European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Diouf]

Megafon exit poll for TV2. A fair bit better for DPP which secures them 2 seats. Another poor exit poll for the Far Left alliance, which only looks likely to get 1 seat, which means the People's Movement against EU loses it seats (it has been represented since the first EP election in 1979). Another good poll for SPP and Social Liberals, but their second seats are much more doubtful here than in the Epinion poll.

Social Democrats 22.4% 3 seats
SPP 11.7% 2 seats

Liberals 20.4% 3 seats
Conservatives 5.7% 1 seat
Liberal Alliance 2.9% 0 seats

DPP 14.2% 2 seats

Social Liberals 9.1% 1 seat (2 if UK leaves)
Alternative 3.2% 0 seats

Red-Green Alliance 5.8% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 4.6% 0 seats

[Diouf]

Epinion exit poll updated with more respondents. Not big movements. DPP up to 12.0%, edging closer to a second seat (at least as a potential seat if UK leaves). In their poll, it would take 12.4% for DPP to take the 14th seat from the Social Democrats.

[Diouf]

The latest French projection had Renaissance at 22 seats, which would mean that Sandro Gozi, a former minister in Renzi's government, would just get in as he is 22nd on the list.

[Diouf]

Exit poll, Ipsos:

SIX former Polish Prime Ministers will be sitting in the European Parliament:

Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz (KE, 1996-1997)
Jerzy Buzek (KE, 1997-2001)
Leszek Miller (KE, 2001-2004)
Marek Belka (KE, 2004-2005)
Ewa Kopacz (KE, 2014-2015)
Beata Szydlo (PiS, 2015-2017)

[Diouf]

Denmark projected result with 95% counted. Liberals looks like they will be biggest party in percentage and seats. My guess would be that popular MP Søren Gade did really well in Jutland. Conservatives looks like retaining their seat. Great results for SPP and Soical Liberals, who both win 2 seats. There is a tiny margin between Social Liberals and Liberals, who are on the 13th and 14th seat now, with the latter depending on UK leaving. Terrible result for DPP, who only wins 1 seat. And really poor result for the Far Left Alliance compared to expectations. Most polls had it on 11-15%, but they are only at 9%, and the People's Movement is out. 9% is still better than the 8.1% that the People's Movement won alone in 2014, but far below the expected.

Social Democrats 21.9% 3 seats
SPP 13.1% 2 seats

Liberals 23.5% 3 seats (4 if UK leave)
Conservatives 6.2% 1 seat
Liberal Alliance 2.3% 0 seats

Social Liberals 10.1% 2 seats
Alternative 3.1% 0 seats

DPP 10.9% 1 seat

Red-Green Alliance 5.2% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 3.8% 0 seats

Goodnight.

[Diouf]

I have made a polling average of the last polls from the three pollsters, who have continously polled on the EP question (Norstat, Epinion & Megafon). YouGov had a poll today in BT, but the percentages combined to 103,5%, so that shows the seriousness with which even the pollsters treat this election.
Below I will make the distribution of seats among the electoral alliances and parties in the order the polling average predicts. I have tried to name the expected MEPs. Denmark have 13 seats (14 if UK leave). I have also shown those who are closest to a seat (15-18) The percentage at the end is the D'Hondt coefficient for that seat.

1. Centre-left Alliance (1st Social Democrat. Incumbent MEP Jeppe Kofod) 32.4%
2. Government Alliance (1st Liberal. Current MP Søren Gade) 28.2%
3. Centre-left Alliance (2nd Social Democrat. Incumbent MEP Christel Schaldemose). 16.2%
4. DPP (1st DPP. Current MP Peter Kofod) 14.7%
5. Government Alliance (2nd Liberal. Incumbent MEP Morten Løkkegaard) 14.1%
6. Far Left Alliance (1st People's Movement against EU. Incumbent MEP Rina Ronja Kari) 12.7%
7. Green Alliance (1st Social Liberal. Incumbent MEP Morten Helveg Petersen) 12.0%
8. Centre-left Alliance (1st SPP. Incumbent MEP Margrethe Auken) 10.8%
9. Government Alliance (3rd Liberal. Probably farmer & local councillor Asger Christensen/communicator Linea Søgaard-Lidell or business student & regional councillor Bergur Løkke Rasmussen) 9.4%
10. Centre-left Alliance (3rd Social Democrat. Likely Ph.D fellow Niels Fuglsang) 8.1%
11. DPP (2nd DPP. Incumbent MEP Anders Vistisen) 7.4%
12. Government Alliance (1st Conservative. Business woman Pernille Weiss) 7.1%
13. Centre-left Alliance (4th Social Democrat. Likely deputy union leader Marianne Vind) 6.5%

