2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Sol]

Prediction for NC House primaries: Foushee wins the NC-04 primary by like 10-15 points, winning every county. Hope I'm wrong!

Allam will win some precincts in Durham--basically all of the heavily white ones plus the tiny one that has NC Central maybe. She'll probably also win in the more working class parts of Carrboro.

Clay Aiken will run a distant 3rd, doing best outside of Durham and Orange counties.

[Sol]

Do we think Cawthorn will lose?

Honestly I think he will.

[Sol]

Are we just gonna ignore that North Carolina has a "Transylvania County"?

One of the wettest places in the world, much of it is temperate rainforest. Brevard is a collegey town and also the Blackest place in WNC outside of Asheville, but otherwise it's very similar to Henderson except without the suburban aspect.

[Sol]

Prediction for NC House primaries: Foushee wins the NC-04 primary by like 10-15 points, winning every county. Hope I'm wrong!

Allam will win some precincts in Durham--basically all of the heavily white ones plus the tiny one that has NC Central maybe. She'll probably also win in the more working class parts of Carrboro.

Clay Aiken will run a distant 3rd, doing best outside of Durham and Orange counties.

I was right in terms of the margin, but it looks like I underestimated potential regional polarization. Allam won Durham by a decentish margin, really only losing in majority-Black precincts. Meanwhile Foushee did quite well in Orange County, though as expected her win was pretty regionally polarized--many precincts in Carrboro gave Allam thrashing victories. Clay Aiken did way worse than I thought, lol, ranking with the other no-hoper candidates running at 7.3%, but he was the second place finisher in most of the non-metropolitan counties.

The results in Chapel Hill/Carrboro are very indicative imo of local cultural and class divides in kind of an interesting way; if you wanted an election to really tell you where people in Carrboro and Chapel Hill stood ideologically this would be it.
-In central Chapel Hill, Allam won almost everywhere; she lost the precinct NS, which probably in the Blackest precinct in Chapel Hill proper. However, Allam's wins were almost always narrow, and given that Foushee actually won the early vote for this area narrowly, it's plausible that a few of these might flip if those votes were redistributed. Notably Allam only narrowly won the precinct UNC, which has the University of North Carolina campus and where the vast majority of voters are undergrads. This part of Chapel Hill is more upscale/gentrified so it being weaker for Allam makes sense; the students who live on campus are going to be younger and consequently closer to their parents' views, similar to how some on-campus precincts are more conservative than the surrounding area in big college towns like Madison. Ironically, one of Allam's best precincts in this areas was EA1, which is an extremely affluent leafy area to the east of UNC where a lot of professors and administrators live.
-Allam absolutely dominated in Carrboro, particularly in the less affluent/more studenty areas. Carrboro attracts a pretty granola set and although it's gentrifying it's still noticeably cheaper than central CH. OW1 was Allam's best precinct in the county; it has a lot of grad students but also a lot of quite cheap working-class housing (and iirc is the most Latino and Karen part of the city).
-Foushee dominated in suburban Chapel Hill, which is the more monied and less studenty part of the area. It's one of the most affluent areas of the state, in fact. The exception is along the 15-501 corridor, which has more apartments and cheaper housing.

[Sol]

Why did Barnette win Potter County?

Potter does have a reputation for far-right movements--I'm assuming the White Supremacists there aren't supporting Barnette but the local culture probably makes them well-disposed to the most right-wing candidate.

[Sol]

Wow looks like Bordeaux is screwed.

Good riddance.

What's so bad about Bordeaux? I know nothing about her other than she's a Gwinnett County Dem who won 62% of the GA-7 Asian voters polled by AALDEF in Nov 2020.

Sort of in a similar vein to Schrader, Bordeaux has taken a bunch of critical votes against Biden and has generally voted in a Blue Doggy manner.

[Sol]

If Malia Cohen wins the battle for CA controller (which looks very likely), might we be looking at Feinstein's successor?

Yes.

I think that’s gonna be Katie Porter TBH.

Newsom said an African-American woman.

Wait, why the hell would  Newsom make such a stupid pledge? African-American women are only ~3% of California's population.

People in the California Black political establishment were upset that Harris was replaced by Padilla.

[Sol]

Palin’s always been more pro-female candidates than not. She probably did put Peltola as her second choice, especially since the alternative was Begich.

Sincere "girlboss feminism" is a common trait among woman Republicans, but they tend to be somewhat quieter about it than woman Democrats.

Alaska Republicans are also pretty fractured between a right-populist wing and a more centrist, corrupt oil-tied wing, and Palin as Governor made common cause with Democrats against the latter.