What happened to Obama in Appalachia?

[Beet]

I just noticed that the total Democratic Presidential vote in West Virginia in 2012 was the lowest since 1920. It was an utter collapse. It seems some similar things also occurred in Appalachian counties in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Kentucky. Is the region really that depressed due to natural gas supplanting coal, and this causes them to vote anti-incumbent?

[morgieb]

Yeah the big swing was down to Obama being seen as anti-coal.

[Beet]

Yeah the coal areas were where there was the biggest change. If these people are relying on coal, they better start thinking about diversifying...

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also Obama is, you know,  black.

[Franzl]

Also Obama is, you know,  black.

Yeah but he was black four years ago too.

[badgate]

Coal miners are gullible and susceptible to transparent Republican baiting because instead of going to school they go to work in mines?

That's the tacky elitist answer.

[Beet]

I guess part of the reason this surprised me is, I didn't think there were all that many coal miners left. The decline of coal mines is such an old story that the movement of people out of places like Mingo county and to Ohio, the Washington D.C. suburbs and Baltimore is often called the Second Great Migration and goes back to the early 1950s. West Virginia only has about 20,000-25,000 coal miners left. Compare that to the roughly 650k votes that were cast in the state. Even if you include spouses, this is 5-10% of the state's voting population defining its entire political culture? And that assumes 100% turnout among coal miners. Plus, I read somewhere that the number of coal mining jobs in the state actually slightly increased from 2008 to 2012.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also Obama is, you know,  black.

Yeah but he was black four years ago too.

And Appalachia swung Republican even back then, in contrast to the rest of the country.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Also Obama is, you know,  black.

Yeah but he was black four years ago too.

And Appalachia swung Republican even back then, in contrast to the rest of the country.

The Democrats started to collapse in Appalachia in 2000.

[DINGO Joe]

In 1952, WV cast 870,000 votes for President and had 8 electoral votes, This year it cast 670,000 and had 5 EVs, after 2020 Census it will have 4 Evs.

[Forsyth]

I just returned from a trip to Southeastern Kentucky and I was surprised at how important coal still appears to be there.  Many cars had pro-coal bumper stickers, with 'If you don't like coal, don't use electricity' particularly popular.  Cashiers in convenience stores had 'I support coal' buttons.  The state has an official 'Friends of Coal' license plate.  A billboard for a lawyer boasted that she was a coal miner's daughter.  Supporting coal seems to be a way to show support for their local communities. 

One county I made sure to visit was Knott County, Kentucky, where 92% of the registered voters are Democrats, yet Obama received 25% of the vote, 20 points less than in 2008.  The county used to be so Democratic that two-thirds voted for McGovern in 1972 and President Reagan didn't even get 30% there in 1984.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also Obama is, you know,  black.

Yeah but he was black four years ago too.

And Appalachia swung Republican even back then, in contrast to the rest of the country.

The Democrats started to collapse in Appalachia in 2000.

They started to decline. But Obama absolutely cratered, even with an out-of-touch Mormon millionaire from Massachusetts as his opponent. 

[Alcon]

I just returned from a trip to Southeastern Kentucky and I was surprised at how important coal still appears to be there.  Many cars had pro-coal bumper stickers, with 'If you don't like coal, don't use electricity' particularly popular.  Cashiers in convenience stores had 'I support coal' buttons.  The state has an official 'Friends of Coal' license plate.  A billboard for a lawyer boasted that she was a coal miner's daughter.  Supporting coal seems to be a way to show support for their local communities. 

One county I made sure to visit was Knott County, Kentucky, where 92% of the registered voters are Democrats, yet Obama received 25% of the vote, 20 points less than in 2008.  The county used to be so Democratic that two-thirds voted for McGovern in 1972 and President Reagan didn't even get 30% there in 1984.

Welcome to the forum.  The fact that you visited a county based on election results suggests you're going to be very well-respected here

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think there's been a demographic shift just in the past 4 years. Obama's supporters tend to be younger. If you're 22, what reason is there for staying in one of those counties instead of moving to Columbus or Louisville?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Very low Democratic turnout (Wyoming County, WV, had 38% turnout and went from 54% Gore to 77% Romney) thanks to the coal barons' propaganda. Sadly there are a lot of Democrats who hate Obama and would vote for Romney anyway, but if turnout in southern WV/eastern KY were at the national average, Obama would have done much better (maybe he would have won more than Elliot).

