Chilean Presidential Election 2013 - Doomsday is here!

[Lumine]

Post-Primary: Or, how the campaign got insane:

July 1 - July 17: The aftermath of the primary brought good and bad results. Good for Bachelet, who proved her strength, good for Velasco, who proved his leadership, and good for Longueira, who defeated RN. Gomez, Orrego and Allamand were humiliated, and while the first two merely joined Bachelet's forces and decided to face defeat with dignity, Allamand decided to go for the Senate, destroying what was left of his reputation and the respect I had for him (while leaving Catalina Parot, his supporter, without the opportunity to go for that same seat).

Tomas Jocelyn-Holt had 35.000 signatures and he needed 2.000 more, Franco Parisi had 60.000 signatures, Roxana Miranda, Marcel Claude and Marco Enriquez-Ominami were on the ballot and other candidates like Alfredo Sfeir, Eduardo Diaz and Gustavo Ruz struggled to get enough signatures. Longueira managed to join RN and UDI to put up a fight, and Bachelet prepared her forces.

At the same time, RN and the Concertacion managed to put together an agreement to modify up the Binomial system and eliminate some of the unfair parts of it. UDI and the Government, left aside, decided to create their own plan (a very rushed and useless proposal).

It was the fight of Longueira and a bunch of underdogs v. Bachelet.

But Longueira dropped out, today... He had depression, and his health was deteriorating quickly. Therefore, the Coalicion is in ruins, there are no available candidates, and the election is for all purposes over, since Bachelet's victory is now inevitable. Just like the 1988 Democratic Primaries, we have "Michelle Bachelet and the seven/eight dwarfs", and she is not going down in flames like Gary Hart.

So screw the coalition, I'm sick of the bickering and the hegemony of UDI and the far right, I will be voting independent in this election.

[Lumine]

Does the right will be allowed to have a replacement candidate?

Yes, they have until August 19th, and the parties have the right to choose a joint candidate or two separate candidates for the first round. But the problem is that they lack options. The have the defeated candidates, but Golborne said no and Allamand lost his credibility and self-confidence. They also have two minor options with former Minister Felipe Kast (leader of Evolucion Politica, a new movement from the liberal right) and Mayor Manuel Jose Ossandon (from RN, with low name recognition but also quite charismatic), and they could bring up the last big candidate they have left: Minister and Former Senator Evelyn Matthei, but even she has a lot of weaknesses.

[Lumine]

Does the right will be allowed to have a replacement candidate?

Yes, they have until August 19th, and the parties have the right to choose a joint candidate or two separate candidates for the first round. But the problem is that they lack options. The have the defeated candidates, but Golborne said no and Allamand lost his credibility and self-confidence. They also have two minor options with former Minister Felipe Kast (leader of Evolucion Politica, a new movement from the liberal right) and Mayor Manuel Jose Ossandon (from RN, with low name recognition but also quite charismatic), and they could bring up the last big candidate they have left: Minister and Former Senator Evelyn Matthei, but even she has a lot of weaknesses.

So, the question is whether Bachelet wins by 1st or 2nd round, then?

No, I think the question is which dwarf ends up second and will that dwarf even cross 10%...

That depends on the sacrificial lamb the Coalicion sends. You see, Bachelet will win the second round, but if turnout doesn't go as expected she might end up short of 50% (45% would be the minimun I see her winning), so that would be the best case scenario for the Coalicion (the problem is that they have no candidates, since Matthei and Allamand are eliminated by law).

Post-Primary: Or, how the campaign got insane:

At the same time, RN and the Concertacion managed to put together an agreement to modify up the Binomial system and eliminate some of the unfair parts of it. UDI and the Government, left aside, decided to create their own plan (a very rushed and useless proposal).

So screw the coalition, I'm sick of the bickering and the hegemony of UDI and the far right, I will be voting independent in this election.

It's great that RN supports a reform of the Binomial system but, do you think it's possible to pass legislation in time for the next elections? From what I read in the press, I got the impression that it's unlikely.

Also, if you are going to root for an independent, which would be your choice? Parisi perhaps?, Jocelyn-Holt? Marcel Claude Reyes? It would be interesting to know their pros and cons from your perspective.

