Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Poirot]

The NDP got stomped in Quebec in 2019, but even after that wipeout there was still a small number of ridings that weren't necessarily total lost causes. Are they trying to get the ex-MPs to run again or otherwise looking like they'll make any sort of effort in them, or has the whole province outside of Boulerice's seat been written off for the foreseeable future?

There was a newspaper article a few days ago about not many Quebec NDP MPs who lost in last election running again this time. There is François Choquette in Drummond and Brigitte Sansoucy in Saint-Hyacinthe. Guy Caron is trying for Rimouski Mayor in November.

It mentioned also the party does better where Québec Solidaire did best. Demographics of urban, young, does better among women, students. A goal to win 6 seats, targets Outremont, Laurier Ste-Marie, Beauport-Limoilou, Hochelaga, Sherbrooke.

Eve Péclet is a former MP in east end Montreal who will run in Outremont where she lives. I think there is one another former MP running

Since then Ruth Ellen Brosseau will make an announcement so it looks like she will run in Berthier-Maskinongé again.

While I don't know much about QC politics, I'd imagine going for Quebec Solidaire voters is a much better approach for today's NDP than trying to rebuild that Layton Orange Wave. NDPers tend to have a lot of nostalgia for the Orange Wave, and understandably so given the historic nature of that election. But they need to snap out of it. Even under Mulcair they just barely held on to Saint-Hyacinthe Bagot, Trois-Rivieres, Jonquiere and so on

Quebec Solidaire, if not Quebec Solidaire voters, is the loony left.  Quebec Solidaire is a number of degrees to the left of the NDP.  I don't know if that has any impact on the NDP securing the votes of Quebec Solidaire voters, but I can absolutely see why the NDP does not want to get close to Quebec Solidaire.

And, that is even without taking into account that Quebec Solidaire is a separatist party.

QS and NDP in Montreal have the reputation of being close. The federal NDP did not support the new party NDP Québec last time. I guess it's not to keep good relations with QS and their volunteer.

Half of QS voters are not for sovereignty. It's more for social justice and sovereignty is not their main issue.

[Poirot]

Beauport is a strane NDP target and... they don't even have a candidate in Sherbrooke again. If Dusseault is running again, then sure...

I really can't see the NDP winning anything other than Rosemont at the moment. I suppose REB has an outside chance at Berthier - but she probably should've been campaigning the last 2 years to have a shot. And I guess they have a shot at Hochelaga, but the east end has been trending Liberal lately (provincially too). Hard to see the Liberals dropping there.

I agree probably only Rosemont. Beauport-Limoilou I think is because Limoilou is reprsented by QS provincially. The Liberals are running a union leader, the Conservative a former MP. Liberals want to win it.

A former NDP MP is running for the Liberals. François Lapointe in Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup. He was contacted by the LPC. He says NDP is not his political family anymore, how they treated Mulcair and how the current leader refuse to dissociate from the comments by an Ottawa University professor who called the Quebec government white supremacist.

Quand le PLC m’a contacté, il m’a fallu prendre un temps de réflexion. Je savais que le NPD n’était plus ma famille politique. Ils ont traité Tom Mulcair avec une sorte de mépris et j’ai été sérieusement désabusé de voir l’actuel chef des néo-démocrates refuser de se dissocier des propos du professeur d’université d’Ottawa qui a traité le gouvernement québécois de suprémaciste blanc, poursuit-il.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1817081/francois-lapointe-candidat-parti-liberal-canada-plc-montmagny-lislet-kamouraska-rdl

[Poirot]

Beauport is a strane NDP target and... they don't even have a candidate in Sherbrooke again. If Dusseault is running again, then sure...

Not Dusseault. The NDP candidate is Marika Lalime, a history student. Someone with the same name ran in Châteauguay last election, I'm guessing the same person. In Sherbrooke the four bigger parties have women candidates.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1817121/femmes-candidates-sherbrooke-elections-2021

[Poirot]

In Quebec hospitalizations are nearing capacity for covid patients and the number of cases are at an all time high (and the number of declared cases may not be the reality since testing is running at full capacity and they suggest if you test positive with a rapid test at home don't go at testing center). I guess if it gets worse they will postpone other hospital activities. The ICU patients and deaths are rising but not huge spike yet.

10 pm curfew was annouced December 30 taking effect December 31 so no New Years activities. Unless you live alone you can't join another house bubble. Dining inside restaurants is closed.

Wihtout covid the health system is already strectched and there is personnel shortage.

