IL/WI: Who is more vulnerable in 2016?

[Maxwell]

I'd say Johnson is more likely to lose, but Kirk has a much lower ceiling.

[Maxwell]

lol pbrower2a keeps reciting those stats when Rick Scott, Rick Snyder, Mitch McConnell, Pat Roberts, Sam Brownback, and countless others won re-election. Joke poster.

[Maxwell]

lol pbrower2a keeps reciting those stats when Rick Scott, Rick Snyder, Mitch McConnell, Pat Roberts, Sam Brownback, and countless others won re-election. Joke poster.

2016 is not 2014.

"2014 is not 2010"

2016 is a presidential year, not a midterm

Look - fair enough.

But even so, when you're so unbelievably wrong even in a midterm election, it's time to think about a new theory on approval ratings.

[Maxwell]

I voted for Johnson. Kirk is clearly vulnerable, but he has an amazing ability to win tough races, so I'm not counting him out. He's also very personable (I've met him in person) which certainly helps on the campaign trail.

That was more due to his incredible luck in drawing incompetent or deeply flawed opponents than his campaign skills.
Of course the jury is still out for Duckworth too when it comes to how formidable a candidate she is.

You don't go to the Northwest and Northern suburbs to find non-Jewish liberals en masse; Democrats shouldn't have as easy of a time the last two cycles as she did with that district, which voted for GWB twice and elected Henry Hyde time after time.

Melissa Bean, a Democrat, was the incumbent in the district before 2010.