I think (it's just an speculation) that any candidate supported by the right would have insured an important percentage of vote, do not know if 1/4 or 1/3. More than 10 % in any case... unless some independent candidate was capable of assembling an important support around him/her, enough to be perceived as a viable alternative. What do you think?

Well, discussions should end before Friday and they should hold a vote next week, but in my opinion it is too late for this to work in the current elections (which means we are going to have to wait four years, and idea I personally hate, I feel this country should have legislative midterms).

Going with the independents (even the ones without a change to go to the first round), and rating them from right to left, here's what I think so far:

Eduardo Diaz Herrera: Regionalist from the South, former supporter of Pinochet. UDI might be tempted, but he is boring, has no money, no support and nobody knows him.

Franco Parisi: He is quite similar to former candidate Francisco Javier ("Fra-Fra") Errazuriz (without the forced labor), and he believes that the solutions to our country are in the markets. He's a clueless and populist neoliberal (and I refuse to vote for him), but he is quite popular. The right would be willing to support him, but he said clearly that he won't accept the official support of any political party.

Tomas Jocelyn-Holt: Former Deputy and former member of the DC, he is my tentative choice for President. Liberal and progressive, but with a moderated speech, has both experience and skills. Problem? He has no money, he is quite arrogant and he dislikes the right, so I highly doubt that even the Liberal wing of RN (which I support) would consider endorsing him.

Marcel Claude: Ugh. He talks like a chilean communist, acts like a chilean communist, and has the beliefs of a chilean communist. Seriously, he is the PC's second choice (considering that they half heartedly endorsed Bachelet), and while the guy is intelligent and competent, I would vote for Parisi or Bachelet before him.

Alfredo Sfeir: The ecologist. He is my third choice, behind Jocelyn-Holt and a competent Coalicion candidate (if and only if they manage to find one). Perhaps too liberal for my taste, but I can't oppose candidates who are truly concerned about the environment, and he is. Obviously he has no chance, but a 1993 candidate with his same views, Manfred Max Neef, managed to get 5% of the vote, so he is capable of winning a similar percentage of votes.

Now, the problem with the right is that this is not 1993 anymore, when they had a replacement compromise candidate with Senator Arturo Alessandri Besa (24% of the first round vote). We are facing 1964: In that election, we had three candidates: Salvador Allende (PS - left), Eduardo Frei Montalva (DC - center) and Julio Duran (PR - center-right). Allende looked set to win the election, Duran's campaign collapsed and the right had no choice but to back Frei, who managed to win the election. A the same time, the right went down from 30% of the parliamentary vote from 12%, and they were almost exterminated.

The Coalicion has three ways of solving the dilemma:

-Put a replacement with no change, and focus on the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies (1993 style)
-No candidates, unofficial backing of Parisi (1964 style)
-Send two candidates (one from RN and one from UDI), in an attempt to maximize turnout (2005-2006 style).

This is a truly unprecedented scenario, so the parties are in chaos and we won't have a new candidate today or tomorrow, this will take time. They could also ditch previous scenarios and go with a new formula, but I can't think of anything that might work. Their force is measured between 20 and 35% of the vote, so they have become the ultimate wildcard here.

[Lumine]

There is no way they endorse Parisi, that would mean a disaster in congressional elections.

They won't, but I guess the possibility of another 1964 was there.

Well, it's Matthei. Couldn't be more straightforward: another referendum on Pinochet.

Two daughters of Air Force Generals facing one to another. Matthei's father was Air Force Academy commander when Bachelet's father was imprisioned there.

We have a curious coincidence with that (after all, Michelle Bachelet and Evelyn Matthei know each other since there were girls), but to say that this is a referendum of Pinochet is ridiculous. Everybody here (and includes most of the UDI) knows that even if you are a Pinochet supporter you will lose if that's your only campaign issue.

You see, only two Presidential candidates have been open supporters of Pinochet (Jose Piñera in 1993 with 6% of the vote and Arturo Frei Bolivar in 1999, with 0,3% of the vote), and all of the mainstream right wing candidates denounced him in a way or another (Alessandri, Lavin and Piñera). And while Matthei supports a part of the Pinochet Legacy, she is not one of the UDI hardliners like Senator Jovino Novoa, Deputy Ivan Moreira or Pablo Longueira.