14. Far Left Alliance (1st Red-Green. Current MP Nikolaj Villumsen) 6.4%

15. Green Alliance (2nd Social Liberal. City councillor Karen Melchior or former MP Nadeem Farooq) 6.0%
16. Government Alliance (4th Liberal. Probably farmer & local councillor Asger Christensen/communicator Linea Søgaard-Lidell or business student & regional councillor Bergur Løkke Rasmussen) 5.6%
17. Centre-left Alliance (2nd SPP. Current MP Karsten Hønge will probably win the seat, but prefer to stay as MP, so it would go to former mayor Kirstine Bille or former deputy leader Peter Westermann) 5.4%
18. DPP (3rd DPP. Current MP Pia Adelsteen) 4.9%.

The personal votes are now counted, so we know all the MEPs. I have also calculated the order.

1 Centre-left Alliance (1st Social Democrat. Incumbent MEP Jeppe Kofod with 188 757 personal votes)
2 Government Alliance (1st Liberal. Incumbent MEP Morten Løkkegaard with 207 558 personal votes)
3 Centre-left Alliance (1st SPP. Incumbent MEP Margrethe Auken with 199 522 personal votes)
4 Government Alliance (2nd Liberal. MP Søren Gade with 201 626 personal votes)
5 Green Alliance (1st Social Liberal. Incumbent MEP Morten Helveg Petersen with 97 667 personal votes)
6 Centre-left Alliance (2nd Social Democrat. Incumbent MEP Christel Schaldemose with 65 179 personal votes)
7 DPP (1st DPP. MP Peter Kofod with 119 408 personal votes)
8 Government Alliance (3rd Liberal. Farmer and local councillor Asger Christensen with 31 303 personal votes)
9 Far Left Alliance (1st Red-Green. MP Nikolaj Villumsen with 50 657 personal votes)
10 Centre-left Alliance (3rd Social Democrat. Ph.d fellow Niels Fuglsang with 29 444 personal votes)
11 Government Alliance (1st Conservative. Business woman Pernille Weiss with 80 140 personal votes)
12 Centre-left Alliance (2nd SPP. MP Karsten Hænge wins the seat with 19 687 personal votes, but will not take the seat. Instead the 21-year old economics student Kira Marie Peter-Hansen will become one of the youngest MEPs as she was 3rd with 15 765 personal votes)
13 Green Alliance (2nd Social Liberal. Copenhagen City councillor Karen Melchior with 17 292 personal votes)

14 Government Alliance (4th Liberal. Communicator Linea Søgaard-Linell with 24 145 personal votes)

Social Democrat Marianne Vind was next in line for a seat.
The polls correctly predicted 11 of 14 seats for the parties with DPP, People's Movement against EU and Social Democrats missing seats, which went to the three parties next in line according to polls (SPP, Social Liberals, Liberals). My personal predictions of the candidates went quite well. I was surprised that Liberal lead candidate Morten Løkkegaard managed to beat Søren Gade in personal votes. Also I didn't see the young SPPer coming, but apparently she had strong SPP Youth support, and lead candidate Margrethe Auken won so many votes that third place was quite cheap.

[Diouf]

Dombrovskis re-nominated

http://www.leta.lv/eng/home/important/1341592B-3353-3E94-065F-CA791AA9A646/

[Diouf]

Estonia's government has moved quickly on naming the country's next commissioner, with a proposal from prime minister Juri Ratas to submit Centre Party minister, Kadri Simson, as a candidate approved on Thursday

https://euobserver.com/tickers/145103

Are other commissioners already known?

[Diouf]

Interesting possibility as Verhofstadt replacement. He was previously EPP commissioner, but with his new party, he is in ALDE. Perhaps a more consensus choice for the whole ALDE group than someone strongly left-liberal and federalist as Verhofstadt (who will be more out of the limelight now?)

