Chilean Presidential Election 2013 - Doomsday is here!

[Zanas]

No, I think the question is which dwarf ends up second and will that dwarf even cross 10%...

[Velasco]

Post-Primary: Or, how the campaign got insane:

At the same time, RN and the Concertacion managed to put together an agreement to modify up the Binomial system and eliminate some of the unfair parts of it. UDI and the Government, left aside, decided to create their own plan (a very rushed and useless proposal).

So screw the coalition, I'm sick of the bickering and the hegemony of UDI and the far right, I will be voting independent in this election.

It's great that RN supports a reform of the Binomial system but, do you think it's possible to pass legislation in time for the next elections? From what I read in the press, I got the impression that it's unlikely.

Also, if you are going to root for an independent, which would be your choice? Parisi perhaps?, Jocelyn-Holt? Marcel Claude Reyes? It would be interesting to know their pros and cons from your perspective.

I think (it's just an speculation) that any candidate supported by the right would have insured an important percentage of vote, do not know if 1/4 or 1/3. More than 10 % in any case... unless some independent candidate was capable of assembling an important support around him/her, enough to be perceived as a viable alternative. What do you think?

[Lumine]

Does the right will be allowed to have a replacement candidate?

Yes, they have until August 19th, and the parties have the right to choose a joint candidate or two separate candidates for the first round. But the problem is that they lack options. The have the defeated candidates, but Golborne said no and Allamand lost his credibility and self-confidence. They also have two minor options with former Minister Felipe Kast (leader of Evolucion Politica, a new movement from the liberal right) and Mayor Manuel Jose Ossandon (from RN, with low name recognition but also quite charismatic), and they could bring up the last big candidate they have left: Minister and Former Senator Evelyn Matthei, but even she has a lot of weaknesses.

So, the question is whether Bachelet wins by 1st or 2nd round, then?

No, I think the question is which dwarf ends up second and will that dwarf even cross 10%...

That depends on the sacrificial lamb the Coalicion sends. You see, Bachelet will win the second round, but if turnout doesn't go as expected she might end up short of 50% (45% would be the minimun I see her winning), so that would be the best case scenario for the Coalicion (the problem is that they have no candidates, since Matthei and Allamand are eliminated by law).

Post-Primary: Or, how the campaign got insane:

At the same time, RN and the Concertacion managed to put together an agreement to modify up the Binomial system and eliminate some of the unfair parts of it. UDI and the Government, left aside, decided to create their own plan (a very rushed and useless proposal).

So screw the coalition, I'm sick of the bickering and the hegemony of UDI and the far right, I will be voting independent in this election.

It's great that RN supports a reform of the Binomial system but, do you think it's possible to pass legislation in time for the next elections? From what I read in the press, I got the impression that it's unlikely.

Also, if you are going to root for an independent, which would be your choice? Parisi perhaps?, Jocelyn-Holt? Marcel Claude Reyes? It would be interesting to know their pros and cons from your perspective.

I think (it's just an speculation) that any candidate supported by the right would have insured an important percentage of vote, do not know if 1/4 or 1/3. More than 10 % in any case... unless some independent candidate was capable of assembling an important support around him/her, enough to be perceived as a viable alternative. What do you think?

Well, discussions should end before Friday and they should hold a vote next week, but in my opinion it is too late for this to work in the current elections (which means we are going to have to wait four years, and idea I personally hate, I feel this country should have legislative midterms).

Going with the independents (even the ones without a change to go to the first round), and rating them from right to left, here's what I think so far:

Eduardo Diaz Herrera: Regionalist from the South, former supporter of Pinochet. UDI might be tempted, but he is boring, has no money, no support and nobody knows him.

Franco Parisi: He is quite similar to former candidate Francisco Javier ("Fra-Fra") Errazuriz (without the forced labor), and he believes that the solutions to our country are in the markets. He's a clueless and populist neoliberal (and I refuse to vote for him), but he is quite popular. The right would be willing to support him, but he said clearly that he won't accept the official support of any political party.