I don't know if the last weeks will have an effect on the popularity of the government. At the beginning of the month the premier says maybe the size of gatherings could be 25 for the holidays. The announbcement is 20, then 10, and stay with your house your bubble. Very slow to poceed with a third dose of vaccines (seems there is not enough medical staff) and now they are in a hurry. Rapid home tests for the population distributed in pharmacies the week of Christmas creating a stampede to find a kit, in limited numbers so maybe it's possible to get one in January. Hours of wait outside testing centers to get tested. Some could say they waited too long to take severe measures as cases were rising. Some could be unhappy of lockdown. Or so far people have not been angry at the government, the pandemic is difficult, uncharted territory, they are doing the best they can.

[Poirot]

73-45? Ouch.
Have we a geographic breakdown of who voted how?

It was a secret ballot, so we only have MP's public statements

Known O'Toole supporters:
Chris d'Entremont - West Nova
Eric Duncan - Stormant-Dundas-South Glengarry
Michelle Rempel - Calgary Nose Hill
Tim Uppal - Edmonton Mill Woods
Ron Liepert - Calgary Signal Hill
Karen Vecchio - Elgin Middlesex London

Known opponents
Garnett Genuis - Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan (also reportedly started the coup)
Bob Benzen - Calgary Heritage

We can make some educated guesses as well. Socons hated O'Toole, there's no way Poillievre didn't vote to remove him, etc etc.

Gerard Deltell voted to keep the leader. Not surprising given his current role. He will not run for leadership.
Dimitri Soudas said before the vote that last week the Quebec caucus seemed to be behind O'Toole but today he knew of four Quebec MPs voting against.

Mario Dumont seems to be angry about Poilievere's stance on truckers. Dumont says it shows Poilievre doesn't have the stature of Prime Minister and next time he is a guest on his show he will have to apologized.

[Poirot]

The National Assembly has adopted a unanimous motion asking the federal government not to apply the Emergency Act on Quebec territory.

A majority of Premiers have made comments not really agreeing with the federal government move. Ontario and BC Premiers seem to support it.

[Poirot]

It's a political gesture, that the act should not be used, or not neccesary here but there is no legal exception.

[Poirot]

Mission accomplished?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-ottawa-drops-invocation-of-the-emergencies-act-prime-minister-justin/

Is this a joke. On Monday they say the emergency act is still needed and must be voted. On Wednesday, it's not needed anymore.

[Poirot]

Singh has said today the dental care program is not interfering in jurisdiction. If Quebec can opt out with compensation, I think it shows it is interfering in jurisdiction.

On the introduction of a national dental care program - another commitment the Liberals made to win NDP support - it can be done without the provinces, Singh said.

The initial component of the plan would apply for its first year to children under 12 before expanding to other categories of the population, and would aim to reimburse dental bills for families without coverage, he explained.

"We're not hiring dentists, we're not interfering in jurisdictions," said Singh. "We already have a system that pays for natives and people in the Canadian Armed Forces. We are increasing this payment system."

He said Quebec will be allowed to opt out with full compensation, but he hopes the province will participate in the program. Quebec's health insurance plan provides free services for children under 10 years of age and those receiving last-resort financial assistance.

As for universal implementation, Ottawa and the provinces will have to work together, the NDP leader agreed.

The promise of a drug insurance plan is always nebulous to me. Quebec has some public drug insurance plan so what would change. Would the price of drugs we buy change, the premium, or what is covered. Or it could end up Quebec keeping its plan and Ottawa transfering money in compensation.

It looks like there will be more private delivery of health care because the public system can't do it. I hope the federal government doesn't mind because they keep pushing back negotiations on an increase health funding.

[Poirot]

The Bloc proposed a motion to replace the daily religious prayer in the House of Commons with a secular moment of reflection. The President of Catholics bishopsagrees with this.

The motion was defeated by Conservatives and Liberals. Only Nathaniel Erskine-Smith didn't vote like his party.

Bloc and Greens voted for the motion and most of the NDP. Charlie Angus, Daniel Blaikie, Rachel Blaney and Lori Idlout were the NDP Mps voting against.

[Poirot]

From Poilievre twitter:
Our @CPC_HQ team will propose real solutions to fix this Liberal government’s incompetence, tax hikes, and out-of-control inflationary deficits.

What are tax hikes he is talking about? I'm thinking the federal carbon tax but it's only for provinces with no price on carbon. Are there other tax hikes?

[Poirot]

The Quebec National Assembly adopted a bill to make the oath of allegiance optional  to be able to sit in the assembly. CAQ, PLQ and QS voted for it. PQ members did not sit because they refused to take the oath. They will sit when the assembly work resumes on January 31.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-oath-king-law-1.6680764

It may be challenged in court. Some say it's not legal. PQ suggested a motion of the assembly to let members sit without the oath but the government chose to proceed with a law that modifies the constitution.

[Poirot]

I was polled by Léger and there were a couple of questions on an alliance LIB-NDP and merger of the two. I hope it's for a public poll.

I would also like to see the provincial numbers. The CAQ abandoned its promise to get another link for cars between Quebec City and Lévis. Many in the region will feel betrayed.

