2020 New York Redistricting

[Sol]

https://twitter.com/qlzsu/status/1679582626791735296

This is the obvious D gerrymander move in the area, but you have to finish it up by giving Goldman Chinatown so you can justify it as keeping the Chinese community together.

How do you think those Chinese areas would vote in a D primary?

Niou probably would have won a primary in such a district, but I suspect that as an incumbent Goldman would be fine.

[Sol]

I took a stab at a Hochulmander 2.0. A bit ugly and probably inefficient; would love to see if there's a neater way to upstate especially.

link




You could definitely also do the configuration Oryxslayer does; it just depends I guess if Goldman prefers Sunset Park and Bensonhurst or Staten Island.

[Sol]

Was thinking of the matter of the hypothetical Brooklyn Asian district and I wondered, why not a Queens-Nassau Asian district too? In this map, both the 4th and the 6th would be over 40% Asian. 1st is Biden+10 and 3rd is Biden+19.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a3dca293-e5fc-4fce-ab53-aaf34678fdd4

Asians form over 10% of the population of New York so proportionally one would have expected there to be three Asian-access districts.

Demographically those three districts are all quite heavily Asian-American, but Asian as a label encompasses a lot of very distinct groups. 4 and 10 are more heavily Chinese, but 6 is very diverse, with large Chinese, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, and Guyanese communities. Those areas may not necessarily feel the need to be included in one Asian access district if they have different political interests and establishments.

For whatever reason New Yorkers also seem to have a really intense negative reaction to crossing the Long Island-NYC line, which is something I don't really get but seems to be the case. I proposed a similar double dip into Nassau but it was not so well received.

[Sol]

9 might have too many liberal whites to be black functioning.

It's 47% black VAP, 33% white, and 14% Hispanic, which should be enough

What’s the partisanship of 10? - looks like it could be a bit iffy for Dems, but not a bad district in terms of COI

Clinton +24, Biden +18. 42% white VAP and 34% Asian.

Splitting Hempstead township 4 ways just feels wrong.

I was prioritizing the gerrymander over keeping townships intact!

Demographically those three districts are all quite heavily Asian-American, but Asian as a label encompasses a lot of very distinct groups. 4 and 10 are more heavily Chinese, but 6 is very diverse, with large Chinese, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi communities. Those areas may not necessarily feel the need to be included in one Asian access district if they have different political interests and establishments.

And I suppose here we see the disadvantage of DRA not separating between more specific groups.

For whatever reason New Yorkers also seem to have a really intense negative reaction to crossing the Long Island-NYC line, which is something I don't really get but seems to be the case. I proposed a similar double dip into Nassau but it was not so well received.

Given that Long Island is only entitled to 3.76 districts, it's necessary to cross that line somewhere of course, but I can see how going from 4 primarily Long Island based districts to only 3 might be something not everyone would be happy with.

This is my personal favorite configuration for Long Island; NY-04 here is only plurality Black (39% Black, 31% White, and 23% Latino) but almost certainly would be performing since white voters here are fairly Republican. This lets you put the rest of predominantly Black areas in SW Queens in with Jeffries's district, which has the knock-on effect of allowing for a Black influence coalition district in Brooklyn in addition to NY-09 and NY-08.

[Sol]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e04f3c40-a052-4df0-9149-2ef3ad95530f

How does this as a “soft” gerrymander look?

NY-01: Trump+6.8
NY-02: Biden+6.2
NY-03: Biden+8.1
NY-04: Biden+14.4
NY-11: Biden+0.6
NY-17: Biden+11.3
NY-18: Biden+11.1
NY-19: Biden+5.8
NY-22: Biden+11.3

It sure seems like Democrats are setting the groundwork for Staten Island-Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn Chinatown-Manhattan Chinatown districts, so I would maybe switch 10 and 11 for that.