How many incumbent Republican Senators get Tea Partied out?

[Maxwell]

It'll be Cochran. Alexander has had challenges like this before, and I feel like he can deal with it.

[Maxwell]

Cochran. He's in the low 40s this far out and Pubs want someone more conservative by a 20pp margin. Same numbers as Lugar. Cornyn and Enzi definitely not, Alexander maybe.

TX Republicans also want someone more conservative than Cornyn by a 20 point margin.

He's also ALREADY basically tied with his tea party challenger in most legitimate polls. McDaniels will probably beat Cochran if that's the case unless it turns out he did some comical infomercial scam like J.D. Hayworth or something equally ridiculous that ruins his credibility as a conservative challenge.

[Maxwell]

McDaniel has neo-Confederate associations, but that isn't exactly hurting him.

That doesn't hurt his conservative credentials, he still seems as conservative as before. J.D. Hayworth, on the other hand, was in an infomerical offering people free money! Also, I do not think Bevin will make it, because he asked the Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal for a bailout. Those kind of things hurt their conservative credentials.

[Maxwell]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

McDaniel could lose to Childers, but I think Mississippi is probably less elastic than Indiana and Missouri. Then again, I could just not know anything about Mississippi.