What happened to Obama in Appalachia?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It was largely because of coal mining and because of Obama's far-left politics.  Race had nothing to do with it.  Remember that the "hillbillies" in Appalachia got their name because they remained loyal to the Union ("Billy Yanks") during the Civil War.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It was largely because of coal mining and because of Obama's far-left politics.  Race had nothing to do with it.  Remember that the "hillbillies" in Appalachia got their name because they remained loyal to the Union ("Billy Yanks") during the Civil War.

Exactly. Obama won this election thanks to racist Southerners (not Appalachians) and clueless blacks who don't know that the Democrat Party was the party of slavery. His best state, after all, was Alabama (99.97%). Romney got something like 80% in the freedom-loving state of Vermont.

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics, my friends.  Let me explain what I meant.  In Northern Appalachia, Obama was considered to hostile to coal, so they trended Republican.  In the rest of Appalachia, Obama was considered too far-left (since those areas are very socially conservative), so they trended Republican.  Remember that Doug Wilder got a significant percentage of support from rural Southern Virginia when he ran for governor of that state in 1989.  Granted, Hillary Clinton probably would have done better, but that's because she would have been considered more moderate and also because of Bill's popularity in Appalachia (he may not have won there, but he had enough support to make himself the last Democrat to date to carry many of those states in a presidential contest.)

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It was largely because of coal mining and because of Obama's far-left politics.  Race had nothing to do with it.  Remember that the "hillbillies" in Appalachia got their name because they remained loyal to the Union ("Billy Yanks") during the Civil War.

Exactly. Obama won this election thanks to racist Southerners (not Appalachians) and clueless blacks who don't know that the Democrat Party was the party of slavery. His best state, after all, was Alabama (99.97%). Romney got something like 80% in the freedom-loving state of Vermont.

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics, my friends.  Let me explain what I meant.  In Northern Appalachia, Obama was considered to hostile to coal, so they trended Republican.  In the rest of Appalachia, Obama was considered too far-left (since those areas are very socially conservative), so they trended Republican.  Remember that Doug Wilder got a significant percentage of support from rural Southern Virginia when he ran for governor of that state in 1989.  Granted, Hillary Clinton probably would have done better, but that's because she would have been considered more moderate and also because of Bill's popularity in Appalachia (he may not have won there, but he had enough support to make himself the last Democrat to date to carry many of those states in a presidential contest.)

Please explain how Obama is significantly further left than John Kerry, who did nowhere near as bad in the region. And that also doesn't explain the areas that swung to Obama heavily in 2008, do you think Indiana and North Dakota were attracted to his "far left" politics?

No, but people were ready to vote for any Democrat after Bush.  And Obama was much further to the left of Kerry on social issues (especially abortion), as well as having been named the most liberal Senator in America by National Journal.  Sound like he was pretty far-left to me, and probably more so than Kerry.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The swing in 2008 was a mix of racist sentiment, Hillary butthurt, and coal. In 2012 it was almost entirely coal (if not for the Clintons, I suspect Obama would have fared even worse in Appalachia).

Obama and Kerry have the exact same position on abortion.  Where are you even getting this?

In fact, Obama ran to the right of Kerry in 2008 on gun control (see D.C. handgun ban ruling) and capital punishment (Kerry opposed it except for terrorists, while Obama also favored it for murderers and repeat child rapists).  Of course this is offset with progress made on alleviating the cocaine / crack sentencing disparity, repealing DADT, a more humanitarian immigration policy, etc., but it is not as though Obama was running as somehow more 'liberal' than Kerry.  The reason these areas swung against him was largely discomfort with the cultural image he would project in representing the United States.  We saw rural dixiecratic Tennessee massively swing towards Romney this year, after a huge swing to McCain.  Indeed, given that all of these areas, especially coal country, have been swinging and trending Republican in every election since 2000, it can only be assumed that whether or not a new Democratic candidate has some slight deviation to the prior standard-bearer's orthodoxy, the voters in these places are not going to suddenly become more receptive.

First, how do you prove that Appalachia is as racist as it might have been in the past?  And secomd, Obama was the only State Senator in Illinois to oppose the Born Alive Infant Protection Act.  That sounds pretty far-left on abortion to me.  And even if he wasn't further left than Kerry, he was perceives that way.  And what is "rural Dixiecratic Tennessee?"  Most of the Appalachian regions in Tennessee are heavily Republican and have been since the Civil War.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I seriously have a tough time believing that some Illinois State Senate bill I have not heard of until now was the reason for such a swing in 2008. It never came up in the campaign.

Take a look at the county swing maps, Appalachia CLEARLY stands out. There were plenty of socially conservative areas to swing heavily to Obama, Upper South and Appalachia are the exceptions, these also voted heavily against Obama in the primary. The reason becomes kind of obvious. Stating that this was simply due to Obama being far to the left of Kerry is not only based on inaccurate premise but doesn't hold up everywhere, it's almost as bad as J. J.'s argument for the Bradley Effect.

Yes, that bill did come up.  Gianna Jessen did an ad for a pro-life organization in 2008 about it.