Predictions as of June 2021

[Ferguson97]

Republicans gain New Hampshire (Sununu) and Georgia (Herschel Walker). Democrats narrowly hold on to Arizona and Nevada. Pennsylvania is a nail-biter but goes Republican by ~0.1%.

Overall R+2, for a 52R-48 composition.

[S019]

I am least confident about NV and PA

And if we add tossups:

[Burke Bro]

Republicans gain 3 seats for a 53-47 composition. The national environment is about even.

[😥]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI and NH goes D 52/48 Senate while GA goes to a runoff, Johnson is DONE

[MT Treasurer]

House: R+20 (233R-202D)
Senate: R+3 (AZ, NV, NH flip; Warnock is saved by the runoff)

Senate races within 5%: AZ, NV, NH, PA, WI, NC, GA (so the six closest states in US-PRES 2020 + NH)

I will add that this is on the R-friendly end of my range of plausible outcomes for 2022, and as you can see, several of these races are close enough that they could go D in a D overperformance nationally or a slightly D-leaning as opposed to just a slightly R-leaning environment. I am not expecting a 2010-type blowout at this point (there likely will be a bigger R wave if the D caucus really decides to ram through the vast majority of agenda items on the progressive 'wishlist', i.e., S 1, nuking the filibuster, implementing court-packing schemes, adding D.C., etc., but at this point it does not look like that will happen).

One thing that would surprise me is if Democrats managed to do well in the Senate races (or held the Senate, for that matter) while losing their House majority by a margin that cannot be described as razor-thin.

[AGA]

I agree with S019's map and would like to add that Georgia is probably safer for Democrats than Nevada and Arizona.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House: R+20 (233R-202D)
Senate: R+3 (AZ, NV, NH flip; Warnock is saved by the runoff)

Senate races within 5%: AZ, NV, NH, PA, WI, NC, GA (so the six closest states in US-PRES 2020 + NH)

I will add that this is on the R-friendly end of my range of plausible outcomes for 2022, and as you can see, several of these races are close enough that they could go D in a D overperformance nationally or a slightly D-leaning as opposed to just a slightly R-leaning environment. I am not expecting a 2010-type blowout at this point (there likely will be a bigger R wave if the D caucus really decides to ram through the vast majority of agenda items on the progressive 'wishlist', i.e., S 1, nuking the filibuster, implementing court-packing schemes, adding D.C., etc., but at this point it does not look like that will happen).

One thing that would surprise me is if Democrats managed to do well in the Senate races (or held the Senate, for that matter) while losing their House majority by a margin that cannot be described as razor-thin.

How do you account for this last poll had Kelly up by 10 pts

[MT Treasurer]

House: R+20 (233R-202D)
Senate: R+3 (AZ, NV, NH flip; Warnock is saved by the runoff)

Senate races within 5%: AZ, NV, NH, PA, WI, NC, GA (so the six closest states in US-PRES 2020 + NH)

I will add that this is on the R-friendly end of my range of plausible outcomes for 2022, and as you can see, several of these races are close enough that they could go D in a D overperformance nationally or a slightly D-leaning as opposed to just a slightly R-leaning environment. I am not expecting a 2010-type blowout at this point (there likely will be a bigger R wave if the D caucus really decides to ram through the vast majority of agenda items on the progressive 'wishlist', i.e., S 1, nuking the filibuster, implementing court-packing schemes, adding D.C., etc., but at this point it does not look like that will happen).

One thing that would surprise me is if Democrats managed to do well in the Senate races (or held the Senate, for that matter) while losing their House majority by a margin that cannot be described as razor-thin.

How do you account for this last poll had Kelly up by 10 pts

I don’t.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wish we would see polls from IA, OH, NC, we know Grayson internal poll has Rubio up 5, the D's won't show internal polls of any of these races because the D's are probably losing by 5

[S019]

House: R+20 (233R-202D)
Senate: R+3 (AZ, NV, NH flip; Warnock is saved by the runoff)

Senate races within 5%: AZ, NV, NH, PA, WI, NC, GA (so the six closest states in US-PRES 2020 + NH)

I will add that this is on the R-friendly end of my range of plausible outcomes for 2022, and as you can see, several of these races are close enough that they could go D in a D overperformance nationally or a slightly D-leaning as opposed to just a slightly R-leaning environment. I am not expecting a 2010-type blowout at this point (there likely will be a bigger R wave if the D caucus really decides to ram through the vast majority of agenda items on the progressive 'wishlist', i.e., S 1, nuking the filibuster, implementing court-packing schemes, adding D.C., etc., but at this point it does not look like that will happen).

One thing that would surprise me is if Democrats managed to do well in the Senate races (or held the Senate, for that matter) while losing their House majority by a margin that cannot be described as razor-thin.

