2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Zanas]

Tbh I'm starting to get nervous about AZ with what we're seeing in FL and GA...

[Zanas]

Florida SWUNG right. How is this possible?

Well Florida is very much the Donald Trump of states.

[Zanas]

Well NYT called NM for Biden immediately so there's that.

[Zanas]

Is the CNN site also crashing for you ? NYT and DDHQ are working just fine but CNN is crashing like hell.

Also what do you make from Biden still ahead in KS with more than half counted ? Mainly EV counted thus far ?

[Zanas]

The ticket splitting in RI seems insane !

[Zanas]

So broadly speaking we're seeing a 3-4 pt polling error in favor of Trump, aren't we? Should still be enough for WI-MI, but I'm very very very nervous about PA.

Also, for now NE-01 seems better for Dems than NE-02, am I missing something here ?

[Zanas]

I don't know if DDHQ know something the others don't, but Gideon has greatly improved there and is within reasonable striking distance of Collins with RCV

[Zanas]

How the F#CK do you look at the last four years, and especially this year, and say "yeah i want more of this"

Stockholm syndrom inside a death cult

[Zanas]

Peterson’s lost.

As expected. Peterson, Shalala, Mucrasel-Powell, Horn, Finkenauer, Torres-Small...all have lost reelection. And Cunningham looks like he is in trouble as well. How is Jared Golden faring?

I'm repeating this question, especially since Biden is "only" up by 7% in Maine and Susan Collins is holding her own against Gideon before RCV.

Golden is up 53-46 for now, with 51% in

[Zanas]

For now in the House the GOP picks up 5 seats and the Dems pick up 2 seats, so a net loss of 3...

[Zanas]

Well I'm starting to not feel particularly optimistic for Biden in WI and PA. Only path may be NV-MI-GA, if NV even holds...

[Zanas]

Does someone have any idea on what to expect from the outstanding votes in NC ? How many are there? Where do they come from? What are they (EV ? ED ? mix ?) ?

[Zanas]

In WI 30% of Kenosha county is also still out and it's presently 60-38 for Trump...

[Zanas]

Many of y'all appear to be forgetting the concept of the "Red Mirage".

PA, WI, and MI are the exact reverse of that, where once again DEM Cities in Swing States in the Midwest are the last to turn out the vote.

Keep Calm, don't panic, fundamental numbers look good in all three States (Plus we got AZ and NE-02 and possibly GA & NC as backups).

Work Swing Shift West Coast, so nowhere close to crash yet tonight.

Is NC not already gone?

Is it?

Says who?

Trump only up 77k by NYT numbers and plenty of votes outstanding (Most likely heavily DEM).

Not to nitpick my friend, but I'm highly curious. What's the latest word on what votes are out there in NC? Numbers? Sources? Presumably all mail in ballots

I mean, you can look yourself at the outstanding votes.
A large chunk of them are in Orange County.

Where exactly can I see this? We have any numbers on how many votes are still outstanding?

Well on MSNBC or CNN you can know what's the % reporting. I'm never sure what exactly that measures, if it's precincts or votes, but it gives you an indication.

[Zanas]

Can somebody give me an unbiased, unemotional overview of the situation in Nevada right now? I'm feeling worried about it but I'm not entirely sure what's going on there.

Most outstanding votes, in raw numbers, are in Clark and Washoe, and while Washoe is very underwhelming for Biden, the outstanding votes everywhere seem to be prominently early votes and not E-day votes. So the margin should tick back up a bit. Biden should win this by 1-2 pt in the end, which is obviously appalling.

[Zanas]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but its almost a certainty that Biden is getting at least a comfortable majority of the outstanding Nevada mail ballots, right?

Yes, but "certainty" and "comfortable" are two words that have lost meaning forever for us left-leaning election geeks after tonight...

[Zanas]

Oh my goodness Peters is back 36,000 behind

[Zanas]

So Biden is extending his lead in MI while James is exetending his. Ticket splitters were a real thing this election, not necessarily by sheer numbers, but decisive.