The real issue here is whether the right will unite behind Matthei. UDI decided to play against the Coalicion rules and they proclaimed Matthei as the "de facto" candidate for the center right, and RN is not willing to be the UDI's lackey, not after Piñera surrendered, the liberal right was strangled in the cradle and Allamand was humiliated. There has been some talk of holding a convention or a closed primary, but RN will not accept her just like that. They have no candidates (Cruz-Coke, Ossandon and Lily Perez are too valuable to send them to a slaughter house), but they are not happy at all with this.

Still, and despite the fact that I hate how UDI has hijacked the President, the government and that they killed the liberal right that I used to admire, Matthei is the only UDI I would vote for. She was part of RN in the past, after all, and she supports civil unions as far as I'm concerned, so I think she is quite reasonable. My personal choice here would be the RN Manuel Jose Ossandon, since he's one of the last voices of the liberal right (and has the reputation of hating the right wing Establishment ), but he's too valuable as a Senate candidate right now.

[Lumine]

Oh, and a small update of the current ballot for the first round:

Qualified Candidates:

Former President Michelle Bachelet (Partido Socialista, Partido Por la Democracia, Democracia Cristiana, Partido Radical Social Democrata, Izquierda Cristiana, Partido Comunista, Movimiento Amplio Social)
Former Minister Evelyn Matthei (Union Democrata Independiente, ¿Renovacion Nacional?)
Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (Partido Progresista, Partido Liberal de Chile)
Economist Marcel Claude (Partido Humanista, Izquierda Unida)
Economist Franco Parisi (Independent)
Activist Roxana Miranda (Partido Igualdad)
Mr. Ricardo Israel (Partido Regionalista Independente, announced just today)

Candidates who still lack enough signatures:

Economist Alfredo Sfeir Younis (Partido Ecologista)
Former Deputy Tomas Jocelyn-Holt (Independent)
Former Mayor Eduardo Diaz Herrera (Independent)
Mr. Gustavo Ruz Zañartu (Independent)

The amount of candidates is almost unbelievable, six was the biggest amount we had (1993 and 1999), and if Sfeir and Jocelyn-Holt qualify (Ruz and Diaz won't), we might have nine candidates, ten if RN wants of have one. It's truly unique.

[Lumine]

The question is not, whether Everlyn Matthei supports Pinochet or the coup (still less whether she makes it the only campaign issue - she can´t be that stupid). The question, rather, is, whether it is going to be possible to vote for a Matthei against a Batchelet in this election, without declaring your own, de facto, support for the Pinochet and the coup. Symbols matter, you know.

They do, but this election is different to the others in some ways. While there are vocal minorities that have an actual hatred for the other side (and not just the usual mutual contempt, many people hate Bachelet and many people hate the entire right), I believe that most people are tired to the whole "Yes-No politics" (which go as far as the 1988 plebiscite), and that as symbolic as it might be to the vocal minority, there are more pressing matters that will decide the vote for the majority that has to be motivated to vote.

Finally, I've finished a map of the 2009-2010 Presidential Election. Vote percentages for the 1st round and margins for the 2nd round.

That's awesome! A great map, I have to admit, it easily shows how Ominami damaged Frei in the First Round (even beating him and Piñera in some of the Concertacion northern strongholds), but at the same time it shows the usual strongholds for both the Concertacion and the Alianza/Coalicion in the second round, that is, the Concertacion usually wins the north, the Coalicion/Alianza the south, and the center and Santiago are the tossups to win.

Oh, in other news:

-Andres Allamand decided not to jump on the race again, citing responsibility, but some RN members (headed by Manuel Jose Ossandon) have accused UDI of putting a "veto" on Allamand. Remaining options are Lily Perez, Luciano Cruz-Coke and Francisco Chahuan, but none of the are interested.
-Michelle Bachelet stops his campaign to spend two weeks in vacation in New York City. Private sources claim that she believes the race is won (and I don't blame her at all).
-Independent candidates face an upsurge in and attention: Tomas Jocelyn Holt has 36.000 signatures and Eduardo Diaz has 28.000 (a real miracle, I have no idea how he managed to do that without money, online campaigning or even organization), while Gustavo Ruz's signature number is unknown.