Tomas Jocelyn-Holt: Former Deputy and former member of the DC, he is my tentative choice for President. Liberal and progressive, but with a moderated speech, has both experience and skills. Problem? He has no money, he is quite arrogant and he dislikes the right, so I highly doubt that even the Liberal wing of RN (which I support) would consider endorsing him.

Marcel Claude: Ugh. He talks like a chilean communist, acts like a chilean communist, and has the beliefs of a chilean communist. Seriously, he is the PC's second choice (considering that they half heartedly endorsed Bachelet), and while the guy is intelligent and competent, I would vote for Parisi or Bachelet before him.

Alfredo Sfeir: The ecologist. He is my third choice, behind Jocelyn-Holt and a competent Coalicion candidate (if and only if they manage to find one). Perhaps too liberal for my taste, but I can't oppose candidates who are truly concerned about the environment, and he is. Obviously he has no chance, but a 1993 candidate with his same views, Manfred Max Neef, managed to get 5% of the vote, so he is capable of winning a similar percentage of votes.

Now, the problem with the right is that this is not 1993 anymore, when they had a replacement compromise candidate with Senator Arturo Alessandri Besa (24% of the first round vote). We are facing 1964: In that election, we had three candidates: Salvador Allende (PS - left), Eduardo Frei Montalva (DC - center) and Julio Duran (PR - center-right). Allende looked set to win the election, Duran's campaign collapsed and the right had no choice but to back Frei, who managed to win the election. A the same time, the right went down from 30% of the parliamentary vote from 12%, and they were almost exterminated.

The Coalicion has three ways of solving the dilemma:

-Put a replacement with no change, and focus on the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies (1993 style)
-No candidates, unofficial backing of Parisi (1964 style)
-Send two candidates (one from RN and one from UDI), in an attempt to maximize turnout (2005-2006 style).

This is a truly unprecedented scenario, so the parties are in chaos and we won't have a new candidate today or tomorrow, this will take time. They could also ditch previous scenarios and go with a new formula, but I can't think of anything that might work. Their force is measured between 20 and 35% of the vote, so they have become the ultimate wildcard here.

[Ichabod]

There is no way they endorse Parisi, that would mean a disaster in congressional elections.

[ag]

Well, it's Matthei. Couldn't be more straightforward: another referendum on Pinochet.

[RodPresident]

Two daughters of Air Force Generals facing one to another. Matthei's father was Air Force Academy commander when Bachelet's father was imprisioned there.

[Lumine]

There is no way they endorse Parisi, that would mean a disaster in congressional elections.

They won't, but I guess the possibility of another 1964 was there.

Well, it's Matthei. Couldn't be more straightforward: another referendum on Pinochet.

Two daughters of Air Force Generals facing one to another. Matthei's father was Air Force Academy commander when Bachelet's father was imprisioned there.

We have a curious coincidence with that (after all, Michelle Bachelet and Evelyn Matthei know each other since there were girls), but to say that this is a referendum of Pinochet is ridiculous. Everybody here (and includes most of the UDI) knows that even if you are a Pinochet supporter you will lose if that's your only campaign issue.

You see, only two Presidential candidates have been open supporters of Pinochet (Jose Piñera in 1993 with 6% of the vote and Arturo Frei Bolivar in 1999, with 0,3% of the vote), and all of the mainstream right wing candidates denounced him in a way or another (Alessandri, Lavin and Piñera). And while Matthei supports a part of the Pinochet Legacy, she is not one of the UDI hardliners like Senator Jovino Novoa, Deputy Ivan Moreira or Pablo Longueira.

