Is Venezuela heading to civil war?

[Lumine]

Not yet. That would require substantial military defections into the Guaido camp and not just a handful of officer not in key positions of power, and even then it gets tricky accounting for the thousands of pro-Maduro militias and paramilitary groups armed and trained by the government.

Unless something dramatically shifts the current balance of power - like the blocking of the attempt to introduce the aid getting out of control and resulting in large scale military revolts against the regime, which is unlikely - the prospect of a civil war appears dubious, and even then would likely not last very long account for Maduro's advantage in terms of the military.

[Lumine]

After the fiasco of the other day - and the spectacle of the military burning down the trucks with humanitarian aid - it seems increasingly unlikely after the weekend.