50% wins nationwide. There will be some third-party or independent nominee on some right-leaning Party who can cut into the usual R vote enough that the structural advantage for Republicans in thin the Electoral College (which made the difference in 2000 and 2016) will not be enough. A 5.8% advantage is more than the Obama-Romney spread in 2016. 9%? That's more than the Bush-Dukakis spread in 1988.
A fake moderate like McMullin would steal some Democratic votes. McMullin is a hardline fiscal conservative and neocon, but he isn't frothing at the mouth like Trump so he seems moderate.
