2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[MATTROSE94]

Using the sunshine precedent, Dems need a 292K lead in NC.

What is their lead in North Carolina right now?

[MATTROSE94]

+5M votes in the morning update. We are now at 45M, a third of the total 2016 votes.

Texas turnout is at... 66%(!!) of 2016.

Honestly, with those number, Joe Biden wins Texas narrowly (probably by a 1960, 1968, or 1976-esque margin). There is no way that John Cornyn loses due to ticket-splitting on the Dallas, Houston, and Fort Worth suburbs. For MJ Hegar to win, Joe Biden would have to win Texas by about 20%, which a Democrat won’t get in Texas until at least 2028 based on current trends.

[MATTROSE94]

Any TX people that can tell us what the early voting trends can tell us about congressional races?  I'm assuming boosted turnout in the cities and suburbs is not helpful for certain republicans.

From what I can determine, John Cornyn is on track for a 2002 or 2008-esque Senate victory, as there is a lot of ticket-splitting in the Dallas, Houston, Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso suburbs.