The real issue here is whether the right will unite behind Matthei. UDI decided to play against the Coalicion rules and they proclaimed Matthei as the "de facto" candidate for the center right, and RN is not willing to be the UDI's lackey, not after Piñera surrendered, the liberal right was strangled in the cradle and Allamand was humiliated. There has been some talk of holding a convention or a closed primary, but RN will not accept her just like that. They have no candidates (Cruz-Coke, Ossandon and Lily Perez are too valuable to send them to a slaughter house), but they are not happy at all with this.

Still, and despite the fact that I hate how UDI has hijacked the President, the government and that they killed the liberal right that I used to admire, Matthei is the only UDI I would vote for. She was part of RN in the past, after all, and she supports civil unions as far as I'm concerned, so I think she is quite reasonable. My personal choice here would be the RN Manuel Jose Ossandon, since he's one of the last voices of the liberal right (and has the reputation of hating the right wing Establishment ), but he's too valuable as a Senate candidate right now.

[Lumine]

Oh, and a small update of the current ballot for the first round:

Qualified Candidates:

Former President Michelle Bachelet (Partido Socialista, Partido Por la Democracia, Democracia Cristiana, Partido Radical Social Democrata, Izquierda Cristiana, Partido Comunista, Movimiento Amplio Social)
Former Minister Evelyn Matthei (Union Democrata Independiente, ¿Renovacion Nacional?)
Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (Partido Progresista, Partido Liberal de Chile)
Economist Marcel Claude (Partido Humanista, Izquierda Unida)
Economist Franco Parisi (Independent)
Activist Roxana Miranda (Partido Igualdad)
Mr. Ricardo Israel (Partido Regionalista Independente, announced just today)

Candidates who still lack enough signatures:

Economist Alfredo Sfeir Younis (Partido Ecologista)
Former Deputy Tomas Jocelyn-Holt (Independent)
Former Mayor Eduardo Diaz Herrera (Independent)
Mr. Gustavo Ruz Zañartu (Independent)

The amount of candidates is almost unbelievable, six was the biggest amount we had (1993 and 1999), and if Sfeir and Jocelyn-Holt qualify (Ruz and Diaz won't), we might have nine candidates, ten if RN wants of have one. It's truly unique.

[Velasco]

Thank you for sharing your impressions on the independents and outsiders. Obviously it was a little joke asking you for Marcel Claude.

From what I'm reading in la Tercera right now, Joaquín Lavín has agreed to be the chief of Matthei's campaign, the same post that was going to occupy with Longueira - btw, it's funny to know that campaign chiefs in Chile receive the name of generalissimo, perhaps because electoral campaigns are like wars-. Lavín has stated that Matthei is willing to accept closed primaries or a convention in order to look for an unity candidacy, but also ramarks that the candidate has to be competitive because "we have too much at stake", not only presidential but parliamentary elections. On the other hand the president of PS, Osvaldo Andrade, says that UDI, loyal to its "dictatorial womb", has imposed the candidate and says that the aim of UDI is not the presidential race but to maintain an important parliamentary group and I think he's hinting that RN might get pressures from UDI because of the reform of the Binomial system.

Two daughters of Air Force Generals facing one to another. Matthei's father was Air Force Academy commander when Bachelet's father was imprisioned there.

Nevertheless, months before Michelle's comeback, when the polemic around general Matthei arose in the context of the investigation on the murder of general Bachelet, her widow said that she has the certainty of which general Matthei wasn't in the Academy when her husband was tortured. "He always was a friend of ours", said Mrs Bachelet dismissing Matthei's connection. So I guess this won't be an issue, unless the investigation says the opposite. On the other hand, Evelyn Matthei is known as the "Iron Lady" of the Chilean right and her clashes with some parliamentarians, so perhaps there will be a hot campaign, dialectically speaking.

[ag]

The question is not, whether Everlyn Matthei supports Pinochet or the coup (still less whether she makes it the only campaign issue - she can´t be that stupid). The question, rather, is, whether it is going to be possible to vote for a Matthei against a Batchelet in this election, without declaring your own, de facto, support for the Pinochet and the coup. Symbols matter, you know.