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It was largely because of coal mining and because of Obama's far-left politics.  Race had nothing to do with it.  Remember that the "hillbillies" in Appalachia got their name because they remained loyal to the Union ("Billy Yanks") during the Civil War.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Remember that the "hillbillies" in Appalachia got their name because they remained loyal to the Union ("Billy Yanks") during the Civil War.

Very relevant as usual, Oldies.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

It was largely because of coal mining and because of Obama's far-left politics.  Race had nothing to do with it.  Remember that the "hillbillies" in Appalachia got their name because they remained loyal to the Union ("Billy Yanks") during the Civil War.

Exactly. Obama won this election thanks to racist Southerners (not Appalachians) and clueless blacks who don't know that the Democrat Party was the party of slavery. His best state, after all, was Alabama (99.97%). Romney got something like 80% in the freedom-loving state of Vermont.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It was largely because of coal mining and because of Obama's far-left politics.  Race had nothing to do with it.  Remember that the "hillbillies" in Appalachia got their name because they remained loyal to the Union ("Billy Yanks") during the Civil War.

Exactly. Obama won this election thanks to racist Southerners (not Appalachians) and clueless blacks who don't know that the Democrat Party was the party of slavery. His best state, after all, was Alabama (99.97%). Romney got something like 80% in the freedom-loving state of Vermont.

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics, my friends.  Let me explain what I meant.  In Northern Appalachia, Obama was considered to hostile to coal, so they trended Republican.  In the rest of Appalachia, Obama was considered too far-left (since those areas are very socially conservative), so they trended Republican.  Remember that Doug Wilder got a significant percentage of support from rural Southern Virginia when he ran for governor of that state in 1989.  Granted, Hillary Clinton probably would have done better, but that's because she would have been considered more moderate and also because of Bill's popularity in Appalachia (he may not have won there, but he had enough support to make himself the last Democrat to date to carry many of those states in a presidential contest.)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I guess part of the reason this surprised me is, I didn't think there were all that many coal miners left. The decline of coal mines is such an old story that the movement of people out of places like Mingo county and to Ohio, the Washington D.C. suburbs and Baltimore is often called the Second Great Migration and goes back to the early 1950s. West Virginia only has about 20,000-25,000 coal miners left. Compare that to the roughly 650k votes that were cast in the state. Even if you include spouses, this is 5-10% of the state's voting population defining its entire political culture? And that assumes 100% turnout among coal miners. Plus, I read somewhere that the number of coal mining jobs in the state actually slightly increased from 2008 to 2012.

If there is a major industry that people identify their area with, they will usually be interested in voting to keep that industry there even if they don't work for it.  First is for historical reasons - people habituate to thinking of their area and their community in a certain way, and still want the jobs their fathers and grandfathers had to be there even if they don't have it themselves. People also sometimes overestimate the number of people still employed in an industry in these cases.   And if these jobs are lost, they expect (to some extent rightly) unemployment generally to go up, wages to go down, and everything that goes with that.

[they don't love you like i love you]

It was largely because of coal mining and because of Obama's far-left politics.  Race had nothing to do with it.  Remember that the "hillbillies" in Appalachia got their name because they remained loyal to the Union ("Billy Yanks") during the Civil War.

Exactly. Obama won this election thanks to racist Southerners (not Appalachians) and clueless blacks who don't know that the Democrat Party was the party of slavery. His best state, after all, was Alabama (99.97%). Romney got something like 80% in the freedom-loving state of Vermont.

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics, my friends.  Let me explain what I meant.  In Northern Appalachia, Obama was considered to hostile to coal, so they trended Republican.  In the rest of Appalachia, Obama was considered too far-left (since those areas are very socially conservative), so they trended Republican.  Remember that Doug Wilder got a significant percentage of support from rural Southern Virginia when he ran for governor of that state in 1989.  Granted, Hillary Clinton probably would have done better, but that's because she would have been considered more moderate and also because of Bill's popularity in Appalachia (he may not have won there, but he had enough support to make himself the last Democrat to date to carry many of those states in a presidential contest.)

Please explain how Obama is significantly further left than John Kerry, who did nowhere near as bad in the region. And that also doesn't explain the areas that swung to Obama heavily in 2008, do you think Indiana and North Dakota were attracted to his "far left" politics?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It was largely because of coal mining and because of Obama's far-left politics.  Race had nothing to do with it.  Remember that the "hillbillies" in Appalachia got their name because they remained loyal to the Union ("Billy Yanks") during the Civil War.

