Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET)

[Zanas]

Where are our numbers coming from ? Who is actually pblishing an entrance poll and where ?

[Zanas]

65% respondents of that entrance poll were first-time caucus-goers ! That's yuge !

Still, notice that the sample is 379, so 5.0 MoE.

[Zanas]

I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last primary cycle with caucuses, with the disasters in IA and NV.

And with the US's inertia, I would be surprised if they weren't still there in 50 years.

[Zanas]

These entrance polls have a margin of error of like 10%.

Well, no actually. First sample was 379, 5.0 MoE. Now they have a larger sample of 627, MoE of 3.9. It could be a little more trustworthy, though not much.

[Zanas]

Ok, so the entrance polls are now suddenly supposed to be accurate when Sanders is in the lead? Ok....

Novody said that. They just have a larger sample. That doesn't mean they are not off.

[Zanas]

The entrance poll gives Sanders 49.6 - Clinton 47.4 at the moment. I know you don't like decimals, but I'm giving them to you anyway.

Still, this is only a poll, and things can go both ways. But I'd rather be in the Sanders camp than the Clinton camp right now.

[Zanas]

Just a reminder... Nobody has checked my voter registration.

The temporary precinct chair just announced that the permanent precinct chair failed to show up.  He just held a voice vote to make himself the permanent chair.  (Unanimous, though nobody knows who he is.)

That is hilarious. We should compile all your posts in this thread at the end of the day, and make it a "Why the US suck" leaflet. It would have massive success.

[Zanas]

There's really no point in waiting for the actual numbers. The entrance polls look fairly solid. Sanders will win. I guess free everything is enough to sway voters.

Not sure if sarcasm or... If not, lol no.

[Zanas]

Is this what political nerds do on a Saturday caucus?

Could be worse. It's 10PM here in Paris, and I'm at home in front of my computer...

[Zanas]

The entrance poll was updated to a 943 sample, with a 3.2 MoE. It now points to Clinton 48.4, Sanders 47.8, something like that.

[Zanas]

By my admittedly rough calculations on the entrance poll, Clinton has to be winning Blacks/Asian/Others 63-37 for the White and Latino numbers to match. Pretty good showing for Bernie if true.

[Zanas]

Fox entrance poll - Latinos (20% of the vote) 54-43% Sanders
Independents 75-20% Sanders

I think there's only one entrance poll and everyone is using it.

[Zanas]

F**king entrance poll giving me false hopes. F**k it.

You should know better by now. In general, and particularly in 2016.

[Zanas]

Does anyone have a CNN livestream? The official site won't work because I'm not an American.

Looking it here : http://www.zahitvstation.com/watch-cnn-usa-live

[Zanas]

I left a few mins ago, btw

How did it end up?

My precinct was 39-31 to Bernie, so 8 delegates to 7.

The other precinct in the same room was 23-22 to Hillary, so 4 delegates to 3.

That's what makes caucus counting delegates important. Though Sanders had more votes in total, the way they split made it even in delegates. If I shifted two votes to Clinton in Joe's precinct, and two votes to Sanders in the other precinct, then Sanders comes out with a net two delegate margin, instead of even.

That's true, though the same thing can be said about any other sized constituency.

[Zanas]

The Clinton margin is ever so slowly rising, at 3.6 pts now. She's probably winning it today. But that was close. And of course the media is going to compare this closeness to where Sanders was polling at a year ago. Just as Trump on the GOP side, their arrival just proved that people badly wanted things to get shaken up.

[Zanas]

hillary must be getting like 90% of black vote/

No. More like 65-70.

[Zanas]

@Nate_Cohn 3m3 minutes ago Washington, DC

The majority Hispanic precincts in east Las Vegas generally look good for Clinton, contra exit polls.

Interesting...

I think the more I see, the more I think the entrance poll was was off, badly

Well, hate to sound like a broken record here, but no. What we're getting now was within its margin of error. Plus, what we're seeing now are delegates, not actual votes. Entrance polls poll actual voters. It's entirely possible that Sanders performed better than 52-48 in actual voters, and just got a slightly unfair share of delegates for these actual votes.

[Zanas]

Just so things are clear. The entrance poll had a 943 sample. 20% of that sample was Latino, so 189 people. The MoE among this subsample is 7.1. So the scores among Latino actually mean :
Sanders between 46.9 and 61.1
Clinton between 35.9 and 50.1

So, in this poll, it's probable that Sanders was ahead of Clinton, but not actually certain. A fortiori, among the entire electorate, we're not sure about anything. But as things are going, I'd still say Bernie has at least tied Clinton among Latino, and a good chance that he actually beat her, a thing all Clinton fans guaranteed us couldn't happen a few weeks ago.

[Zanas]

It's sad that there was only one entrance poll, and it will be the only reality everyone remembers from now on. I'm sure most people will keep on saying that Sanders won Latinos by 11, when it's clearly not what happened, I stand corrected. He probably came somewhat close, but not won them. But in the coming months and years, all we have to refer ourselves to will be that only entrance poll.

[Zanas]

So the entrance poll just got rectified once more with a bunch more respondents, making for a 1024 sample. Final demographic breakdown is :
Whites 59% : Sanders 49-47
Blacks 13% : Clinton 76-22
Latino 19% : Sanders 53-45
Asian 4% : subsample too small
Other 4% : subsample too small

By my calculations among gender, income or other near 50-50 splits, the final entrance poll scores are Clinton 50.8 - Sanders 46.3. Which, when you count away the uncommitted and look at the horse race, is actually 52.3-47.7, pretty exactly where the results are right now. So it seems that the delegate allocation didn't advantage either candidate.

[Zanas]

MSNBC sticking to the idea that Bernie won Latinos.

How does that work mathematically?

Well, not that bad actually. You have to assume that Asian+Other, 8% of the electorate, went Clinton 50-48. Who knows who ends up in Other ? I know I would, refusing to identify myself as any race, but I don't know in reality who are these people. Anyway, that's not too foolish an assumption to make, is it ?

[Zanas]

Turnout was 80000 people. In 2008 it was 120000.
Bernie's revolution doesn't seem to be going very well.

Well young turnout was actually up, and black turnout actually down, so not sure what you are saying. Sure, it didn't end up enough for him to win, but Clinton's firewall was underwhelming at best.

[Zanas]

I'm pretty far from a Sanders support, as I've said before, but the race is still far from over or noncompetitive now.

It is going to be competitive in the way a 7-5 7-6 6-4 tennis match is competitive and not competitive like a five set tennis match that finishes 10-8 in the fifth.

A few Iowas and New Hampshires more and Bernie becomes the Mahut to Clinton's Isner

[Zanas]

52.4-47.5 right now. Rounding all this to 53-47 at the end would seem a bit unfair, but hey.