Predictions as of June 2021

[MATTROSE94]

Alabama: Mo Brooks defeats Vivian Davis Figures (R Hold)

Alaska: Kelly Tshibaka, Lisa Murkowski, Al Gross and Sarah Palin advance from top-four primary. Sarah Palin defeats Lisa Murkowski, Al Gross and Kelly Tshibaka in General Election (R Hold)

Arizona: Mark Kelly defeats Mark Brnovich (D Hold)

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Jack Foster (R Hold)

California: Alex Padilla defeats Eleni Kounalakis (D Hold)

Colorado: Michael Bennet defeats John Cooke (D Hold)

Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Bob Stefanowski (D Hold)

Florida: Val Demings defeats Marco Rubio (D Gain)

Georgia: Herschel Walker defeats Raphael Warnock (R Gain)

Hawaii: Brian Schatz wins unopposed (D Hold)

Idaho: Mike Crapo defeats James Vandermaas (R Hold)

Illinois: Tammy Duckworth defeats Adam Kinzinger (D Hold)

Indiana: Todd Young defeats Thomas McDermott Jr. (R Hold)

Iowa: Pat Grassley defeats Abby Finkenauer (R Hold)

Kansas: Jerry Moran defeats Kathleen Sebelius (R Hold)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Charles Booker (R Hold)

Louisiana: John Kennedy defeats John Bel Edwards (R Hold)

Maryland: Chris Van Hollen defeats Boyd Rutherford (D Hold)

Missouri: Vicky Hartzler defeats Scott Sifton (R Hold)

Nevada: Catherine Cortez Masto defeats Adam Laxalt (D Hold)

New Hampshire: Chris Sununu defeats Maggie Hassan (R Gain)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Brett Yagel (D Hold)

North Carolina: Cheri Beasley defeats Pat McCrory (D Gain)

North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Michael Steele (R Hold)

Ohio: Tim Ryan defeats Josh Mandel (D Gain)

Oklahoma: James Lankford reelected unopposed (R Hold)

Oregon: Ron Wyden defeats Jo Rae Perkins (D Hold)

Pennsylvania: John Fetterman defeats Sean Parnell (D Gain)

South Carolina: Tim Scott defeats Krystie Matthews (R Hold)

South Dakota: John Thune defeats Billie Sutton (R Hold)

Utah: Mike Lee defeats Ben McAdams (R Hold)

Vermont: Patrick Leahy defeats David Zuckerman (no Republican candidate running, D Hold)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Matt Shea (D Hold)

Wisconsin: Ron Kind defeats Ron Johnson (D Gain)

Boy I wish that the Senate results were D+3. It is more likely going to be R+3 in the Senate and R+15-20 in the House of Representatives.

[MATTROSE94]

House: R+20 (233R-202D)
Senate: R+3 (AZ, NV, NH flip; Warnock is saved by the runoff)

Senate races within 5%: AZ, NV, NH, PA, WI, NC, GA (so the six closest states in US-PRES 2020 + NH)

I will add that this is on the R-friendly end of my range of plausible outcomes for 2022, and as you can see, several of these races are close enough that they could go D in a D overperformance nationally or a slightly D-leaning as opposed to just a slightly R-leaning environment. I am not expecting a 2010-type blowout at this point (there likely will be a bigger R wave if the D caucus really decides to ram through the vast majority of agenda items on the progressive 'wishlist', i.e., S 1, nuking the filibuster, implementing court-packing schemes, adding D.C., etc., but at this point it does not look like that will happen).

One thing that would surprise me is if Democrats managed to do well in the Senate races (or held the Senate, for that matter) while losing their House majority by a margin that cannot be described as razor-thin.

How do you account for this last poll had Kelly up by 10 pts

When the Democrat is at 48% in a swing state, the undecideds clearly lean Republican, perhaps not enough to get the Republican over the top, but Kelly isn't winning by 10 even against Kelli Ward. Anyways, you've followed elections long enough to know that early margins can be deceiving due to the high undecideds, does anyone remember TN 2018 or WI 2016? Early margins were deceiving in that race, and they'll be deceiving here too, even if Kelly has a way better chance of winning than Bredesen and probably (with hindsight) Feingold did.