Exactly. Obama won this election thanks to racist Southerners (not Appalachians) and clueless blacks who don't know that the Democrat Party was the party of slavery. His best state, after all, was Alabama (99.97%). Romney got something like 80% in the freedom-loving state of Vermont.

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics, my friends.  Let me explain what I meant.  In Northern Appalachia, Obama was considered to hostile to coal, so they trended Republican.  In the rest of Appalachia, Obama was considered too far-left (since those areas are very socially conservative), so they trended Republican.  Remember that Doug Wilder got a significant percentage of support from rural Southern Virginia when he ran for governor of that state in 1989.  Granted, Hillary Clinton probably would have done better, but that's because she would have been considered more moderate and also because of Bill's popularity in Appalachia (he may not have won there, but he had enough support to make himself the last Democrat to date to carry many of those states in a presidential contest.)

Please explain how Obama is significantly further left than John Kerry, who did nowhere near as bad in the region. And that also doesn't explain the areas that swung to Obama heavily in 2008, do you think Indiana and North Dakota were attracted to his "far left" politics?

No, but people were ready to vote for any Democrat after Bush.  And Obama was much further to the left of Kerry on social issues (especially abortion), as well as having been named the most liberal Senator in America by National Journal.  Sound like he was pretty far-left to me, and probably more so than Kerry.

[Badger]

It was largely because of coal mining and because of Obama's far-left politics.  Race had nothing to do with it.  Remember that the "hillbillies" in Appalachia got their name because they remained loyal to the Union ("Billy Yanks") during the Civil War.

Exactly. Obama won this election thanks to racist Southerners (not Appalachians) and clueless blacks who don't know that the Democrat Party was the party of slavery. His best state, after all, was Alabama (99.97%). Romney got something like 80% in the freedom-loving state of Vermont.

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics, my friends.  Let me explain what I meant.  In Northern Appalachia, Obama was considered to hostile to coal, so they trended Republican.  In the rest of Appalachia, Obama was considered too far-left (since those areas are very socially conservative), so they trended Republican.  Remember that Doug Wilder got a significant percentage of support from rural Southern Virginia when he ran for governor of that state in 1989.  Granted, Hillary Clinton probably would have done better, but that's because she would have been considered more moderate and also because of Bill's popularity in Appalachia (he may not have won there, but he had enough support to make himself the last Democrat to date to carry many of those states in a presidential contest.)

Please explain how Obama is significantly further left than John Kerry, who did nowhere near as bad in the region. And that also doesn't explain the areas that swung to Obama heavily in 2008, do you think Indiana and North Dakota were attracted to his "far left" politics?

No, but people were ready to vote for any Democrat after Bush.  And Obama was much further to the left of Kerry on social issues (especially abortion), as well as having been named the most liberal Senator in America by National Journal.  Sound like he was pretty far-left to me, and probably more so than Kerry.

Can your proctologist treat a bad case of talking out one's ass?

[Ebowed]

Obama and Kerry have the exact same position on abortion.  Where are you even getting this?

In fact, Obama ran to the right of Kerry in 2008 on gun control (see D.C. handgun ban ruling) and capital punishment (Kerry opposed it except for terrorists, while Obama also favored it for murderers and repeat child rapists).  Of course this is offset with progress made on alleviating the cocaine / crack sentencing disparity, repealing DADT, a more humanitarian immigration policy, etc., but it is not as though Obama was running as somehow more 'liberal' than Kerry.  The reason these areas swung against him was largely discomfort with the cultural image he would project in representing the United States.  We saw rural dixiecratic Tennessee massively swing towards Romney this year, after a huge swing to McCain.  Indeed, given that all of these areas, especially coal country, have been swinging and trending Republican in every election since 2000, it can only be assumed that whether or not a new Democratic candidate has some slight deviation to the prior standard-bearer's orthodoxy, the voters in these places are not going to suddenly become more receptive.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The swing in 2008 was a mix of racist sentiment, Hillary butthurt, and coal. In 2012 it was almost entirely coal (if not for the Clintons, I suspect Obama would have fared even worse in Appalachia).

Elliott County is now the only county left (outside of maybe some South Texas counties) that has never voted Republican. Obama held on here by a 49-46 margin; based on my brief research, it's very small and very poor. Oddly, the area had a big swing towards Kerry in 2004.