Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Lumine]

A few notes on the future to end the day:

-Government parties are due to meet with the President tomorrow, to discuss their collective stance (and possibly to reflect on what just happened). The President is also due to meet with the Presidents of the Senate (Elizalde -PS) and Chamber of Deputies (Soto - PPD) to address how to move forward.

-Chile Vamos (UDI, RN and Evopoli) will also meet tomorrow to discuss the results and their future joint position on the process.

-A cabinet reshuffle is coming this week, perhaps early on. President Boric is likely to be forced to remove key ministers Izkia Siches (Interior) and Giorgio Jackson (SEGPRES) due to previous mistakes and the latter becoming toxic to Congress - his job being precisely to coordinate between La Moneda and Congress -, and an undetermined number of ministers perceived to be vulnerable are also likely to go. Siches and Jackson are very important to Boric - symbolically for Siches, a historical friendship with Jackson - so the rumor is that they're likely to be shuffled into different roles (possible Health for Siches, Social Development for Jackson).

-After all of this is done, the opposition is then due to meet with the President as talks move forward.

-Rumor has it that private talks are heading towards a new Constitutional Convention, elected under different rules and with a shorter mandate (so as to end the process around this time next year). I think it's mentioned before, but such a Convention is likely to restrict joint lists for independent candidates, possibly elect delegates by regional - or a national - districts, perhaps with a party-list system. The opposition appears likely to retain gender parity and a different scheme for indigenous seats (extra seats depending on turnout rather than total population). Changing the rules from the previous one is likely to encounter heavy resistance from some in the left, so we'll see.

So... yeah. This isn't over, the process continues, and it is likely that the country could well be voting on a different new text in 2023. Hopefully the same mistakes - and there were many - will not be made this time.

[Lumine]

Political talks and meetings ongoing, the Cabinet reshuffle is expected for tomorrow. Speculation is directed at the entry of more center-left figures within the Cabinet and particularly some of key ministries, with former minister and former Santiago mayor Carolina Tohá (PPD) thought to be in line for either Interior or SEGPRES. Tohá does have skeletons in her closet, but for what it's worth, she's both competent and a decent communication, and would make a vast improvement over the incumbent ministers.

There have been some ugly takes since yesterday, what with a number of Approve personalities going hard on the "fake news" angle as the main explanation for defeat - getting serious flashbacks to a number of foreign elections and the reaction to it - and some people in social media, rather regrettably, belittling voters or lashing out at them for their choice. We saw it back in 2017 when Piñera won - feels like a lifetime ago - but this time it feels more visceral. Others, I've felt, have been far more solid in their analysis and/or willing to acknowledge some of the mistakes made. Ultimately, it is an undeniable emotional result for both camps, even if the emotions in play are... vastly different.

I have my doubts that the same mistakes will not be made, Lumine. The result was a massive blow for Approve, in fact, the 62% of reject was closer to a 2/3 majority than Approve actually winning by a hair. This is just my opinion, feel free to discuss it and disagree with it, but I believe that the best course of action would be to pick up the 1980 constitution and initiate a complete and total makeover of it. Initiating a new Convention would create divisions, discussions that have nothing to do with the Constitution itself and create noise that would led, probably, to the same mistakes made that culminated in this result. Take a cue from my country: our original 1976 constitution was an ideological mess, but during the 80's, basically all of the ideological rhetoric was removed, tons of articles and limitations were changed/removed that completely changed the tone of the original text.

It's certainly possible that errors are made again if either side goes about the process with the same arrogance - only this time coming from the right, or from whoever wins a constituent election -, but do I feel the whole experience of this process ending up in political failure (and the shock of it, for not long ago Reject even winning was seen as an unrealistic fantasy) has instilled a sense in caution in some key players and, perhaps more importantly, within the electorate itself.

The 1980 Constitution has been reformed so many times that - some frustrations in the left notwithstanding - it really is a significantly different and far more democratic document than what Jaime Guzman (its main ideologue) envisioned. What is undeniable, however, is that it was a Constitution imposed within a dictatorship through fraud in an unfair plebiscite, and that so-called "original sin" is serious enough to instill a firm perception of illegitimacy that would not go away even if you just had Congress reform, rewrite and replace the entire text.

I see where you're coming from, I think it's a valuable experience - lord knows we ought to start considering valuable precedent, including Spain as well - and I have no doubt that it would be a far more practical alternative, but the desire for a new Constitution is genuine and, for the sake of its future legitimacy, I think it's necessary to have a sufficient open process even at the risk of making those same mistakes. On a personal note, it's also why I voted Approve the first time (the 2020 Plebiscite) despite quite liking the current Constitution, we need to address the legitimacy question for good and a "new text" looked and still looks like the best road to take.

[Lumine]

Cabinet reshuffle time!

-Izkia Siches sacked, doesn't get Health as a consolation prize (many congressmen from Apruebo Dignidad and Socialismo Democratico actually spoke against this possibility, it seems their pressure worked).

-Giorgio Jackson shuffled to Social Development, left vacant since Jeannette Vega (PPD) resigned over the Llaitul scandal.

-Health, Science and Mining ministers also sacked, the appointments don't look particularly interesting.

-They had to improvise at the last moment (this also happened to Piñera) due to backlash, as the original design had Interior Vice Minister Monsalve (PS) promoted to SEGPRES, replaced by Nicolás Cataldo (PC). Cataldo had made a number of controversial - in light of his new role - comments on social media, and the prospect of a Communist in charge of policing made some people... nervous, shall we say. They were forced to drop him, and thus Monsalve stayed in place.

-Carolina Tohá as previously briefed, becomes Interior Minister. In light of Monsalve having to stay in place, Ana Lya Uriarte (Bachelet's former Chief of Staff, enforcer and uber loyalist) rises to SEGPRES. It's an odd announcement in light of her new responsibilities, as some congressmen - with whom she'll have to deal on a daily basis - have issues with her. Still, you can't say Tohá and Uriarte are not competent. Thus the PPD (Tohá) and PS (Uriarte) are now represented in the so-called "political committee" of high ranking ministers, signaling the promised ascendance of the Socialismo Democratico center-left.

[Lumine]

RN won't assist to meeting with government to talk about the continuation of the constituent process. Words cannot describe how shocked I am, shocked I'm telling you.

They're all apparently on their way now (RN, UDI, Evopoli), but yes, it would have been a bad sign had they not gone. I do concede that Chahuan - as RN President - has a history of (rather childlish) tantrums, so I have to imagine the others had to drag him.

[Lumine]

BTW, I'm going to start a new thread to cover political developments and hopefully new constituent elections, especially because this one already has like 5 elections in it and it will be a hassle for people in the future that want to search threads for those elections.

Don't know whether to create it in this board or in International General Discussion, does anyone have an opinion about that?

I'd advise the International General Discussion, it's more suitable given the variety of non-electoral topics likely to show up.

Also, Felipe Delpin just resigned as Party Chairman of the DC. He and his allies rather overplayed their hand by driving the party so stridently towards Approve - even trying to expel pro-Reject personalities, the same who were vindicated by Sunday's result -, so it seems the party is headed for quite a fascinating internal debate.