[Velasco]

Finally, I've finished a map of the 2009-2010 Presidential Election. Vote percentages for the 1st round and margins for the 2nd round.

Full size here: http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/7442/ught.png

[Lumine]

The question is not, whether Everlyn Matthei supports Pinochet or the coup (still less whether she makes it the only campaign issue - she can´t be that stupid). The question, rather, is, whether it is going to be possible to vote for a Matthei against a Batchelet in this election, without declaring your own, de facto, support for the Pinochet and the coup. Symbols matter, you know.

They do, but this election is different to the others in some ways. While there are vocal minorities that have an actual hatred for the other side (and not just the usual mutual contempt, many people hate Bachelet and many people hate the entire right), I believe that most people are tired to the whole "Yes-No politics" (which go as far as the 1988 plebiscite), and that as symbolic as it might be to the vocal minority, there are more pressing matters that will decide the vote for the majority that has to be motivated to vote.

Finally, I've finished a map of the 2009-2010 Presidential Election. Vote percentages for the 1st round and margins for the 2nd round.

That's awesome! A great map, I have to admit, it easily shows how Ominami damaged Frei in the First Round (even beating him and Piñera in some of the Concertacion northern strongholds), but at the same time it shows the usual strongholds for both the Concertacion and the Alianza/Coalicion in the second round, that is, the Concertacion usually wins the north, the Coalicion/Alianza the south, and the center and Santiago are the tossups to win.

Oh, in other news:

-Andres Allamand decided not to jump on the race again, citing responsibility, but some RN members (headed by Manuel Jose Ossandon) have accused UDI of putting a "veto" on Allamand. Remaining options are Lily Perez, Luciano Cruz-Coke and Francisco Chahuan, but none of the are interested.
-Michelle Bachelet stops his campaign to spend two weeks in vacation in New York City. Private sources claim that she believes the race is won (and I don't blame her at all).
-Independent candidates face an upsurge in and attention: Tomas Jocelyn Holt has 36.000 signatures and Eduardo Diaz has 28.000 (a real miracle, I have no idea how he managed to do that without money, online campaigning or even organization), while Gustavo Ruz's signature number is unknown.

[ag]

The question is not, whether Everlyn Matthei supports Pinochet or the coup (still less whether she makes it the only campaign issue - she can´t be that stupid). The question, rather, is, whether it is going to be possible to vote for a Matthei against a Batchelet in this election, without declaring your own, de facto, support for the Pinochet and the coup. Symbols matter, you know.

They do, but this election is different to the others in some ways. While there are vocal minorities that have an actual hatred for the other side (and not just the usual mutual contempt, many people hate Bachelet and many people hate the entire right), I believe that most people are tired to the whole "Yes-No politics" (which go as far as the 1988 plebiscite), and that as symbolic as it might be to the vocal minority, there are more pressing matters that will decide the vote for the majority that has to be motivated to vote.

This might have been the case before, with different candidates. Can it still be the case w/ a Matthei vs. Bachelet race? Matthei agreeing to be the candidate by itself converts it into a referendum. Short of coming out strongly and forcefully against the old junta (including her own father),  I can hardly think what she can do to avoid this being the main theme of the entire race. The only way she could be running for president without making it the yes/know referendum that I see would be if she had made her career on the left, not on the right.

Bachelet shouldn't be taking anything for granted, though. Whoever takes a presidential race for granted, loses against a determined opponent.

[Velasco]

Finally, I've finished a map of the 2009-2010 Presidential Election. Vote percentages for the 1st round and margins for the 2nd round.

I have to admit, it easily shows how Ominami damaged Frei in the First Round (even beating him and Piñera in some of the Concertacion northern strongholds), but at the same time it shows the usual strongholds for both the Concertacion and the Alianza/Coalicion in the second round, that is, the Concertacion usually wins the north, the Coalicion/Alianza the south, and the center and Santiago are the tossups to win.

