2020 election if no George Floyd riots

[Alben Barkley]

Let's assume everything else is the same: COVID happens, Trump botches the response, Floyd himself is murdered but it doesn't lead to any rioting and looting. That was blamed by some for turning some suburban whites to stick with the perceived "law and order" Trump over voting for Biden. On the other hand, you could argue it contributed to a general atmosphere of chaos in 2020 that helped bring down Trump.

So what do you think would be different, if anything at all, if these riots don't happen?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Probably this but in this scenario Cal Cunningham beats Tillis and the Senate is 51-49 instead of 50-50. Also Biden does better in WI/MI/PA here so his win is more decisive

[Sir Mohamed]

Probably this but in this scenario Cal Cunningham beats Tillis and the Senate is 51-49 instead of 50-50. Also Biden does better in WI/MI/PA here so his win is more decisive

Is there any actual evidence that particulary affects the vote in NC?

Tbh, I think the difference would be marginal here, though Dems may hold a few more seats in the House.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably this but in this scenario Cal Cunningham beats Tillis and the Senate is 51-49 instead of 50-50. Also Biden does better in WI/MI/PA here so his win is more decisive

Seems about right. I assume that Joe Biden would have a better legislative record as well, as I think Joe Manchin would have been more malleable in a 51-49 Senate and might have flipped on issues like the fillibuster and DC statehood. I would guess that the Democrats would have maybe kept a few more House seats to allow them to have around a 225 or 230 majority in this scenario as well.

I would also say that Joe Biden would have performed somewhat better in the decisive states and probably marginally better in Texas, perhaps losing the state by a Gerald Ford 1976 or Richard Nixon 1960 style margin. Florida I still think would have went to Donald Trump by 3.4% regardless due to the favorable trends for the Republicans in the state as well as the fact that several hundred thousand people from states like New York and New Jersey moved to Florida in 2020 to escape COVID restrictions.

[bagelman]

Probably this but in this scenario Cal Cunningham beats Tillis and the Senate is 51-49 instead of 50-50. Also Biden does better in WI/MI/PA here so his win is more decisive

Is there any actual evidence that particulary affects the vote in NC?

Tbh, I think the difference would be marginal here, though Dems may hold a few more seats in the House.

It would be an overall uplifting of Biden, NC is impacted because it's the closest Trump state.

Biden would have his largest gains in MN, WI, MI, even OH (nowhere near enough to flip it though). AZ would be easier to call as well. The George Floyd riots unintentionally raised racial tension and division nationwide, so Biden does better with white voters here.

[Sir Mohamed]

Probably this but in this scenario Cal Cunningham beats Tillis and the Senate is 51-49 instead of 50-50. Also Biden does better in WI/MI/PA here so his win is more decisive

Is there any actual evidence that particulary affects the vote in NC?

Tbh, I think the difference would be marginal here, though Dems may hold a few more seats in the House.

It would be an overall uplifting of Biden, NC is impacted because it's the closest Trump state.

Biden would have his largest gains in MN, WI, MI, even OH (nowhere near enough to flip it though). AZ would be easier to call as well. The George Floyd riots unintentionally raised racial tension and division nationwide, so Biden does better with white voters here.

Fair enough, though Cunningham probably still loses narrowly after the texting scandal.