters-the-spitzenkandidaten-battle/

[Diouf]

Four Greens want to be Spitzenkandidaten



Four candidates have signed up to become Spitzenkandidat for the Greens. They are Petra De Sutter, Senator, nominated by Groen, Belgium; Bas Eickhout, MEP, nominated by GroenLinks, the Netherlands; Ska Keller, MEP, nominated by Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Germany; and Atanas Schmidt, business man, nominated by Zelena Partija, Bulgaria. The four candidates will now need to drum up support of at least 5 additional EU European Green Party member parties by 28 September to be able to proceed to the next phase. Then European Green Party delegates across Europe will then elect the two leading candidates at their next Council between 23-25 November in Berlin.

https://europeangreens.eu/content/four-greens-enter-race-become-european-green-party-leading-candidates

[Diouf]

Matteo Renzi: "We should build a European coalition with Macron, Greens, Liberals and Tsipras. Frans Timmermans should be our candidate for Commission President".

https://www.huffingtonpost.it/2018/09/20/alle-europee-con-macron-e-tsipras-e-timmermans-candidato-alla-presidenza-della-commissione_a_23534008/

[Diouf]

Oettinger and Moscovici are probably only more known in that they come from larger member states. Especially Moscovici has been completely invisible, certainly from a Northern European perspective. Oettinger might have been noticed by a small EU-interested leftwing niche as a posterboy of the crooked relationsship between centre-right politicians and big industry in Germany, but I don't think many others could pick him out from the crowd.

Based on my experience, these commissioners have gotten any screentime in Denmark this term:

Much:Juncker (quite a lot, and many more know him than Barrosso), Vestager (obvious in DK)
Some:Mogherini (Iran), Malmström (trade deals), Timmermans (for the Poland stuff)
A bit: Avramopoulos (migration crisis but mostly overshadowed on the subject by Juncker, Tusk and national leaders ),  Thyssen (specific Danish issue. Barely seen on screen, but in many newspaper articles because of her flat-out rejection of all Danish proposals on welfare benefits).

[Diouf]

As expected, Barnier will not run to become EPP spitzenkandidat. He is focusing on Brexit. However, ZDF reports that Alexander Stubb, former Finnish PM, will announce his candidature on Tuesday.

[Diouf]

Moderates support Stubb

https://www.facebook.com/1694628737439476/posts/2248828152019529/

[Diouf]

Manfred Weber wants Bulgaria and Croatia in Schengen - obviously not looking for that GERB/HDZ vote for his candidacy.

HDZ officially behind Weber.

http://hr.n1info.com/a336560/English/NEWS/HDZ-to-support-Manfred-Weber-s-candidacy-in-EP-election.html

[Diouf]

My guesses right now on the ones with gains would be:

PT: +2
BG: +2 (though only +1 is also possible)
MT: +1 (as badly as PN is doing there's no way for a 5-1 split)
LV: +1
SE: +1 (but this one is very dependent on how the government forms)
DK: +1 (+2 might be doable but I guess it's unlikely)
ES: +1 (though 0 or +2 might also happen, also depends on how the current government holds and if there are snap elections or not)

The Danish picture remains relatively muddy. A number of unknowns:
When will the General Election be held? (close to/at the same time as the EP vote, or earlier in December/January)
What will be the result of the General Election? (A Social Democrat minority government with 27-28% and on a high, or just above 20% as left wing voters flock to other parties. Or a Liberal-DPP-Conservative government with defeated Social Democrats in chaos?)
Who will be the DPP lead candidate? (the party topped the polls in 2014 with 26.6%, but they still haven't chosen candidates for 2019)
Will the New Right run?, and if so in an alliance with DPP or alone as (likely)wasted votes (depends on whether there is an general election, where they cross the threshold before the EP campaign
Will Magrethe Vestager run as a lead candidate for Commission President and if so how will it affect the race? (Likely boost for Social Liberals among centre-left voters. Will Social Democrats indicate support for her?).

The information we already have is:
Denmark will have one additional seat (from 13 to 14) which would have been won by Liberals in 2014.
There are two additional left wing parties on the ballot this time. The Alternative and the Red-Green Alliance. The former is a party with problems but a quite strong candidate, while the latter is a strong party with a quite weak candidate.
The Red Bloc Parties are currently stronger than in 2014 (51-52% in polls, compared to 45-47% in 2014)
The Social Democrats are currently stronger than in 2014 (25-27% in polls, compared to 19-21% in 2014).
The Social Democrat lead candidate is the same under average candidate as in 2014 (MEP Jeppe Kofoed).
The lead candidate field is on average, perhaps slightly worse than in 2014 but much will be decided by the DPP lead candidate.
The centre-right electoral alliance will be stronger this time (Liberal Alliance joins Liberals and Conservatives in electoral alliance, and have a fairly strong candidate in Minister of Culture Mette Bock. In 2014, they ran on their own so the 2.9% were wasted in that regard).
The Social Democrat electoral alliance will be weaker this time (Social Liberals are running in an electoral alliance with the Alternative, so the Social Democrats only partner is SPP. Effect will be even worse if Social Liberals get a Vestager boost)

So a number of things counting for and against.

[Diouf]

Weber looks well ahead in terms of gathering EPP support

So with this, I think declared for Weber are CDU/CSU, CDA, Nea Demokratia, HDZ, GERB, DISY, Fine Gael, ÖVP and PNL.