Romanian ex-prime minister and former EU commissioner Dacian Ciolos has emerged as frontrunner in the race to lead the new liberal alliance in the European Parliament, according to sources in the group. Ciolos's USR-PLUS is the third-largest delegation in the Renew Europe group, with eight MEPs. His bid received a boost after the largest delegation, France, backed him. The vote will take place on Wednesday morning.

https://euobserver.com/tickers/145184

[Diouf]

No Italian in the EPP leadership for the first time. It seems like Silvio Berlusconi is taking up his seat, but it seems more likely that Tajani will take the sole FI topjob. I'm guessing Berlusconi will be there once and a while to make a speech, but probably not as a full-time job.

Once upon a time… there was Italy. However, in the next European legislature Italy will have no representatives in the board of the European People’s Party group (EPP), the most prominent political organism within the European Parliament. For the first time in the history of the elected European Parliament, the Italian delegation will not have the vice presidency of the group. The unprecedented, negative, result is the further demonstration of the political weakness of the founding country of the EU.

The distribution of the top jobs is made by using the D’Hondt method, which is the highest averages method for allocating seats on proportional basis. In simpler words, size matters and Forza Italia is too small to wish for more than one top position.

Silvio Berlusconi’s party has at disposal one and only prominent position. Once it was clear that the Italian delegation couldn’t have more than this – the official candidacy for the vice-presidency of the EPP group was withdrawn. Italians will try to run for a more political and more substantial role – the vice-presidency of the European Parliament or chairing one of the Parliamentary committees.

https://euelectionsitaly.blog/italy-no-seats-epp-group-presidency-it-never-happened-before/

[Diouf]

Dacian Ciolos (Romania) wins Renew Europe (ex ALDE) leadership vote. He beats  Sophie In’t Veld (Netherlands, D66) 65 to 41 votes. The third candidate Fredrick Ferderley (Sweden, Centre) withdrew

And Malik Azmani from VVD is First Deputy Chair. So a win for the national liberals in the group, at least on the surface. Both Renaissance and Ciudadons supported Ciolos, while Lib Dems supported in 't Veld, according to Politico.

Cioloș, who has strong ties to France, had won the endorsement of French President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance delegation as well as Ciudadanos, the Spanish liberal party. He was elected with 64 votes against 42, defeating Dutch MEP Sophie in 't Veld, who had the endorsement of Britain's Liberal Democrats.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ex-romanian-prime-minister-renew-europe/

[Diouf]

Sefcovic re-nominated as commissioner.

https://twitter.com/MarosSefcovic/status/1141308482731290625

It seems likely that Mariya Gabriel could be re-nominated in Bulgaria. She only became a commissioner in 2017, so might get a full term now. She won a MEP seat, but has already declined to take it up, which points towards her staying in the Commission.

[Diouf]

Liberals and Socialists will not back Weber

The Socialist and Liberal groups in the European Parliament will not back conservative Manfred Weber for Commission president, parliamentary leaders said Thursday.

Weber, a German MEP, is the nominee for the EU’s top job of the center-right European People’s Party.

"The liberal and social democratic group heads formally told the EPP leader Manfred Weber that he will not get their votes,” the Greens leader, Philippe Lamberts, said at a news conference.

The Greens have yet to make a decision on Weber, Lamberts said."We need to find agreement on a program, " he said. "Do we have it? Not yet. We don't exclude anyone."

So Weber is rejected by the other parliamentary groups, and there doesn't seem to be a lot of support for him in the European Council either. So the question is whether the EPP will formally change its candidate, and who they will informally bring into play during the Council summit today and tomorrow. And if an EPP candidate, who will not be Weber, is nominated as Commission President, how will the European Parliament react?

https://www.politico.eu/article/liberals-greens-weber/

[Diouf]

As part of the Danish government negotiations, it was agreed that Margrethe Vestager will be appointed to another term as commissioner. Obviously a Danish government would always give her support if she could be named President of the Commission, but it was much less clear that she would be reappointed to another term in other circumstances. There have been previously been very popular commissioners , which have not been reappointed. Social Liberals have had a strong wish for reappointment, which they got through in the negotiations.

[Diouf]

The EU share of female MEPs is now up to 40% in total (higher than the 25% share in the US Senate or 23% in the US House):

I mean, regarding this point it is worth noting that pretty much all EU member states (minus Ireland and Malta?) use party lists in order to elect their MEPs.

I am not sure how widespread this is, but at least here party lists have quotas (so you need at least 2 women and 3 men or viceversa in every group of 5 consecutive candidates so getting a mostly balanced parliament is not hard.

