If you took these counties out and left the remaining deep-red rural counties in, Texas would very narrowly vote blue by a 10,000 vote margin.
Yeah, even though the blue area includes the RGV, that's more than canceled out by suburban swings. Flipping Zapata but losing Tarrant and Williamson is a terrible trade for the GOP. Even if Trump becomes the first ever Republican to win Starr, there's a real chance Biden wins Collin and maybe even Denton.
People very much overstate the importance of the RGV. It has 1.7 mil people (by a liberal definition), compared to 1.9 mil for Colin and Denton alone. Throw in Tarrant, Williamson, Hays, and Fort Bend, that's 1.7 mil compared to 5.7 mil, all trending towards Dems.
Plus the RGV still actually does vote Democratic.