OC used to post pretty accurate predictions up until 2012 or 2014, so I don’t know what changed in him. Maybe the stresses of law school and working as a mall security guard have gotten to him?

[MATTROSE94]

Forgot to add AK

lol. The Democrats aren’t winning Wisconsin, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire.

[MATTROSE94]

Forgot to add AK

lol. The Democrats aren’t winning Wisconsin, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire.

In your World, no, in my world yes it's a blog, I can predict anything, if the Rs can predict AZ, NV and WI going R, I can predict a Filibuster Proof majority

Not one poll show NV going R  and NV has a female state legislature like MA and NH does that's why CCM and Rosen will win

NV, WI, NH and NH doesn't even have voter Suppression

Atlas is not a blog. It is a political discussion forum.

[MATTROSE94]

Forgot to add AK

lol. The Democrats aren’t winning Wisconsin, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire.

In your World, no, in my world yes it's a blog, I can predict anything, if the Rs can predict AZ, NV and WI going R, I can predict a Filibuster Proof majority

Not one poll show NV going R  and NV has a female state legislature like MA and NH does that's why CCM and Rosen will win

NV, WI, NH and NH doesn't even have voter Suppression

Demings doesn't win with a record like hers. In fact in 2017 when Hurricane Irma hit Florida, Demings voted against the Disaster Tax Relief and Airport and Airway Extension Act of 2017 that provided tax relief for the victims of Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Harvey. That will doom Demings' senate chances just like Ted Cruz's attack against Beto O'Rourke for his vote against that same bill partly helped Cruz win re-election.

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2017/roll542.xml

https://www.congress.gov/115/plaws/publ63/PLAW-115publ63.pdf

Also Herschel Walker about to announce a senate bid and Chris Sununu doing the same after NH's legislative session will put the Democrats on defense, which will force them to put more money on more battleground seats rather than OH, IA, FL, MO.

No the Dems will look at polling data and say that all their incumbents are safe and in their eternal electoral stupidity throw a bunch of money at FL, IA, and MO.

I agree 100%. The Democrats are going to light money on fire in Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Missouri.

[MATTROSE94]

Forgot to add AK

lol. The Democrats aren’t winning Wisconsin, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire.

In your World, no, in my world yes it's a blog, I can predict anything, if the Rs can predict AZ, NV and WI going R, I can predict a Filibuster Proof majority

Not one poll show NV going R  and NV has a female state legislature like MA and NH does that's why CCM and Rosen will win

NV, WI, NH and NH doesn't even have voter Suppression

Demings doesn't win with a record like hers. In fact in 2017 when Hurricane Irma hit Florida, Demings voted against the Disaster Tax Relief and Airport and Airway Extension Act of 2017 that provided tax relief for the victims of Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Harvey. That will doom Demings' senate chances just like Ted Cruz's attack against Beto O'Rourke for his vote against that same bill partly helped Cruz win re-election.

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2017/roll542.xml

https://www.congress.gov/115/plaws/publ63/PLAW-115publ63.pdf

Also Herschel Walker about to announce a senate bid and Chris Sununu doing the same after NH's legislative session will put the Democrats on defense, which will force them to put more money on more battleground seats rather than OH, IA, FL, MO.

No the Dems will look at polling data and say that all their incumbents are safe and in their eternal electoral stupidity throw a bunch of money at FL, IA, and MO.

I agree 100%. The Democrats are going to light money on fire in Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Missouri.

Dems aren't gonna lose WI keep dreaming

Wisconsin is heavily trending Republican and Ron Johnson is a rock ribbed populist, which will help him with blue collar voters in the driftless region of Wisconsin and parts of Milwaukee.

[MATTROSE94]

He lost the last two polls 48/44%

When you factor in the inevitable polling errors in favor of Republicans, Ron Johnson is likely ahead by about 2-5%.

[MATTROSE94]

Sure

It is great that I convinced you to change your mind about Ron Johnson.