Not sure how accurate it is, but I remember some study or analysis finding out that women tend to do much better in parliamentary systems than presidential ones. There is a reason why (for example) the UK elected Thatcher all the way in 1979 while France or the US have not elected a female president (though interestingly France did elect a female PM once)

Several countries have some kind of preferential voting. In some places, it is strictly open lists where only personal votes matter. In other places, you need to get a certain quota to break open the lists. But open lists should give fairly equal representation, as long as the parties run a fairly equal share of candidates.
The horrible FPTP system will tend to make it harder as there are strong incumbency effects, which is why I think the Thatcher example is more of a coincidence than a pattern. There were only 3% women in the British parliament in 1979, when the share was e.g. 23.5% in Denmark. You could argue that it would be slightly easier for someone to vote for their local male parliamentary candidate who would make Thatcher PM rather than voting directly for a woman as president, but I don't really think that difference matters a lot when party leaders are as prominent as they are in UK.

[Diouf]

But open lists should give fairly equal representation, as long as the parties run a fairly equal share of candidates.

Which they often don't do:

Until Kurz rode in and promised gender equality in the ÖVP (which still has not happened after the 2017 federal election, but in the 2019 EU election => the ÖVP-delegation is now majority female), the ÖVP and other parties would simply rank a lot of males to the first 10 or so electable spots, despite a lot of qualified women wanting to run. Mostly it had to do with incumbent men not willing to give up their seats in parliament which they occupied for the past 20 years or so ...

I think the Austrian example is not open lists, but closed lists (which can be broken by a large personal vote)? Otherwise it doesn't really make sense to talk about electable spots, as all spots are in principle equally electable on an open list. So yes, in closed list systems like this, the party leadership decides the most, while in open lists there is a big "responsibility" at the voters if the lists are fairly equal, and normally they would vote in a fairly equal share of women.

[Diouf]

Tusk is asking the countries to name a few Green commissioners. "I will appeal to all my partners to involve the Greens in the nominations, even though there is still no European Council leader from this party. I am fully confident that cooperation with the Greens and their presence in the EU decision-making bodies will benefit not only the governing coalition, but Europe as a whole.”
I'm not exactly sure how the procedure for naming the commissioner is in Lithuania, but with a government led by Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union, it would be logical if they named a Green commissioner. Sweden, Finland and Luxembourg also have Greens in government, although Finland has already nominated a Social Democrat. There are also Greens in the French government (and perhaps in Belgium next?). Climate and Environment commissioners would be obvious for Green representatives.

Other rumours about commissioner roles.
"Conte gets in exchange for the support to the package a vice presidency of the Commission and the competition portfolio. The Italian Commissioner will be appointed by right-wing party Lega. “They got a lot of valuable political figures. I don’t see any difficulty to find the best person for the job”.
Sefcovic should get a vice-presidency as well. Apparently Merkel told Tspiras that Greece could keep the migration Commissioner, but hopefully there will be a change in government soon, so that doesn't happen. Nea Demokratia should be more interested in Energy portfolios. Croatia wants Regional Policy, Slovenia looking for Enlargement, Czechia wants Trade or Internal Market. The most concrete is Bulgaria wanting to re-nominate Mariya Gabriel, and her to stay as Digital Commissioner.

https://omeuropa.se/eu-topparna-har-en-tom-stol-for-de-grona-svenskt-dromlage-for-isabella-for-brussels/

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/member-states-eye-eu-commission-portfolios/

[Diouf]

Among the Danish MEPs, DPP (1), SPP (2), Red-Greens Alliance (1) vote against her. Conservatives (1), Social Liberals (2), Social Democrats(3) vote for her. Liberals split with Morten Løkkegaard and Asger Christensen voting in favour, while the more Eurosceptic Søren Gade votes blank.

[Diouf]

Proposed new Commission named Tuesday

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1169551486289887233

[Diouf]

The nominations for the new Commission. The three executive vice-presidents keep a DG in addition to their leadership position to ensure they have the necessary influence. Greece gets the migration portfolio again. Hungary gets enlargement, but I guess he's one of those candidates the EP will go after hard. Unfortunately, a Luxembourg socialist as employment commissioner, which probably means that Thyssen's aggressive line will be continued, which will be in unpopular in Northern European welfare states.