[Poirot]

I was polled by Léger and there were a couple of questions on an alliance LIB-NDP and merger of the two. I hope it's for a public poll.

I would also like to see the provincial numbers. The CAQ abandoned its promise to get another link for cars between Quebec City and Lévis. Many in the region will feel betrayed.

It is public. Normal federal vote intentions from Léger:
CPC 36%
LIB 30%
NDP 19%
Bloc 7%
Green 4%
PPC 2%

If there is an alliance between LIB and NDP, with only one of the two parties running a candidate in a riding:
LIB-NDP 41%
CPC 39%
Bloc 8%
Green 6%
PPC 3%

For Quebec provincial voting intentions, CAQ drops 4% since February:

CAQ 36%
PQ 22%
QS 16%
LPQ 14%
PCQ 10%

In the Quebec City region, CAQ has declined by 14%, PQ and PCQ benefit. It's PQ 28, CAQ 26. PCQ 23.

Quebec City is split on the decision to abandon building a tunnel for cars between Québec and Lévis.  46% agree with the decision, 45% disagree. The whole province number is 47% agree, 29% disagree.

[Poirot]

For provincial politics the full results are on the French side of their website.

For the federal vote intentions / possible alliance, the result was in a son of Léger column (result at the bottom). It doesn't give regional numbers which could be interesting (does the race in the prairies get more competitive? what happens in Ontario?) He says the Bloc would gain 4% with a Lib-NDP alliance.

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2023/04/29/sondage-lalliance-entre-les-liberaux-et-le-npd-pourrait-etre-la-voie-de-sortie-de-trudeau

[Poirot]

I don't know if there is a thread for Quebec provincial politics and this one is for federal politics but I wanted to post a Pallas data poll that is showing CAQ continued slippage and now PQ would be first.

PQ 30%
CAQ 24%
Québec Solidaire 16%
Liberal 16%
Conservateur 11%

The poll was done just after the 5 to 7 million dollars subsidy to hold two pre-season games involving the LA Kings in Quebec City next year (against Boston and Florida).  This week there are strike by public sector unions.

[Poirot]

I am not sure what happened that would get a larger Conservative lead.

Maybe it's the spending scandal from the Arrivecan application.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/arrivecan-trudeau-poilievre-pandemic-1.7113057

Or the increase in carbon tax coming and more premiers not liking it.

[Poirot]

I feel like immigration is the third rail of Canadian politics. No one wants to be seen as 'racist' for opposing it, even if Canadians generally oppose it.

I do agree that it will be a big issue in the next election. Poilieve will have to address the issue very carefully. He can't be seen as being racist, but he does risk losing votes to the PPC. I assume Bernier is going to focus his campaign heavily on being anti-immigration and with the Tories assured victory, a lot of people on the far right may feel like voting PPC won't split the vote.

Anecdotally I'm seeing a lot of chatter on places like Reddit about the influx of student immigration from India, and how they're not integrating very well (to put it mildly) on campuses. It's certainly fuelling a lot of racism and xenophobia.   

 

the ppc are a fringe party

They got 5% of the vote last time. Whether you consider that fringe or not is up to you, but it's significant enough for the Conservatives to worry about losing votes to them.

The Tories nominated Erin O Toole last time though, not Pierre Polievre . Erin O Toole was not liked by many right wingers which is why the PPC was able to do that well

Also, a lot of it was just anti-vaccine stuff which just isn't going to be relevant in 2025.

I think it is true that in the end Erin O'Toole wasn't really trusted by anybody. I think there was a sense with many blue collar union workers that liked his pro private sector union policies that if he got elected Prime Minister and tried to implement those pro union policies that there would be a revolt in his caucus.

I think that was a reason why Doug Ford was able to successfully run on pro private sector union policies and succeed while Erin O'Toole failed.

Maybe it's because Poilievre has a firm grip on the party that nobody seem to complain about supporting the federal anti-scab legislation. I imagine if the party did this under O'Toole he would be called more than a red Tory, like a socialist.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservatives-vote-in-favour-anti-scab-bill-1.7127344

If the legislation comes in effect after the election maybe the Conservatives plan to scrap it. I have a hard time imagining they are for it.

[Poirot]

https://globalnews.ca/news/10397176/trudeau-temporary-immigration-canada/
Seems like Trudeau actually is backtracking. There actually could be a scenario where this entire international surge was more incompetence rather than malice.

“To give an example, in 2017, two per cent of Canada’s population was made up of temporary immigrants. Now we’re at 7.5 per cent of our population comprised of temporary immigrants. That’s something we need to get back under control.”

I can't believe the federal government is that incompetent.
Maybe they listened to businesses having difficulties to find employees due to manpower shortage rather than problems associated with such an influx of people.