How do you account for this last poll had Kelly up by 10 pts

When the Democrat is at 48% in a swing state, the undecideds clearly lean Republican, perhaps not enough to get the Republican over the top, but Kelly isn't winning by 10 even against Kelli Ward. Anyways, you've followed elections long enough to know that early margins can be deceiving due to the high undecideds, does anyone remember TN 2018 or WI 2016? Early margins were deceiving in that race, and they'll be deceiving here too, even if Kelly has a way better chance of winning than Bredesen and probably (with hindsight) Feingold did.

[NewYorkExpress]

Alabama: Mo Brooks defeats Vivian Davis Figures (R Hold)

Alaska: Kelly Tshibaka, Lisa Murkowski, Al Gross and Sarah Palin advance from top-four primary. Sarah Palin defeats Lisa Murkowski, Al Gross and Kelly Tshibaka in General Election (R Hold)

Arizona: Mark Kelly defeats Mark Brnovich (D Hold)

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Jack Foster (R Hold)

California: Alex Padilla defeats Eleni Kounalakis (D Hold)

Colorado: Michael Bennet defeats John Cooke (D Hold)

Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Bob Stefanowski (D Hold)

Florida: Val Demings defeats Marco Rubio (D Gain)

Georgia: Herschel Walker defeats Raphael Warnock (R Gain)

Hawaii: Brian Schatz wins unopposed (D Hold)

Idaho: Mike Crapo defeats James Vandermaas (R Hold)

Illinois: Tammy Duckworth defeats Adam Kinzinger (D Hold)

Indiana: Todd Young defeats Thomas McDermott Jr. (R Hold)

Iowa: Pat Grassley defeats Abby Finkenauer (R Hold)

Kansas: Jerry Moran defeats Kathleen Sebelius (R Hold)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Charles Booker (R Hold)

Louisiana: John Kennedy defeats John Bel Edwards (R Hold)

Maryland: Chris Van Hollen defeats Boyd Rutherford (D Hold)

Missouri: Vicky Hartzler defeats Scott Sifton (R Hold)

Nevada: Catherine Cortez Masto defeats Adam Laxalt (D Hold)

New Hampshire: Chris Sununu defeats Maggie Hassan (R Gain)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Brett Yagel (D Hold)

North Carolina: Cheri Beasley defeats Pat McCrory (D Gain)

North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Michael Steele (R Hold)

Ohio: Tim Ryan defeats Josh Mandel (D Gain)

Oklahoma: James Lankford reelected unopposed (R Hold)

Oregon: Ron Wyden defeats Jo Rae Perkins (D Hold)

Pennsylvania: John Fetterman defeats Sean Parnell (D Gain)

South Carolina: Tim Scott defeats Krystie Matthews (R Hold)

South Dakota: John Thune defeats Billie Sutton (R Hold)

Utah: Mike Lee defeats Ben McAdams (R Hold)

Vermont: Patrick Leahy defeats David Zuckerman (no Republican candidate running, D Hold)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Matt Shea (D Hold)

Wisconsin: Ron Kind defeats Ron Johnson (D Gain)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are 500 not 180 days out from an Election a blue wave can develop not this yr but next yr, we didn't win 33H seats in 2017/ we won them on ADS in 2018

Blue dogs, Ryan, Jackson, Crist helps Deming's, Kelly and Fetterman can all win next yr


The only reason why Blue Dog Bullock lost was due to Gianforte not Daines, the only one that can beat Tester, and he is Gov

There are House effects or Bradley effects to these polls take them with a grain of salt

But, the idea of D's losing WI, and Tammy Baldwin won by lopsided margins is silly, that WI is OH and IA,  but we can certainly win OH with blue dog Ryan, that's why I donated the him and Whaley

[MATTROSE94]

Alabama: Mo Brooks defeats Vivian Davis Figures (R Hold)

Alaska: Kelly Tshibaka, Lisa Murkowski, Al Gross and Sarah Palin advance from top-four primary. Sarah Palin defeats Lisa Murkowski, Al Gross and Kelly Tshibaka in General Election (R Hold)

Arizona: Mark Kelly defeats Mark Brnovich (D Hold)

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Jack Foster (R Hold)

California: Alex Padilla defeats Eleni Kounalakis (D Hold)

Colorado: Michael Bennet defeats John Cooke (D Hold)

Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Bob Stefanowski (D Hold)

Florida: Val Demings defeats Marco Rubio (D Gain)

Georgia: Herschel Walker defeats Raphael Warnock (R Gain)

Hawaii: Brian Schatz wins unopposed (D Hold)

Idaho: Mike Crapo defeats James Vandermaas (R Hold)

Illinois: Tammy Duckworth defeats Adam Kinzinger (D Hold)

Indiana: Todd Young defeats Thomas McDermott Jr. (R Hold)

Iowa: Pat Grassley defeats Abby Finkenauer (R Hold)

Kansas: Jerry Moran defeats Kathleen Sebelius (R Hold)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Charles Booker (R Hold)

Louisiana: John Kennedy defeats John Bel Edwards (R Hold)

