2022 French legislatives

[Zanas]

It looks like Macron's party will get another majority - but does it matter who comes in second? is there such a thing as an "official opposition" in the National Assembly? In other words if NUPES is the clear second largest block with well over 100 seats and the RN and the remains of LR are way back - does that affect the tenor of French politics for the rest of Macron's tenure or does it not really matter?

I think you need a certain amount of seats to have an official fraction (20 or 30 something like that).

15 deputies are needed for a parliamentary group.

[Zanas]

Interesting that RN doesn't seem to have been overestimated in the polls then. They very much were in 2017.

Once all the urban areas have been counted, I suspect they will lose a couple points still. But indeed they don’t seem to have bled so much, even though they conducted a dreadful (non) campaign

[Zanas]

For now, every increased turnout in the overseas was to oppose LREM, so let's see if it's the same in metropole

[Zanas]

Both Nouvelle-Calédonie seats stay loyalist-ENS

[Zanas]

To be clear to y'all, there will not be a "Nupes group", regardless of result and of how well they all get along. It was stated in the pact that each one would get to establish their own group, and it looks very likely they will be able to, so there will be an LFI group (80-120 seats), an EELV group (20-40 seats), a PS group (25-40 seats), and most certainly a PCF+overseas group like the outgoing GDR, which is the most at risk, but PCF should save their 11, reconquer a couple, and get a couple overseas more to reach 15.

They have, however, agreed to present Mélenchon to a vote for PM, whether they are a majority or not, and on a couple quite loose programmatic points. Other than that, it's mostly game.

[Zanas]

Stanislas Guérini seems gone.

Wait no not sure actually

[Zanas]

Meyer Habib just lost, which is satisfying on a number of levels.