... And the lack of enthusiasm around Frei's candidacy. The addition Frei+Ominami+Arrate was 55% against 45% for the Coalition in the First Round. If you look at the north, Frei's margins in Atacama and Antofagasta were low, whereas Coquimbo reamined as a stronghold in the interior but not in La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation, which was a tossup. I think Concertación's margins in popular areas of Santiago might have been higher in 'normal' conditions. In the south, I was thinking Valdivia was more right leaning than Puerto Montt, but I was wrong because Piñera achieved a strong victory in the latter and Frei won a tossup in the first.

The question is not, whether Everlyn Matthei supports Pinochet or the coup (still less whether she makes it the only campaign issue - she can´t be that stupid). The question, rather, is, whether it is going to be possible to vote for a Matthei against a Batchelet in this election, without declaring your own, de facto, support for the Pinochet and the coup. Symbols matter, you know.

They do, but this election is different to the others in some ways. While there are vocal minorities that have an actual hatred for the other side (and not just the usual mutual contempt, many people hate Bachelet and many people hate the entire right), I believe that most people are tired to the whole "Yes-No politics" (which go as far as the 1988 plebiscite), and that as symbolic as it might be to the vocal minority, there are more pressing matters that will decide the vote for the majority that has to be motivated to vote.

This might have been the case before, with different candidates. Can it still be the case w/ a Matthei vs. Bachelet race? Matthei agreeing to be the candidate by itself converts it into a referendum. Short of coming out strongly and forcefully against the old junta (including her own father),  I can hardly think what she can do to avoid this being the main theme of the entire race. The only way she could be running for president without making it the yes/know referendum that I see would be if she had made her career on the left, not on the right.

Bachelet shouldn't be taking anything for granted, though. Whoever takes a presidential race for granted, loses against a determined opponent.

My opinion is that symbols plus the style of the UDI candidate may movilize a sizeable sector among the voters of the old Concertación against Matthei, but I doubt Bachelet will use the past as a banner of her campaign. That's not her style.

[ag]

Bachelet does not need to do anything to frame the campaign. This is so obviously implicit in the entire situation, that saying anything explicitly is simply unnecessary.

[Velasco]

Today I bought the paper, as I used to do on Sundays, and I found an article about Bachelet and Matthei families. Michelle (6) and Evelyn (4) were living by 1958 in the same street in a military base in Antofagasta, in the north of Chile.

I have another map, this time of the 2005 election. The first round looks like a landslide for Bachelet because the vote of the right was splitted at almost equal parts between Sebastián Piñera (RN) and Joaquín Lavín (UDI). Bachelet got 45.96%, Piñera 25.41%, Lavín 23.23% and Tomás Hirsch (Together We Can, left-wing) 5.4%. In the 2nd round Bachelet defeated Piñera by a 7% margin (53.5% to 46.5%).

Full size to see the details: http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/3076/70hv.png

[Lumine]

Fascinating map, it manages to give a very different view of what happened in the 2005 2nd round by portraying major Bachelet landslides. The argument that the PC helps the Concertacion win the second round was used in both 2000 and 2005, and while that was true in Ricardo Lagos's victory, Bachelet managed to trounce Piñera using both Hirsch's left wing vote and (I believe) the vote of women (in this case, middle class women who usually vote DC but have a tendency to vote for the right when the Concertacion candidate is too left wing).

Piñera managed to hold the line on the South and the upper part of the North thanks to the support of the minor regionalist parties, but heavy losses in the center of the country ended up increasing his margin of defeat (which was expected to be 4-5% instead of 7%).

