Outrage in Iran after woman dies in police custody after arrest over "improper" hijab

[MATTROSE94]

I am not saying this ever would happen, but wouldn't it be a crazy midterm shakeup if the October surprise is Iran and Russia both changing leaders?

I don't really see how that would affect US midterm elections, but it would be an astounding development as far as international news goes.

The widely hated Putin AND Ayatollah collapsing would likely help Biden a lot tbh.

Maybe.

A lot of the MAGA people would be upset if Putin was overthrown. Same with a lot of Iranian Americans born between 1985 and 1999 if Ayatollah Khamenei is overthrown.

[MATTROSE94]

Does there exist any polling on how popular these protests actually are?

80% of Iranians and a clear majority of Iranian Americans born between 1985 and 1999 are against these protests.

[MATTROSE94]

I still don’t think that the Iranian government is close to falling. A clear majority of Iranians are against these protests and want the IRGC and the Basij to start seriously cracking some skulls open. Granted, popular support for the Iranian government probably decreased from 75% down to about 60% if I had to guess. Once order is restored, public support in Iran for the government will go back up to around 90%.

[MATTROSE94]

I suppose the "basis" would be that "outside the big cities" most still support the regime.

Is that actually true, though?

No, there have been protests and attacks on government symbols, enforcers etc. in provincial areas as well.

That is interesting to know. I still don’t think that the Iranian government is close to falling and also think that China will send in around 500,000 People’s Liberation Army troops to Iran to help Ebrahim Raisi and the IRGC restore order. China losing influence over Iran would be the equivalent of California or New York leaving the US.

[MATTROSE94]

Do they even have that level of strategic transport capacity? That's a huge level of commitment.

I think China could conceivably move 500,000 troops to Iran utilizing aircraft and amphibious troop carriers. Xi will do everything conceivable to prevent the Iranian government from collapsing, as China will lose the buckle to the Belt and Road initiative if the Iranian government falls and Reza Pahlavi comes to power.

[MATTROSE94]

Do you think he'd actually come back as a constitutional monarch?

Also, how many people actually want the Pahlavis back?

I read a survey that pegged support for monarchy restoration in Iran at about 25%. About 56% support the Islamic Republic and 19% support a regular democracy.

[MATTROSE94]

Do they even have that level of strategic transport capacity? That's a huge level of commitment.

I think China could conceivably move 500,000 troops to Iran utilizing aircraft and amphibious troop carriers. Xi will do everything conceivable to prevent the Iranian government from collapsing, as China will lose the buckle to the Belt and Road initiative if the Iranian government falls and Reza Pahlavi comes to power.

Nonsense.

Do you think he'd actually come back as a constitutional monarch?

Also, how many people actually want the Pahlavis back?

The overwhelming majority of Iranians want them back, at least if you ask the monarchist exiles on twitter.

Most Iranian Americans born before 1985 of after 1999 and about 22% of Iranians. From my experience, most Iranian Americans born between 1985 and 1999 support the Islamic Republic moreso than their parents and largely want it to remain intact with some minor reforms like maybe having the Supreme Leader be an elected position or giving more rights to religious minorities and women. I am friends with an Iranian American woman born in 1991 who is aligned with the neoconservative wing of the Iranian Principlist movement despite not being super religious herself. My friend wants the Iranian government to brutally suppress the protests and launch major purges against ethnic and religious minorities in Iran.

I am unsure about the political views of Iranian Americans who came to the US before 1979, as only about 100,000 Iranian Americans lived in the US back then as opposed to the 3 million or so in the US today.

[MATTROSE94]

It looks like support for the Iranian government might be less than 50% now based on anecdotal evidence on Twitter and Instagram. What do you think is the likely scenario if the Iranian government collapses?

I envision a civil war lasting into 2030 with Reza Pahlavi, Masih Alinejad, and Amir-Abbas Fakhravar on one side and the remnants of the IRGC, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Iraqi Shi’a militias, and the Houthis on the other side. It also seems increasingly unlikely that China will intervene on Irans behalf and will instead start to cultivate a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia now that the US is on Saudi Arabia’s s***list over the oil production cut last month.

[MATTROSE94]

Holy crap, the regime is literally kidnapping and murdering young teenage girls. I seriously teared up some watching this...I have to believe that if there is any justice whatsoever left in our twisted timeline... That the ayatollah's days are numbered.

Woman, Life, Freedom indeed, both in Iran and the USA.
زن، زندگی، آزادی

That is brutal. I teared up watching this video as well. Hopefully, when Iran becomes a democracy, I will be able to travel there and meet a sweet and kind Iranian woman who will marry me.