[Lumine]

Fascinating map, it manages to give a very different view of what happened in the 2005 2nd round by portraying major Bachelet landslides. The argument that the PC helps the Concertacion win the second round was used in both 2000 and 2005, and while that was true in Ricardo Lagos's victory, Bachelet managed to trounce Piñera using both Hirsch's left wing vote and (I believe) the vote of women (in this case, middle class women who usually vote DC but have a tendency to vote for the right when the Concertacion candidate is too left wing).

Piñera managed to hold the line on the South and the upper part of the North thanks to the support of the minor regionalist parties, but heavy losses in the center of the country ended up increasing his margin of defeat (which was expected to be 4-5% instead of 7%).

[Lumine]

Update Number One: The Current Field:

I decided to wait to see how the first part of the campaign went, at least until the first debate, and right now we have 19 days until the first round is over. Last time I was covering this, Matthei was the Coalicion's new hope, Bachelet was cruising to victory and the independent candidates were struggling to get on the ballot. By Mid-August, the signature day arrived, and nine candidates managed to get there.

Qualified Candidates:

Former President Michelle Bachelet (Concertacion, renamed "Nueva Mayoria)
Former Minister Evelyn Matthei (Coalicion)
Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO-PL)
Economist Marcel Claude (PH-Ind - Had the 20.000 signatures and the support of one party)
Economist Franco Parisi (Ind. - More than 50.000 signatures)
Activist Roxana Miranda (PI)
Mr. Ricardo Israel (PRI)
Economist Alfredo Sfeir Younis (PE)
Former Deputy Tomas Jocelyn-Holt (Ind. - Got 36.000 signatures, just about enough)

Former Mayor Eduardo Diaz Herrera (right-wing) and Mr. Gustavo Ruz Zañartu (far-left) failed to get enough signatures, having between 26.000 and 28.000 each (you needed 35.000).

There, the campaign was given the get go while other candidates tried to create strong lists of candidates for the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. While the Concertacion/Nueva Mayoria managed to get a coherent list (Despite troubles with a lack of primaries and the DC-PC feud), the Coalicion collapsed. One of the Senate candidates, Former Minister and Actor Luciano Cruz Coke, was left outside (he broke a law that prevents Ministers from going to that election if the didn't resign in December, and he did so in May.), and Andres Allamand and Manuel Jose Ossandon (the best leaders the party has) are going to have a bitter fight against the UDI powerhouses of Laurence Golborne (now a Senate candidate) and defeated but still popular Mayor Pablo Zalaquett.

Matthei then tried an aggressive style of campaign, and failed miserably. Bachelet played the statesman card, RN left Matthei alone, Piñera gave her a half-hearted endorsement, and so forth, so forth. But the race has been pretty unstable for a reason nobody predicted.

The 1973 coup.

[Lumine]

Update Number Two: Fear and Loathing in Chile:

The Nueva Mayoria tried a different approach this year when it came to the 40th anniversary of Allende's death, and so did Sebastian Piñera. President Piñera announced that he wanted a big public event with all Former Presidents and Presidential Candidates to remember the date together and avoid more bitter fighting. In response, the Nueva Mayoria created their own public event, and all Former Presidents and Presidential Candidates (except Matthei, Sfeir and Israel) refused Piñera, joining Bachelet's event, which was a resounding success.

Then, when it was discovered that the Director of SERVEL, Former General and Commander in Chief Juan Emilio Cheyre (one of the most respected military figures here) had a slight connection to an event in 1973 (as a minor officer, he was tasked with delivering a child whose parents were executed to the Church as "anonymous"), he was forced to resign due to public pressure. Reacting quickly, Matthei was ready to defend her father and her lack of involvement in 1973 (she was 20 years old), but nobody took her seriously.

September 18th is our independence date, and so the celebrations here served to calm down the controversy of Allende and Pinochet's legacy. But when the celebration was over, several right-wing figures headed by businessman Augusto Edwards (now accused of being one of the leading CIA contacts in Operation Mockingbird) accused DC of asking for a coup in 1973 (true), which the DC denied, trying to re-write history to show they were always supportive of Allende (blatantly false).