Maryland: Chris Van Hollen defeats Boyd Rutherford (D Hold)

Missouri: Vicky Hartzler defeats Scott Sifton (R Hold)

Nevada: Catherine Cortez Masto defeats Adam Laxalt (D Hold)

New Hampshire: Chris Sununu defeats Maggie Hassan (R Gain)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Brett Yagel (D Hold)

North Carolina: Cheri Beasley defeats Pat McCrory (D Gain)

North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Michael Steele (R Hold)

Ohio: Tim Ryan defeats Josh Mandel (D Gain)

Oklahoma: James Lankford reelected unopposed (R Hold)

Oregon: Ron Wyden defeats Jo Rae Perkins (D Hold)

Pennsylvania: John Fetterman defeats Sean Parnell (D Gain)

South Carolina: Tim Scott defeats Krystie Matthews (R Hold)

South Dakota: John Thune defeats Billie Sutton (R Hold)

Utah: Mike Lee defeats Ben McAdams (R Hold)

Vermont: Patrick Leahy defeats David Zuckerman (no Republican candidate running, D Hold)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Matt Shea (D Hold)

Wisconsin: Ron Kind defeats Ron Johnson (D Gain)

Boy I wish that the Senate results were D+3. It is more likely going to be R+3 in the Senate and R+15-20 in the House of Representatives.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna win in 2022 wait and see

[MATTROSE94]

House: R+20 (233R-202D)
Senate: R+3 (AZ, NV, NH flip; Warnock is saved by the runoff)

Senate races within 5%: AZ, NV, NH, PA, WI, NC, GA (so the six closest states in US-PRES 2020 + NH)

I will add that this is on the R-friendly end of my range of plausible outcomes for 2022, and as you can see, several of these races are close enough that they could go D in a D overperformance nationally or a slightly D-leaning as opposed to just a slightly R-leaning environment. I am not expecting a 2010-type blowout at this point (there likely will be a bigger R wave if the D caucus really decides to ram through the vast majority of agenda items on the progressive 'wishlist', i.e., S 1, nuking the filibuster, implementing court-packing schemes, adding D.C., etc., but at this point it does not look like that will happen).

One thing that would surprise me is if Democrats managed to do well in the Senate races (or held the Senate, for that matter) while losing their House majority by a margin that cannot be described as razor-thin.

How do you account for this last poll had Kelly up by 10 pts

When the Democrat is at 48% in a swing state, the undecideds clearly lean Republican, perhaps not enough to get the Republican over the top, but Kelly isn't winning by 10 even against Kelli Ward. Anyways, you've followed elections long enough to know that early margins can be deceiving due to the high undecideds, does anyone remember TN 2018 or WI 2016? Early margins were deceiving in that race, and they'll be deceiving here too, even if Kelly has a way better chance of winning than Bredesen and probably (with hindsight) Feingold did.

OC used to post pretty accurate predictions up until 2012 or 2014, so I don’t know what changed in him. Maybe the stresses of law school and working as a mall security guard have gotten to him?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Those are your Prediction, everyone will predict their own when the maps come out, it certainly won't be yours and we all gonna vote, polls are useless when Election day arrived that's why polls were off

[LabourJersey]

Republicans gain New Hampshire, Democrats gain Pennsylvania. No net change, still 50-50 in the Senate until 2024 (when the GOP will almost certainly gain the Senate)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Republicans gain New Hampshire, Democrats gain Pennsylvania. No net change, still 50-50 in the Senate until 2024 (when the GOP will almost certainly gain the Senate)

Sure

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jim Jordan already says he is staying in the H he isn't running for Sen or Gov they asked him to run already

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

52/48 So much for Chris Sununu, Biden is plus 8 over Trump in NH, Hassan will win, Users need to stop acting like WI is OH, it's not Baldwin won by 10pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is gone for Ds

[UWS]

For states like NV and AZ, I know the Dems are favored but it might depend on the recent border crisis. If it goes better, the tendency remains the same but if it gets worse, NV and AZ will become more competitive at the point of becoming battleground states.

[CookieDamage]

Republicans gain New Hampshire, Democrats gain Pennsylvania. No net change, still 50-50 in the Senate until 2024 (when the GOP will almost certainly gain the Senate)

My prediction too

[Tekken_Guy]

AL: Brooks
AK: Murkowski
AR: Boozman
AZ: Brnovich
CA: Padilla
CO: Bennet
CT: Blumenthal
FL: Rubio
GA: Walker
HI: Schatz
ID: Crapo
IL: Duckworth
IN: Young
IA: P. Grassley
KS: Moran
KY: Paul
LA: Kennedy
MD: Van Hollen
MO: Schmitt
NV: Laxalt
NH: Sununu
NY: Schumer
NC: Budd
ND: Hoeven
OH: Timken
OK: Lankford
OR: Wyden
PA: Parnell
SC: Scott
SD: Thund
UT: Lee
VT: Leahy
WA: Murray
WI: Gallagher