[Velasco]

Fascinating map, it manages to give a very different view of what happened in the 2005 2nd round by portraying major Bachelet landslides. The argument that the PC helps the Concertacion win the second round was used in both 2000 and 2005, and while that was true in Ricardo Lagos's victory, Bachelet managed to trounce Piñera using both Hirsch's left wing vote and (I believe) the vote of women (in this case, middle class women who usually vote DC but have a tendency to vote for the right when the Concertacion candidate is too left wing).

How about Ominami in 2009?. In Chile you have separate booths for men and women, so perhaps you could demonstrate your theory about the 2005 election checking the 1st and 2nd round results in certain communes. In Argentina there were separate polling booths at least until the 2009 elections. In the 2007 presidential Elisa Carrió got higher percentages among the women and the difference was quite perceptible in some cases. It's curious because her main rival was a woman too and performed in the opposite way, with higher support among men.

[Lumine]

Update Number One: The Current Field:

I decided to wait to see how the first part of the campaign went, at least until the first debate, and right now we have 19 days until the first round is over. Last time I was covering this, Matthei was the Coalicion's new hope, Bachelet was cruising to victory and the independent candidates were struggling to get on the ballot. By Mid-August, the signature day arrived, and nine candidates managed to get there.

Qualified Candidates:

Former President Michelle Bachelet (Concertacion, renamed "Nueva Mayoria)
Former Minister Evelyn Matthei (Coalicion)
Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO-PL)
Economist Marcel Claude (PH-Ind - Had the 20.000 signatures and the support of one party)
Economist Franco Parisi (Ind. - More than 50.000 signatures)
Activist Roxana Miranda (PI)
Mr. Ricardo Israel (PRI)
Economist Alfredo Sfeir Younis (PE)
Former Deputy Tomas Jocelyn-Holt (Ind. - Got 36.000 signatures, just about enough)

Former Mayor Eduardo Diaz Herrera (right-wing) and Mr. Gustavo Ruz Zañartu (far-left) failed to get enough signatures, having between 26.000 and 28.000 each (you needed 35.000).

There, the campaign was given the get go while other candidates tried to create strong lists of candidates for the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. While the Concertacion/Nueva Mayoria managed to get a coherent list (Despite troubles with a lack of primaries and the DC-PC feud), the Coalicion collapsed. One of the Senate candidates, Former Minister and Actor Luciano Cruz Coke, was left outside (he broke a law that prevents Ministers from going to that election if the didn't resign in December, and he did so in May.), and Andres Allamand and Manuel Jose Ossandon (the best leaders the party has) are going to have a bitter fight against the UDI powerhouses of Laurence Golborne (now a Senate candidate) and defeated but still popular Mayor Pablo Zalaquett.

Matthei then tried an aggressive style of campaign, and failed miserably. Bachelet played the statesman card, RN left Matthei alone, Piñera gave her a half-hearted endorsement, and so forth, so forth. But the race has been pretty unstable for a reason nobody predicted.

The 1973 coup.

[Lumine]

Update Number Two: Fear and Loathing in Chile:

The Nueva Mayoria tried a different approach this year when it came to the 40th anniversary of Allende's death, and so did Sebastian Piñera. President Piñera announced that he wanted a big public event with all Former Presidents and Presidential Candidates to remember the date together and avoid more bitter fighting. In response, the Nueva Mayoria created their own public event, and all Former Presidents and Presidential Candidates (except Matthei, Sfeir and Israel) refused Piñera, joining Bachelet's event, which was a resounding success.

Then, when it was discovered that the Director of SERVEL, Former General and Commander in Chief Juan Emilio Cheyre (one of the most respected military figures here) had a slight connection to an event in 1973 (as a minor officer, he was tasked with delivering a child whose parents were executed to the Church as "anonymous"), he was forced to resign due to public pressure. Reacting quickly, Matthei was ready to defend her father and her lack of involvement in 1973 (she was 20 years old), but nobody took her seriously.

