Are we underestimating Dean Heller's chances of re-election?

[Maxwell]

no.

but we might be underestimating the ability of the Democratic party to take defeat out of the jaws of victory.

Still, Heller is in a uniquely weak position - his state voted for Clinton, he's dramatically under-performing his opponent in terms of fundraising, he voted for both of the controversial GOP bills that came through, and had to shift right thanks to a primary challenge that was only abandoned because President Trump told the other guy to do something else. Heller is the most vulnerable incumbent by a long shot.

To me, I think Heller is decisively behind - I think it'll be a matter of whether it's close or not particularly close (which is between a 3 point loss and a 9 point loss, since Nevada seems to be kind of inelastic for Democrats but very elastic for Republicans)