Probably this but in this scenario Cal Cunningham beats Tillis and the Senate is 51-49 instead of 50-50. Also Biden does better in WI/MI/PA here so his win is more decisive
Seems about right. I assume that Joe Biden would have a better legislative record as well, as I think Joe Manchin would have been more malleable in a 51-49 Senate and might have flipped on issues like the fillibuster and DC statehood. I would guess that the Democrats would have maybe kept a few more House seats to allow them to have around a 225 or 230 majority in this scenario as well.
I would also say that Joe Biden would have performed somewhat better in the decisive states and probably marginally better in Texas, perhaps losing the state by a Gerald Ford 1976 or Richard Nixon 1960 style margin. Florida I still think would have went to Donald Trump by 3.4% regardless due to the favorable trends for the Republicans in the state as well as the fact that several hundred thousand people from states like New York and New Jersey moved to Florida in 2020 to escape COVID restrictions.
