Minnesota- Why can't the GOP get the job done there?

[Sol]

Being a "white" state doesn't automatically make it a Republican state.  Vermont (and most of New England) is pretty white too...

Outside of the South, the GOP doesn't rack up huge margins among white voters.

Minnesota is also fairly urban/suburban.

Although it should be noted that many, although not all, of MN's suburban areas are the bedrock of the state GOP.

[Sol]

Why is Northeast-North Central MN so Democratic? I guess that area is similar to some Democratic Farm Area's in Iowa term of voting.

Are you talking about the Duluth area? That's the Iron range.  It has a lot of union-oriented white democrats, plus some liberal types in the city of Duluth and in Cook County.

If you're talking about North-Central Minnesota, around Bemidji and such, I believe the area's democratic-ness comes from several major Indian reservations + a university in Bemidji. Of course, that corner of the world isn't that Democratic, although I believe Obama over-performed there in 2008 by a lot.

[Sol]

The difficulty with becoming more pro-union in MN is that it would hurt the GOP in the Twin City suburbs, so they really wouldn't actually gain votes.

[Sol]

Some questions:
-Why is Duluth so Liberal?
-What sociological trend makes people believe Wisconsin\Minn.\Mich. are up for grabs for the GOP? as I understand the region is generally Liberal socially along with a tradition of progressive politics

Duluth and the adjacent counties are historical bastions of organized labor- the entire area, known as the Iron Range has thusly been very Democratic. It's a bit like Northern Ohio, except more Democratic. Furthermore, I believe Duluth has become a bit of a liberal stronghold- a lot of hippie types.

There's been something of an idea (not really accurate) in U.S. political circles that white working class male voters in the Midwest are something of a swing demographic. In fact, the GOP strategy in this respect has pretty much been centered around conquering places like the Iron Range.
Also, these states have significant GOP-friendly areas anyway, so it make the margins close even without these voters.

[Sol]

Though given Democratic collapses - or at least dangerously steep declines - in other historical strongholds of labour power, it's no longer really enough to point out that the Iron Range is, indeed, a historical stronghold of labour power. The question to ask is why has it remained resilient - or at least comparatively resilient: we shouldn't forget what happened in 2010 -  while Greater Pittsburgh (say) hasn't?

Correct me if I'm wrong Al (which I almost certainly am- you certainly know more about these things than me), but it seems to me that the Democratic collapse in working class areas has be been pretty overstated. The Iron Range votes D, Scranton-Wilkes-Barre votes D, the mill towns of rural New England vote D- and that's not even including non-white areas like the black belt. It seems to me that the really huge declines have been concentrated in Central Appalachia, and I'd argue it's due to a perfect storm of factors- local social conservatism, decline in the local industries during a Democratic presidency, etc.

[Sol]

@ Al

The key issue you're missing is race. In Madison, Duluth and St. Paul, there is no racialized other to hate. In Toledo, Youngstown, Flint and Pontiac, there is a significant Black community that has prevented the erosion of the white Democratic vote.

I agree with you somewhat (albeit not on your examples- St. Paul is quite diverse, and Madison is more like Austin than Youngstown). It seems like race really plays a huge role in big multiethnic cities like NYC or Boston- think of places like Howard Beach.

[Sol]

@ Al

The key issue you're missing is race. In Madison, Duluth and St. Paul, there is no racialized other to hate. In Toledo, Youngstown, Flint and Pontiac, there is a significant Black community that has prevented the erosion of the white Democratic vote.

If you want to see a full white working class collapse map, look at 2010. Hideous, ghastly results in every city and state. Democrats actually lost very few votes among the "creative class", they were just massacred amongst downscale whites.

Is that because they specifically disliked Democrats or because they were angry at the status quo/powers that be/incumbents, who happened to be Democrats? How well did Republicans do among the white working class in 2006, when they were the incumbent party with targets all over their backs?

The Republicans won whites by 4%- 52-48 or 51-47% in 2006.

Although a lot of those Whites are conservative suburbanites.