Declared for Stubb are Moderates, Pro Patria and NCP.

Have anybody seen other declarations?

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https://www.politico.eu/article/manfred-weber-gets-commission-top-job-support-from-epp-leaders-spitzenkandidat/

[Diouf]

Weber is also supported by Slovenian SDS & SMK–MKP and KDH from Slovakia.

Still some big parties (Republicans, PO, PP, Fidesz, FI) left, but seems like Weber will sew this up quite easily. Great that there is a battle, and that is a significant one in terms of policies, even though it seems Weber is not much op for public debates before the congress.

[Diouf]

Matteo Salvini mulls bid for Commission presidency

https://www.politico.eu/article/matteo-salvini-commission-presidency-european-elections-2019-mulls-bid/

[Diouf]

LMŠ to officially become part of ALDE in November
Brussels, 17 October - The party of Prime Minister Marjan Šarec (LMŠ) will officially join the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe group (ALDE) in the European Parliament at a November congress in Madrid, Šarec confirmed for the press after attending a meeting of the liberals in Brussels on Wednesday


https://english.sta.si/2564444/lms-to-officially-become-part-of-alde-in-november

[Diouf]

Danish Conservatives supporting Weber

[Diouf]

Sefcovic withdraws from Social Democrat spitzenkandidat race, and endorses Timmermans.

[Diouf]

Of course Timmermans' real goal is not to lead the European Commission (virtually impossible as S&D's leading candidate given the abysmal polls for Social Democrats throughout Europe, but especially in France and Germany) but to be in pole position to succeed Mogherini as High Representative for Foreign Affairs. The question is whether the Dutch government is going to allow him to, given that the PvdA are in opposition and only have nine seats out of 150.

Will he at least run for PvdA in the EP elections? If he does, and does very well, I guess that might help him a bit

[Diouf]

Les Républicains also for Weber. Gonna be a yuuuge win.

Laurent Wauquiez
@laurentwauquiez
J'apporte tout mon soutien à mon ami @ManfredWeber pour qu'il devienne le Spitzenkandidat du @PPE. Une Europe qui protège et fière de ses valeurs : je sais qu'il porte le meilleur projet pour le futur de notre continent. Un projet que nous défendrons ensemble. #Up2EU

[Diouf]

EPP delegate vote:

621 votes, 2 invalid.

492 votes for Weber so must be 127 for Stubb

[Diouf]

It isn't completely clear what ALDE will do in terms of spitzenkandidaten. Some of them have suddenly been critical of the concept, perhaps to lure over Macron. I think they will end up nominating someone. Their Madrid congress has started, and according to their original plan, this is the time where the opening of nominations will start.

[Diouf]

From what I've heard at the opening of the ALDE congress, it sounds like ALDE will not pick a Spitzenkandidat, but a team of frontline campaigners. I don't know how big this team will be.

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https://www.aldeparty.eu/press-releases/european-liberals-present-campaign-team-2019-elections

[Diouf]

Perhaps the Liberal campaign team will simply be one ALDE candidate and one En Marche candidate? From looking at tweets and hearing the speeches, there seems to be an expectation of a Vestager candidacy. Bulc's speech in particular ended with a note about wanting a strong liberal woman to lead Europe, and it seemed to me that she turned towards Vestager after saying it. But she could have been thinking of herself of course

[Diouf]

Danish EU Poll by Wilke for Policywatch

Parties grouped by electoral coalition below (compared to 2014)

Social Democrats 22.4% (+3.3%) 4 seats (+1)
SPP 7.5% (-3.5%) 1 seat (=)

Liberals 18.7% (+2.0%) 3 seats (+1)
Conservatives 5.9% (-3.2%) 1 seat (=)
Liberal Alliance 3.5% (+0.6%) 0 seats (=)

People's Movement against EU 7.3% (-0.8%) 1 seat (=)
Red-Green Alliance 9.2% (new) 1 seat (new)

Social Liberals 7.5% (+1.0%) 1 seat (=)
Alternative 4.1% (new) 0 seats (new)

DPP 13.8% (-12.8%) 2 seats (-2)


It is still a long time to the election. As previously mentioned, there are still several unknowns (when and how will the general election onfold, who will be DPP's lead candidate, how big a role will Margrethe Vestager play etc.).
I would be suprised if DPP falls by this much, even though Messerschmidt was an exceptional candidate last time. The Red-Greens looks like they will make quite an entry on the EU scene if this poll is correct.

The first 13 seats are fairly safe if this is the result. The 14th seat is tight between several parties. The Social Democrats just nick their 4th seat ahead of Alternative, Liberals and Red-Green Alliance.

[Diouf]

PSD still looms large in Romania. Ponta's new party, Pro Romania, looks set to start out well with 9%. Ciolos used to be in Miscarea Romania Impreuna, but seems to have started a new outfit Partidul Libertăţii, Unităţii şi Solidarităţii (PLUS), which was not started in time for this poll.

[Diouf]

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https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-silvio-berlusconi-to-run-in-european-election/


European Commissioner Corina Cretu will rune for the EP for the party set up by former prime minister Victor Ponta – Pro Romania. Ponta nominated Cretu as commissioner back in 2014, where she had also run as PSD lead candidate for the party in the EP elections.