China's Authoritarianism Will Ensure It Won't Rise Any Further as a World Superpower

[Lumine]

I find it more wishful thinking than anything. Not saying some predictions are impossible - it may well be that the next generation of Chinese leadership isn't up to the task of running the surveillance state -, but as Antonio noted it's not like there's any evidence there.

There's also some very questionable notions regarding how foreign countries should react. There clearly is a - depressing - limit as to far much democratic nations can go in offering support (even moral support) to places like Hong Kong, but the idea that future democratization will be made easier by giving more "gentle" treatment to the CCP (based on the idea that it is the entity that could enact democracy) is, shall we say, a bit too naive when it comes to historical evidence and/or valuable examples.

I distinctly recall reading somewhere that the present Chinese leadership spent significant time analyzing and debating the fall of the Soviet Union, and the conclusion they apparently drew was that being "soft" on a number of political issues allowed the USSR to collapse and the country to lose its international power and influence. And that's perfectly consistent with the CCP's successful attempts at tightening their grip, made easier by the disturbing possibilities created by technology. They're not even the only ones who have "learnt" that lesson, particularly if you consider the amount of current autocratic leaders who seem to have survived against the odds by virtue of never yielding an inch and resisting to the bitter end (Assad, Maduro, etc.).

It may well be that totalitarian or authoritarian regimes with an expansive surveillance state prove impossible to sustain in the long term beyond a number of decades (an optimistic view of contemporary and near-future history), but it may well be that the "new", technological versions of them prove impossible to dislodge barring seismic events as opposed to gradual societal change. On the whole, I don't see reasons to be optimistic about the present course of events in China or hopeful about eventual democratic change (much less through the willing acceptance of the CCP), though I'm willing to admit it could be a hell of a lot worse. In a way, it is fortunate that China's current pragmatism and particular interests don't lend themselves well to an ideological concept of hegemony as opposed to a practical one.