Bachelet then came under fire from all sides for not being progressive enough and for being incredibly vague on her proposals (she refused to come to debates), so she got tired and she refused to involve herself in the whole 1973 thing (a great move).

And then came the event. The ten highest ranking military officers condemned for breaking human rights (including the infamous Manuel Contreras, responsible of dozens of executions and systematic torture) were being held in Cordillera, a special jail with a lot of benefits for the inmates (TV, sports, free time, weekend passes, internet), so many activists within the left asked for Cordillera to be closed. President Piñera, who is fed up with UDI, is now pursuing a statesman strategy to overcome ridicule and to return in full force in 2018, so he took everybody by surprise: he closed Cordillera two days ago, shocking his allies.

Piñera voted No and he wanted to be DC in 1988, so it shouldn't be surprising, but UDI is screaming "Treason! Treason!" and the left is like: Oh.... Well, it's still not enough."

And today, retired General Odlanier Mena, former head of CNI and the nemesis of Manuel Contreras committed suicide, trying to stop the closure in a desperate efforts (he was very ill and close to death, so he decided to go out like that to make a statement).

Will Piñera close Cordillera? Will Matthei finally collapse? Will Bachelet keep sinking in the polls?

[Lumine]

Oh, and the final thing here: Polls. They are scarse, unreliable and not very believable, but here they go:

Two polls, released on September 16th and September 23rd:

Bachelet: 31% and 30,9%
Matthei: 20% and 18,5%
Parisi: 13% and 11,4%
Ominami: 9% and 5%
Claude: 7% and 3,1%
Sfeir: 2% and 0,5%
Miranda: 1% and 0,2%
Israel: 1% and 0%
Jocelyn-Holt: 2% and 0,1%
Doesn't know: 15% and 30%

[Lumine]

Any chance Parisi could make the second round and if so would he do better or worse against Bachelet than Matthei?

Yes, it is a slim chance considering the right always gets more than 25%, but this election depends on turnout, and Parisi is very good at that. He has a quite loyal following, and he might (just might) defeat Matthei and take on Bachelet in the second round. I can't find the polls right now, but his favorability raitings are high (just like Ominami), he could easily get the right wing vote and independents prefer him. He is not going to defeat Bachelet, but he would make it closer, just like with Ominami.

If I had to predict:

Bachelet: 55-65% - Matthei: 35-45% (if Matthei does not collapse)
Bachelet: 50-55% - Parisi: 40-45%
Bachelet: 50-60% - Ominami: 40-50% (that one depends on turnout and the right backing him to stop Bachelet)

[Lumine]

What is the "Allendist Socialism (movement)" and why is it backing Ominami?

A small political party that tries (very hard) to keep Allende's memory alive, it serves as a vehicle of the disenchanted left that hates the Concertation/Nueva Mayoria for being too centrist for their taste (similar to progressives and the current Democratic Party in the US). They usually back the Communist candidate, but this time they had few options:

Matthei, Parisi, Jocelyn-Holt and Israel are too right wing for them, Bachelet is a non starter (even if the communists back her), Sfeir is unpredictable, Claude was a DC back in 1973 (and hated Allende then, now he seems to adore the former President), and the only ones left are Roxana Miranda and Ominami. Miranda is deeply unpopular and Ominami, while a Social Democrat at heart, is the natural son of a hero of the Chilean left (Miguel Enriquez), he dislikes Bachelet and he is rising on the polls. Bingo!

[Lumine]

Ah, I see. How has the Nueva Mayoría brought in the PCCh, but left the Allendists behind?

Well, Bachelet wanted both of them in (a Left and Center Left Grand Coalition), but while the Communists decided that they wanted to trust Bachelet and use the opportunity to increase their strength on the Senate and Chamber of Deputies (joining the Nueva Mayoria was the only way, since with a divided left they would  lose most of their current seats), the Allendists decided that they were not going to win anyway and they chose to stick to their main rule: "No Concertacion, no Bachelet."

