What would happen if Mississippi became 50% black?

[Sol]

The white vote is nearly maxed out in MS for Republicans at 90%, but with a clear demographic threat from blacks they could vote 95% + for Republicans. If blacks went back to turning out at lower levels as they did pre Obama, Republicans could hold onto the state for the foreseeable future.

There are some deep southern congressional districts that are over 50 % Black but vote Republican due to turnout issues.

Not at all. Democrats hold every single majority black district. You're thinking of latin@s.

[Sol]

He probably meant counties.

IIRC the only county which votes like this West Feliciana County*. Which is only barely majority black due to Angola Prison, which obviously doesn't vote.

*I am vitriolically opposed to Lousiana's terrible system of county naming.

[Sol]

I think a truly 50-50 state would actually end up being more beneficial to Republicans in the long run.  Since the state would essentially be a toss-up based on current racial voting patterns it would probably start out as a turnout competition.  However it could evolve into a "vote stealing" operation where the GOP starts using Mississippi as a test lab for how to win more black voters.  Once they perfected their strategies they could take them nationwide and potentially decimate the current Democratic hold on black voters.

Even in MS about 10% of white voters are democrats, so even a minor increase in the GOP black vote wouldn't mean much.

[Sol]

It would still lean R due to turnout differentials.

No, not really. Even if African-Americans start returning to a pattern of substantially lower turnout than whites (not very likely, IMO) there is still a good 6%-7% of MS non-blacks who vote D, and these groups provide an extra cushion.

[Sol]

The white vote is nearly maxed out in MS for Republicans at 90%, but with a clear demographic threat from blacks they could vote 95% + for Republicans. If blacks went back to turning out at lower levels as they did pre Obama, Republicans could hold onto the state for the foreseeable future.

There are some deep southern congressional districts that are over 50 % Black but vote Republican due to turnout issues.

Not at all. Democrats hold every single majority black district. You're thinking of latin@s.

I see you don't understand the Spanish language. Mixed-gender groups default to male.

I am aware of that. But it is also my understanding that Spanish-speaking tumblr leftists use @ instead of <a> or <o> in writing, and since I am a tumblr leftist, I do the same.