September 18th is our independence date, and so the celebrations here served to calm down the controversy of Allende and Pinochet's legacy. But when the celebration was over, several right-wing figures headed by businessman Augusto Edwards (now accused of being one of the leading CIA contacts in Operation Mockingbird) accused DC of asking for a coup in 1973 (true), which the DC denied, trying to re-write history to show they were always supportive of Allende (blatantly false).

Bachelet then came under fire from all sides for not being progressive enough and for being incredibly vague on her proposals (she refused to come to debates), so she got tired and she refused to involve herself in the whole 1973 thing (a great move).

And then came the event. The ten highest ranking military officers condemned for breaking human rights (including the infamous Manuel Contreras, responsible of dozens of executions and systematic torture) were being held in Cordillera, a special jail with a lot of benefits for the inmates (TV, sports, free time, weekend passes, internet), so many activists within the left asked for Cordillera to be closed. President Piñera, who is fed up with UDI, is now pursuing a statesman strategy to overcome ridicule and to return in full force in 2018, so he took everybody by surprise: he closed Cordillera two days ago, shocking his allies.

Piñera voted No and he wanted to be DC in 1988, so it shouldn't be surprising, but UDI is screaming "Treason! Treason!" and the left is like: Oh.... Well, it's still not enough."

And today, retired General Odlanier Mena, former head of CNI and the nemesis of Manuel Contreras committed suicide, trying to stop the closure in a desperate efforts (he was very ill and close to death, so he decided to go out like that to make a statement).

Will Piñera close Cordillera? Will Matthei finally collapse? Will Bachelet keep sinking in the polls?

[Lumine]

Oh, and the final thing here: Polls. They are scarse, unreliable and not very believable, but here they go:

Two polls, released on September 16th and September 23rd:

Bachelet: 31% and 30,9%
Matthei: 20% and 18,5%
Parisi: 13% and 11,4%
Ominami: 9% and 5%
Claude: 7% and 3,1%
Sfeir: 2% and 0,5%
Miranda: 1% and 0,2%
Israel: 1% and 0%
Jocelyn-Holt: 2% and 0,1%
Doesn't know: 15% and 30%

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Any chance Parisi could make the second round and if so would he do better or worse against Bachelet than Matthei?

[Lumine]

Any chance Parisi could make the second round and if so would he do better or worse against Bachelet than Matthei?

Yes, it is a slim chance considering the right always gets more than 25%, but this election depends on turnout, and Parisi is very good at that. He has a quite loyal following, and he might (just might) defeat Matthei and take on Bachelet in the second round. I can't find the polls right now, but his favorability raitings are high (just like Ominami), he could easily get the right wing vote and independents prefer him. He is not going to defeat Bachelet, but he would make it closer, just like with Ominami.

If I had to predict:

Bachelet: 55-65% - Matthei: 35-45% (if Matthei does not collapse)
Bachelet: 50-55% - Parisi: 40-45%
Bachelet: 50-60% - Ominami: 40-50% (that one depends on turnout and the right backing him to stop Bachelet)

[Leftbehind]

What is the "Allendist Socialism (movement)" and why is it backing Ominami?

[Lumine]

What is the "Allendist Socialism (movement)" and why is it backing Ominami?

A small political party that tries (very hard) to keep Allende's memory alive, it serves as a vehicle of the disenchanted left that hates the Concertation/Nueva Mayoria for being too centrist for their taste (similar to progressives and the current Democratic Party in the US). They usually back the Communist candidate, but this time they had few options:

Matthei, Parisi, Jocelyn-Holt and Israel are too right wing for them, Bachelet is a non starter (even if the communists back her), Sfeir is unpredictable, Claude was a DC back in 1973 (and hated Allende then, now he seems to adore the former President), and the only ones left are Roxana Miranda and Ominami. Miranda is deeply unpopular and Ominami, while a Social Democrat at heart, is the natural son of a hero of the Chilean left (Miguel Enriquez), he dislikes Bachelet and he is rising on the polls. Bingo!