[Lumine]

Claude was a DC back in 1973 (and hated Allende then, now he seems to adore the former President)

But he was only 16 years old in 1973. It is strange that his then political position is so well known.

Oh, not here, the side you backed in 1973 if you were older than 10 years old is an issue, and Claude has denied it time after time. The other problem is that according to witnesses it wasn't passive support, it has been said repeteadly that the guy went to Anti-Allende rallies, and he spent a great part of his time saying to classmates and friends that the military had to step in to destroy the "communist threat". True or false, that hurts him.

[Lumine]

Wow, I forgot to update this during October... Well, here we go!

Update: Eleven Days before Doom:

Essentially, Evelyn Matthei started October with a heavy heart. She had sustained a lot of damage in September, and Parisi was getting closer. Thus, she went with her first weapon: her ideas for Chile. Alas, she showed that she had little concrete proposals and she mistreated RN, further alienating them and creating enemies within UDI. Then she went to the attack and blasted Parisi for not playing his employees when he was in charge of a couple schools. And Alas, most people got behind Parisi (despite the fact that he is a populist demagogue), and Matthei finished her collapse. I don't buy the 14% poll, but she is likely between 20 and 25% now, which is a disaster.

Bachelet ignored all the other candidates and played wise candidate, and it payed off, since she managed to bring new life to the Concertacion. Roxana Miranda, Tomas Jocelyn Holt and Ricardo Israel where mostly ignored (despite Jocelyn Holt falling off his bike and then using that as the campaign slogan and Miranda playing class warfare), Marcel Claude ran a successful campaign to unite the left and the ones who truly won something were Ominami and Sfeir. Ominami knows he is not going to win this one, but he grew and he showed himself as a respectable politician, and he has excellent chances to win in 2018. Sfeir, the ecologist, refused to attack the rest of the candidates, and he had great interviews in TV. He is now perceived as reasonable gentleman who actually wants the best for the country, and he might give a surprise.

All in all, all candidates have something to do, something to avoid and something to target. The results are not likely to mirror the polls, but we can make reasonable assumptions:

The Frontrunner:

Bachelet: From 35 to 50%. Unlikely to win a first round (I think), she needs to continue her current style of low-profile and shaking hands. She wins the second round without any trouble, but Ominami and Parisi could make it close.

Second Round Possibilities:

Matthei: From 20 to 30%. Collapsing more and more, she lost RN. Her last chance is to win UDI back and get enough turnout to get to the second round, where she loses in a landslide.
Parisi: The big suprise, this man is already surpassing Matthei thanks to the apparent support of the RN base, many disenchanted people and many centrists. He has a chance to get to the second round, and there his performance becomes unpredictable. UDI will vote for him, but will he get enough independents?
Ominami: Unlikely to surpass Parisi, his success has to be considered in terms of image and public perception, not votes like the last times. Believe it or not, he is in for the long run.

Possible Surprises:

Marcel Claude: After running a creative campaign that successfully targeted the voters that usually vote Communist-Humanist (Juntos Podemos Mas), he might break the 5% votes that candidates like him usually get. If he is extremely lucky, 7 to 10%.
Alfredo Sfeir: The ecologist that won the hearts (and a big part of the minds) of most Chileans by showing that ecologist candidates can be reasonable and they can achieve their objectives. Will he break 5%? That is unpredictable.

Who? I didn't know he/she was a candidate:

Ricardo Israel: Having little to no money and after a campaign centered on social values (anti-abortion and anti gay marriage), Israel struggles to win voters back. Truth be told, he and his party wanted to back Parisi, but he refused to keep his independent profile. Thus, Israel fights a truly useless fight.

Tomas Jocelyn-Holt: Despite his tendency to be arrogant and his relentless attacks on other candidates, Jocelyn-Holt is in no doubt intelligent and capable, and he would make a decent President (despite the fact that he is no friend of the right, I'm voting for him). But he is largely ignored, and he fails to get 1% in the polls.

Roxana Miranda: She is... a special case. No more than 1%, sure, but it's hard to say whether she failed or not. She said what she wanted to say, and she threw a good amount of attacks to the "establishment", so she wasn't really aiming at electoral success.

