Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread

[Maxwell]

Conway (D) - 49%
Bevin (R) - 48%
Curtis (I) - 3%

[Maxwell]

I'm surprised by how poorly everyone seems to think Curtis will do in the election.

Third Party candidates ALWAYS flat-line hard on election day.

[Maxwell]

Okay let's look into the other races

52% Beshear
48% Westerfield

51% Grimes
49% Knipper

52% Harmon
48% Edelen

55% Ball
45% Nelson

58% Quarles
42% Spann

Those are my predictions. I think non-Conway democrats will significantly underperform the polls.

[Maxwell]

The fact that Bevin ran such a disastrous campaign and Conway didn't wrap it up because of that, shows that Democrats should never run Jack Conway for anything ever again. Every time I heard him speak or see him, it made me think of a cardboard cut out of a politician, and every position he took was just craven.

And Bevin may just carry Mike Harmon with him and end Adam Edelen's career. Wow. Grimes isn't even winning by much, and from what I've heard, Steve Knipper was basically a joke candidate.

[Maxwell]

How was the polling so wrong?

The real question is: How was the "election" so wrong?

As if it wasn't obvious before, time to ignore your analysis of Kentucky elections forever.

[Maxwell]

I will say, the last time it looked like doom for the Democrats forever in Kentucky, Ernie Fletcher turned out to be a huge disaster, so much so that Steve Beshear won by a huge 18 point margin. I suspect Matt Bevin won't be an Ernie Fletcher level disaster, but Bevin could be pretty brutal. And Kentucky Democrats won't think about running Jack Conway again.

If Andy Beshear wins his race, I think he's definitely the go to candidate.

[Maxwell]

Harmon is beating Edelen, Andy Beshear's lead is narrow as all hell, Grimes may be the only one who survives.

[Maxwell]

Talleyrand truly is a wunderkind when it comes to predicting these elections. Hot Damn!

[Maxwell]

As per Twitter, Adam Edelen has conceded the race to Mike Harmon. Congrats Rand Paul.

[Maxwell]

If Beshear loses, Congrats Matt Bevin's second term.

[Maxwell]

So Andy Beshear is going to lead the Democrats to victory in 2019, correct?

[Maxwell]

KY votes more like TN now, than its Appalachian counterparts. Dems are no longer electable in KY, statewide, but in local elections.

It appears to be trending that way, but it hasn't fallen to Tennessee levels quite yet.

Kentucky still has two statewide officers, one of which I believe has a future if he runs the way his father ran.

[Maxwell]

If turnout is the problem, It has to be on the Democrats to make their people go to the polls. They can't just rely on "oh, Matt Bevin is such a terrible candidate, we got this!". It seems like a really weak excuse for losing elections to me, and if you keep making that excuse, it'll keep happening. 

[Maxwell]

How the f*** did Conway manage to win Rowan County?

I know this site's wet dream is a political world where poor, rural, Evangelical Whites make up all Republican votes and wealthy, educated, cosmopolitan post-grads (and of course the minorities they so graciously save) make up all Democratic votes, but that's simply not the case.  According to Wikipedia, that county is relatively poor and registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by an almost 3:1 margin ... Not exactly a shocking results.  Shows how lame Conway is as a candidate that he didn't win more counties like this, in fact.

You are so aggressive all the time, it seemed like gustaf was just asking a question.