[Lumine]

Since the moment Bachellet decided to be a candidate, the election turned to be irrelevant.

She made a lot of mistakes (like Transantiago or the destruction of Santiago's public transport system) but at the end her mandate was quite pleasant.

Concerning Allende or Pinochet, Chileans don't give a shInk about it, and the majority of them consider both characters more grey than black and white.

PS: Matthei can only be popular in the most reactionary parts of society.

PS2: Funny to see Ominami in the fourth place.

PS3: If Bachellet doesn't win in the first round, well, all candidates with the exception of Matthei are leftists so...

I agree with you, but in Matthei's case, she had a way to connect with the average chilean. UDI itself gets most of their votes from low income areas (which is why they call themselves UDI Popular), so her problem is based more on Piñera, the constant change of candidates and the personality fight she lost against Bachelet. Parisi is also a right winger, as is Israel, but in the second round Bachelet will indeed win. Golborne and Allamand might have had a chance, but it's over now.

That all seems wildly divergent. But is the basic feeling ~40 Bachelet ~20 Matthei ~40 others, with up to half of that being for Parisi?

More or less, yes, but many people insist on Bachelet winning 51% the first round. That already happened in 1989 and 1993, but times have changed a lot.

This is not going to be an exciting race, apparently, but the election is in 11 days.

CEP poll (September-October).

Michelle Bachelet (Nueva Mayoría) 47% Evelyn Matthei (Alianza) 14% Franco Parisi (Independent) 10% Marco Enríquez-Ominami (Progressive Party) 7% Marcel Claude Reyes (Humanist Party) 3%. Other candidates under 1%, undecided 16%

http://www.cepchile.cl/PDFs_CEP/encuestaCEP_sep-oct2013-completa.pdf

Last poll in El Mercurio: Bachelet 46.2%; Matthei 21.7%; Parisi 7.9%; Ominami 7.2%; Claude Reyes 1.7%.

http://impresa.elmercurio.com/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?dt=2013-11-02&dtB=02-11-2013%200:00:00&PaginaId=2&bodyid=3

However, other polls give different and contradictory results and Bachelet has lower percentages. The less generous with the former socialist president are UVM (Viña del Mar University, 27.1%) and Ipsos (32%) polls. Matthei is between 14.3% (Diego Portales University) and 26% (La Segunda). Parisi seems to be the more unpredictable, oscillating between 7.9% (El Mercurio) and 26.1% (EM Antofagasta). Has Parisi chances to become in the surprise of this election?

I would trust those last polls more, Bachelet is really popular, but she is not going to steal away the election in a massive landslide. Somehow I don't believe it, even when the right has suffered massive blows this year... Besides, most polls have a bias anyway, so it's hard to trust them.

[Lumine]

I would trust those last polls more, Bachelet is really popular, but she is not going to steal away the election in a massive landslide. Somehow I don't believe it, even when the right has suffered massive blows this year... Besides, most polls have a bias anyway, so it's hard to trust them.

I was suspecting that most of polls are biased and not too much reliable. While I was taking a look, I speculated a bit on the possible result in the first round and my conclusion was not so different from yours. My bet is that the 1st round might have some similarity with the 2005 result. Bachelet first with about 45% of the vote. Matthei playing the role of Lavín in 2005 and struggling to reach 25% and the second round. Parisi coming from behind -a mix of Piñera 2005 and Ominami 2009- and threatening the UDI candidate. Ominami coming fourth like Hirsch in 2005.

Santiago has brilliant public transport

Indeed. The users of the Sarmiento Line in Buenos Aires have more reasons to complain. They would like to have a public transport as that of Santiago. Also some Argentinians envy the stability of the Chilean party system but, on the other hand, polls say a majority in Chile is deeply disillusioned by the political system.

Indeed, that looks like the safest bet. But Parisi is already ahead of Matthei in two regions (Antofagasta and Aysen), and he drives a lot of turnout, while Matthei's voters are likely to stay home after the past months. Parisi has little to no money, but unlike Matthei, he creates enthusiasm with the people in a way that not even Fra-Fra Errazuriz (a populist businessman who got 15% in 1989) could. Here's his campaign song, BTW: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dv2w2la31eA, "The Power of the People" is a slogan that has proved to be quite popular.

I think the reason behind those polls that show the disenchantment is that Chile is by nature a pessimistic country. The military government chose technocracy instead of ideology (anti-communism aside), and the Concertacion and Piñera chose the same route. As a result, people here don't believe in ideas, they believe in people. If you ask them about their Deputies, Senators or Mayors they approve of them, but they hate the system because it is a mainstream thing to do. The Chilean middle class also faces many problems when it comes to high taxation, low wages (in our opinion, not by comparison) and the perception of corruption and inefficiency the government has. By comparison with our neighbors we are doing great (but we need serious health, environmental, crime and transport reform), but that's not enough. If you ask me, nothing will ever be enough...

[Lumine]

And the election is today! (Sorry for the lack of updates)

I'll be covering the results as a reporter for a local radio station here in my hometown, and while the Presidential election fails to create proper suspense, the Congressional elections (like Ichabod said) are going to be very interesting, just like the Regional Councilors election.

Last thoughts on the candidates:

-Bachelet: Her victory is a foregone conclusion, but I highly doubt she will win the first round with more than 50%, even with depressed right-wing turnout.
-Matthei: She delivered a strong final push, but her supporters are filled with doubts and a lack of enthusiasm. Voters really don't know why is she there and what is her true plan for Chile.
-Parisi: Seems to have lost a lot of support in the polls, and know it's improbable that he makes it to the second round.
-Ominami: Won a lot of good will, but his chances for 2017 will be damaged if he fails to get more than 10%.
-Claude: Saw some damage from several lawsuits, but he might give a suprise.
-Sfeir: Polls put him at 1-2%, so he depends on turnout.
-Miranda: Ready to give another suprise with a strong campaign, but again, it's a matter of turnout.
-Israel: The PRI base is unlikely to vote for him in a landslide (many of them prefer Parisi), and his efforts pretty much collapsed after the debates, despite his appeals to catholic voters.
-Jocelyn-Holt: Had a bad final week, pretty much ignored and alone.

All in all, I expect Bachelet to win the second round against Matthei in landslide, a Nueva Mayoria majority in Congress (but not with enough votes to change the Constitution) and a Bachelet term with far more gridlock than Piñera's term. Like Bachelet's first term, her coalition will tend to constant rebellions and she'll take the pragmatic and centrist approach, disappointing the left once again. Piñera is likely to be rehabilitated with the public, and RN and UDI will have to redefine the terms of their alliance (I personally wish RN to break free, but it's not going to happen). But still, anyone who thinks that Chile will suffer deep changes and that Bachelet will be our savior is (in my opinion) quite deluded. It's like expecting Matthei to take a leftist approach or the UDI finally accepting gay marriage: it's not going to happen.

[Lumine]

Michelle Bachelet's clothing style is great. I like when politicians campaign in pyjamas:

Oh, you should see Alfredo Sfeir, the ecologist candidate:

Several memes joke that he looks like Christopher Lee as Count Dooku...

My prediction:

46% Bachelet
32% Matthei
22% Others

Turnout: 54%

...

But frankly, I have no clue ...

As Ichabod said, Matthei passing the 30% threshold would be a victory indeed, so 20-25 would be more in line with the polls... If she manages to do well in Santiago, she might be able to do better than Arturo Alessandri Besa, but, who knows?

Could you tell us in which districts has Nueva Mayoria chances of doubling the Alliance?

Is RN ready to vote in favour of the removal of the nasty binomial system?

Ichabod's list sounds about right, but 32 and 36 will require a lot of work. There are many spoiler candidates making it very complicated. In the Senate, there is a danger of doubling in Punta Arenas (the Alliance is running regional independents here), Antofagasta (only one candidate after the Cruz-Coke disaster), Concepcion and in a part of Santiago (Allamand v. Zalaquett aren't strong enough this time).

And RN might be willing to do so, Carlos Larrain (conservative, head of the establishment) is willing to do so, but ironically it's the liberals within the party that are blocking some of the measures to oppose Larrain himself. If Allamand, Kast and the liberal candidates are elected and they find themselves with greater power, they might back the removal.